There's a lot of action on Memorial Day, and inside we look at plays from MLB, NBA and the NHL . . . << MORE >>

Dave Tuley gives out his pick in Monday night's Game 7 between the San Antonio Spurs and the New Orleans Hornets, plus a baseball selection . . . << MORE >>

    People ask me all the time the easiest/quickest way to get my plays, and the clear answer is to check the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. I try to do these "Tuley the Tout" blogs but sometimes I don't have the time with my other projects. When that happens, I definitely try to post them like I did Tuesday night. I went with the four road underdogs in Tuesday and Wednesday night's games, despite the fact that home teams/favorites were 15-1 straightup and 14-2 against the spread, and covered three of the four even though none of them pulled the outright upset.
    Part of the reason I took those underdogs was that's what I do. But, in addition, it just seemed like a good time to jump in front of the trend. We see this all the time in sports betting, the market usually corrects itself. Oddsmakers don't like it when teams/trends go on runs like we saw in the first half of this round. Bettors tend to bet the favorites, and to have them covering game after game had to have them looking to adjust to take value away from the chalk bettors. Think about it: with most of the series tightening up, you would think the lines would be going down but they were staying high because bookmakers didn't want to give any value to favorite bettors. So, now, while home teams are 19-1 SU, they're just 15-5 ATS, which is still 75 percent. I'll tread a little lighter.
    On Thursday night, we just have one game as the Pistons-Magic series is over. I'll take the Hornets +7 at the Spurs as they try to close out the series instead of having to go home for a Game 7 against the more experienced defending champions. They may or may not get it done, but I think they stay within the number.
    On Friday, I'll pass on the early game as the Cavaliers are 3-point favorites over the Celtics. With Boston having such a wide home/road dichotomy, I just can't back them as the dog (but don't feel like laying the short price with the Cavs either). In the second game, I'll take the Lakers +4. The Jazz have had the strongest home court this season, but I also think the Lakers are the best team in the West and will break through by clinching on the road.

MLB

    I haven't been posting any baseball plays lately, but the underdogs have been coming in nicely, so I'll toss out some short dogs on Friday's card as we get into some interleague action.

Yankees +120 vs. Mets (they're facing Santana, but I'll take Yankees as home dog almost every time)
Rays +100 vs. Cardinals (break up the Rays!!!, leaders of the AL East)
Dodgers +115 vs. Angels (Dodgers' ninth-inning rally Wednesday night carried over into Thursday win)

    Check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums late Friday or early Saturday to see if I find any live underdogs for Saturday.

ARENA FOOTBALL

    I've done well with my unders lately. I'm leaning toward the Tampa Bay-Grand Rapids under 112.5 on Friday night, and the Utah-San Jose under 119.5 on Saturday night. Again, I might expand on these in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums.

HORSE RACING

    My selections in Saturday's Preakness (as well as Friday's Pimlico Special and the Black-Eyed Susan) and the analysis behind the picks will be available at Bodoglife.com either later Thursday or first thing Friday, but I'll repeat here what I've been posting in the forums for the better part of the past two weeks: I'm looking to bet against Big Brown once again and make him prove he's a superhorse to continue to excel with a relative lack of experience and continue to take on all comers. He also has a history of foot problems, and that could take a toll as he had five weeks off after the Florida Derby and now has to come back two weeks after the Kentucky Derby to run in the Preakness (and if he survives this test, he'll have to come back in three weeks in the Belmont for two races in that same five-week span in which trainer Richard Dutrow only had to get him ready for one).
    I can see any number of horses knocking him off in the Preakness. My top pick is Behindatthebar, who won the Grade 2 at Lexington and could have run in the Derby but trainer Todd Pletcher (to his credit) made the right decision for the horse and rested him for this race. Gayego certainly had an excuse with a poor start in the Derby and could revert to his form in the Arkansas Derby that could put him right in the mix. And my longshot play is Icabad Crane, who is the only horse with a win over the Pimlico course. Trainer Graham Motion has also won 5 of the last 7 times he's used jockey Jeremy Rose, who won this race with Afleet Alex three years ago.

There is plenty of sporting action this weekend, even as we're in the week between the Derby and the Preakness. Inside, there's discussions of the NBA and NHL playoffs, plus arena football, horse racing and even lacrosse (sort of) . . . << MORE >>

Favorites have been rolling in the playoffs, but Tuleythetout dares to jump in with some underdogs this week . . .<< MORE >>

It's the First Saturday in May, so that means it's Derby Day. Tuley the Tout has his top horses in the Run for the Roses, plus some prop wagers to consider. Plus, he likes an NBA playoff game for after the race . . .<< MORE >>

    It's a great feeling when you're winning, especially when doing it as a public handicapper when you not only get the cash but also the accolades. However, I've written many times about the dangers of getting overconfident. The key is to still stay objective. It's easier said than done, but I've also said that many times the best betting decisions we make are when we decide not to bet.
    That was tested Tuesday. I was swamped with Kentucky Derby preparations and another article I was doing for the Daily Racing Form on the National Handicapping Championship and its Tour. But even though I was pressed for time, I really wanted to make some sports bets and post them to "strike while the iron is hot." I went over the basketball, hockey and baseball cards and wasn't blown away by anything. I liked the 76ers to stay within single digits vs. the Pistons and thought the Jazz would close out the Rockets after winning the last three playoff meetings in Houston, and I liked the Suns to stay close to the Spurs. I also liked the NHL's Sharks to bounce back from a 2-0 deficit at the Dallas Stars. I fought the urge throughout the day, but never felt compelled enough to post the plays. I'm sure I would have if I really felt strongly about them, so I decided to pass (which wasn't too hard of a decision as I said I was pretty tied up with other projects).
    And I'm glad I had the willpower. The 76ers lost by 16, the Jazz got blown out by 26 and I only would have gotten a push with the Suns as they lost by 5. And the Sharks lost in overtime. It would have been a pretty brutal day, and I would have even felt worse if I had forced the plays just because I felt I was hot or out of some sense of obligation to people who were asking for picks since I had been on a roll. I feel much better about tonight's card as well as a play on Thursday"

NBA

    I'll take the Hawks +14 vs. the Celtics. This is the series that has shocked just about everyone (myself included) as it's tied 2-2 with both teams holding serve at home. The Hawks are back in the series with a lot of confidence, and while I don't expect them to win this game or the series, the 14-point spread seems way too high with the Hawks feeling they can play with the Celtics. In addition, Boston has been pretty much expected to run through the Eastern Conference, and you know the NBA and the networks have to be sweating with all the promotional tie-ins with the Celtics. I think they'll be feeling the pressure of all the expectations and this game should come down to the final minutes.
    In the other game tonight, I think the Cavaliers will close out their series with the Wizards. They took their best shot (figuratively and literally) and bounced back to win Game 4 and lead the series 3-1. However, I'm not going to lay the 5 points.
    On Thursday night, I'll take the Pistons -5 vs. the 76ers. While I think the Hawks will hang with the Celtics, I think the 76ers will be put away by the Pistons despite being at home.

NHL

    One of my rare losses lately was the Canadiens vs. the Flyers in Game 3 of their series. However, I still think they're the better team (or maybe it's just a bias vs. the Flyers) and will take the +110 on Wednesday night.
 

This blog includes an NBA total and two NBA sides from Monday, an NHL underdog on Monday, the under in the Arena Football League's Game of the Year, and a Kentucky Derby head-to-head matchup . . . << MORE >>

Inside, Tuley the Tout has 3 NBA plays, 2 MLB totals, and an AFL under in Monday's battle of unbeatens . . .<< MORE >>

The zig-zag theory (aka "loser of the last" theory) hasn't worked too well in recent years, and inside you'll find that I'm going against it three more times over the next two days . . .<< MORE >>