Tuley the Tout
Tuley the Tout

Preakness picks, plus more for weekend of May 14-16, 2010

Inside are my baseball picks for Friday, May 14, plus a look at the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, May 15, and the NBA and NHL playoffs over the weekend...<< MORE >>

Kentucky Derby 136 plus Saturday, May 1, sports picks

SATURDAY is Derby Day. I've gone on record on the ViewFromVegas Podcast  (it's a one-hour show if you want to download the archive from this past Tuesday, April 27) as well as other radio shows and at the seminar at the Plaza in downtown Las Vegas Friday night as making #5 Line of David my top play in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. My overall view of the race can be read in a "face-off" piece against fellow handicapping Steve Davidowitz at the Bodog.com website .

If you want to make your own picks on the Derby, there's still time to VFV's free Triple Crown Contest in the Forums (must be a member to enter...membership is free). Go to the OFFICIAL Contest Thread  for details and to post your $200 in mythical wagers on the Derby.

Here's my sports picks for Saturday:

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS
Reds-Cardinals UNDER 9...Bailey vs. Lohse...Paul Emmel behind the plate
Mets-Phillies UNDER 8 -120...Pelfrey vs. Halladay...Ron Kulpa behind the plate
Nationals-Marlins UNDER 9.5...Stammen vs. Volstad...Ted Barrett behind the plate
Pirates-Dodgers UNDER 8.5 -105...Duke vs. Monasterios...Doug Eddings behind the plate
Red Sox-Orioles UNDER 9.5 -120...Matsuzaka vs. Bergesen...Bill Miller behind the plate

MLB SIDES
Royals +230 vs. Rays...Davies vs. Price
Padres +110 vs. Brewers...Latos vs. Gallardo

NHL PLAYOFFS
Flyers +135 vs. Bruins

NBA PLAYOFFS
Celtics +7.5 vs. Cavaliers...Cavs were 2-3 ATS vs. Bulls...how hurt is LeBron?

Be sure to join us for the ViewFromVegas of everything that's going on Saturday in the VFV Forums .

2010 Final Four picks

I like one game more than the other in this Saturday's Final Four. I really like WEST VIRGINIA vs. Duke but then defer to my ViewFromVegas.com Podcast co-host John Kelly with his selection of Butler in the other national semifinal. << MORE >>

Tuley's NCAA opening-round picks

I ended the college basketball regular season and conference tournaments on a major roll. I went 15-4 against the spread during Championship Week and have been on an extended run of 39-19 over the final 3+ weeks. However, as I warned in my weekly Tuley the Tout thread in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums (http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussion.aspx?id=226722), the NCAA Tournament is a whole different dynamic and I'm losing a lot of the edges I had with being able to look back at team's previous meetings during the regular season and common in-conference opponents, etc.

However, I do feel confident in my handicapping after such a nice run and looking forward to the NCAA Tournament. Here's what I'm looking at for my top 8 plays...I'll be posting all 32 games on Wednesday.

THURSDAY
San Diego St. +3 vs. Tennessee
Old Dominion +2 vs. Notre Dame
Northern Iowa +1 1/2 vs. UNLV
Florida +4 1/2 vs. BYU
UTEP +2 1/2 vs. Butler

FRIDAY
Louisville -1 vs. California
New Mexico St. +13 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
Siena +4 vs. Purdue.

Here's two more VFV programming notes.

Please tune in to the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast Show Tuesday night in which I will be joined by John Kelly and Dr. Odds in going over the NCAA Tournament. The show is live at 7 p.m. Pacific (the link can be found here: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussion.aspx?id=226888) and can also be downloaded after the show is complete.

Also, ViewFromVegas.com is having a bracket contest as well as a spread/total contest on the NCAA Tournament, so check out those threads at the top of the VFV Forums for details: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussions.aspx

Best of luck in the tournament.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

NCAA b-ball picks for Friday, March 12 (Tuley on runs of 6-0, 10-2, 34-17)

Here's hoping you've been following my daily NCAA basketball picks in the "Tuley the Tout" threads at ViewFromVegas.com the past three weeks: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/user/Discussion.aspx?id=225355. After a slow start to the season, I've heated up the past three weeks as I've gone 34-17 (66.7%) against the spread, including 10-2 since this week's thread started on Monday and 3-0 each of the past two days. Hopefully I can continue that this weekend and into the NCAA Tournament next week.

Here are my 3 plays for Friday (going for third straight 3-0...a bonanza for parlay players

North Carolina St. +6 vs. Florida St....Wolfback won only meeting, and playing better now
Tulsa +3.5 vs. UTEP...lost twice to UTEP, but Tulsa needs game more and has home court
New Mexico St. +7 vs. Nevada...here, I think Nevada given took much for home court

Be sure to be a regular visitor to ViewFromVegas.com and especially the VFV Forums as we get more into March Madness. Another programming note is to mark your calendar for next Tuesday night, from 7-8 p.m. Pacific Time/10-11 p.m. Eastern, for the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast with our special guest co-host John Kelly back in studio to help us preview the NCAA tournament.

The ViewFromVegas website continues to grow. We received a nice boost in visitorship and people signing up this past week after yours truly and the website were mentioned in the sports betting blog of Chad Millman at ESPN.com. That's the link for accessing the story...the text is below for those who aren't an ESPN Insider...Millman didn't mention me and the site as much as the last time I appeared in his column, but I was the only Vegas expert mentioned twice as well as the only one to receive a link to his website, so that was awesome:


Five best sports books for watching the tourney

Monday, March 8, 2010

By CHAD MILLMAN

Know what I'm getting a lot of these days? Questions about where to watch the NCAA tournament in Las Vegas. Seems heading to The Strip for the first four days of March Madness is a really big deal. Who knew?

Anyway, I know how important it is to get expert information about the best places to go. And it's too much for one man -- namely me -- to handle. So I put out feelers to a bunch of wise guys, analysts and Vegas reporters I know to get the inside take on their faves. What's interesting -- and different than what you'd get by asking the average square -- is how they view what matters in a book. Comfort is nice. But they are a lot more interested in odds, limits and action. One thing they all agreed on: Get to the books early, even if it means going there straight from a night of gambling, without stopping in the room to recharge. "If you are in a group of more than two people, that means either camping out or staking your seats before 7 a.m. local time," Teddy Covers says. "Every major book in town is positively packed -- even the locals' joints like Green Valley Ranch or Red Rock."

So, herewith, are the consensus picks:

1. The M Resort -- The newbie on the scene won hands down. The M is on Las Vegas Boulevard, but it's a 15-minute drive from the main drag. It's not that big of a deal. I've made the trek half a dozen times. You'll spend more time stuck in traffic going from Mandalay to Caesars on a Saturday night. The book is nice, the chairs comfy and the food good. But the reasons it gets the nod from the wise guys are the high limits and the in-game wagering -- betting on spreads and odds that change with nearly every play -- which makes the book feel like the floor of a Wall Street trading firm during a game. "The best," Fezzik told me. "Not even close."

2. Hilton SuperBook -- "In this case," says Dave Cokin, a Vegas vet and radio host, "I think size does matter." The Hilton's SuperBook is the biggest sports book in the world. It also is consistently the first book to post point spreads, so any small mistakes can be taken advantage of if you are paying attention. Usually the Hilton opens a theater in the casino for spillover because, even with more than 300 seats, there isn't nearly enough room to accommodate all the degenerates visiting. "The theater," says Dave Tuley, who runs the Web site viewfromvegas.com, "is where Elvis played." If it was good enough for "The King" ...

3. MGM Grand -- This is the most theatrical of all the books, set up like the games are on stage and the bettors are in an amphitheater, one big audience rapt with attention. It's got 47 TVs, including 36 60-inch plasmas and three 16-foot by 12-foot monsters. And if you're lucky, you can get one of 50 or so seats with smaller individual TVs. But what gets the MGM on the list is the sports book skyboxes, the only ones in town. Granted, you'll have to bet like an NBA player to get one. But come on, it's just one weekend. What have you got to lose?

4. Mandalay Bay -- This is where you go when you've been to Vegas more often than you've been to the doctor in the past 10 years. You've done your time at the down-market joints and need some comfort. Mandalay has seats you'd like to steal and put in your house to replace your bed. And there are lots of them, around 300. For a book that's been around a little more than a decade, it still feels relatively new and, for Vegas at least, a little classy. Kind of like hanging out in the basement screening room at your richest high school buddy's house.

5. Caesars Palace -- The classic Vegas standby. Tuley reminded me that, years ago, The Mag did an issue called "99 Things To Do Before You Die." No. 5 on the list was visiting Caesars during the NCAA tourney. Honestly, it's not the most respected book on The Strip according to wise guys, but for four days in March, it will feel more like a tailgate than any other book. Lots of recently graduated frat guys choose it as their go-to spot for yearly trips to Vegas -- the same guys will step up to Mandalay in five years -- so be wary of backward hats and fist bumps. Get a seat around the coffee tables with individual TVs. But you might have to stay up all night to do it. There's no sleeping in the book, and security guards patrol all night to make sure people follow the rules.

Tuley the Tout: Picks for Weekend of Nov. 21-23

Here are this weekend's free picks as posted in the weekly Tuley the Tout thread in the VFV Forums. Go there for the latest line moves and how they affect the selections.

But before getting to that, a few reminders that the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast has been moved up to 7 p.m. PST Tuesdays for the live show, which can be accessed along with the archives at http://www.lvrocks.com/details.php?id=149. This week's show was again co-hosted by John Kelly and if you missed it you already missed Dave Tuley's lean on Colorado +17 vs. Oklahoma St. Thursday night (the Buffaloes nearly pulled off the huge upset before losing 31-28 but still easily covering the spread) and guest handicapper "tpking" giving the Dolphins over the Panthers. Download the 11/17/09 podcast to hear more analysis of this weekend's games.

Also of note, you can still enter the ViewFromVegas.com weekly football contests to win your choice of a free month of LIVE ODDS service from vegasinsider.com or dinner with Dave Tuley. This is the last weekend of the college contest but the NFL contest will continue through the end of the regular season with college bowl contests and an NFL playoff contest to come. See the VFV Forums for details.

This week's free selections

By Dave Tuley

Plays marked with an asterisk(*) are ones I consider best bets and intending to definitely play in the Leroy's College Challenge and the Hilton SuperContest. Please keep in mind that the lines quoted below often differ from those contest lines, which are locked in earlier in the week. This thread is meant to aid in real-world betting and I will often say I like a game but that I'm waiting for the public to steam it higher (as I play almost exclusively underdogs) to get the best price possible.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL (68-49-1 this season for a net profit of 14.1 units)
Louisville +11.5 vs. South Florida...drifting up but has probably reached peak (tpking had it 27-22)
Iowa St. +15 vs. Missouri...steaming higher so wait for peak (tpking had it 31-23)
*Kentucky +9 vs. Georgia...correction, as makana posted, Dr. Bob went against us so line up to 9.5 (tpking had it 25-23)
UConn +6 vs. Notre Dame...6 looking more solid as M has dropped from 6.5 (tpking had it 26-23)
*Air Force +10 vs. BYU...looks like 10 is best we'll see unless you got rare 10.5 (tpking had Air Force winning outright, 31-30)
Memphis +23.5 vs. Houston...grab +24 if you can get it (tpking had it 33-19)
*Army +2.5 vs. North Texas (wait to see if we get +3 (tpking had Army winning outright, 22-16)

NFL FOOTBALL (48-28-1 this season for a net profit of 17.3 units)
Bills +9 vs. Jaguars...Jags shouldn't be favored by this much over anyone (see two weeks ago vs. Chiefs)
Chiefs +10 vs. Steelers...we're still seeing inflated lines even with dogs barking lately
Ravens +1 vs. Colts...Colts moved to favoritism from earlier in week, I like that, gonna keep fading Colts
Falcons +6.5 vs. Giants...and why are Giants still getting so much respect? +7 looking possible so wait
*49ers +6.5 vs. Packers...not sure we'll get 7 here, but will still play as this should be low-scoring tight game
Seahawks +11 vs. Vikings...Seattle can actually win this if they don't beat themselves, grab 11 before it disappears
Redskins +11 vs. Cowboys...more inflation, though I don't like backing this Skins team
Bears +3 vs. Eagles...grab the 3 with lowest juice possible in case it disappears
*Titans +5 vs. Texans...Tennessee playing like last year; Texans still not reliable as fave

Tuley the Tout's free Breeders' Cup picks plus football games of Nov. 6-7 (and FREE contests)

Here are my picks for the Breeders' Cup Friday and Saturday, Nov. 6-7, plus my college and football picks for this weekend. It also invites everyone to enter a FREE Breeders' Cup handicapping contest in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums as well as football contests being held there every week, too.<< MORE >>

Tuley the Tout: Picks for weekend of Sept. 26-28

Hey, everyone. I haven't posted on this actual blog in a while -- since I've mostly moved my daily selections to the ViewFromVegas.com Forums since that seems like the preferred method for most people, but I thought it was time to post one of these along with the e-mail blast to "subscribers" of the blog (simply click the SUBSCRIBE button on the page if you found this through some other method).

I'm off to a pretty good start to the football season as I'm 16-11 (59.2%) with all posted college plays and 10-5 (66.7%) in the NFL, though I wrote what I hope was an amusing piece in Saturday's issues of Daily Racing Form about how I'm only 2-4 with my "best bets" in that publication: http://drf.com/news/content/10.html

Here are my plays for this weekend, along with some line analysis for when the best time is to place the wagers. These are the kinds of posts I do every day in my Tuley the Tout posts in the Forums. Please visit every day and join the discussions.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL (16-11 this season for a net profit of 3.9 units)
Buffalo +3 vs. Temple (starting to see some +3.5, wait to make sure you get that)
Central Florida +11 vs. East Carolina (still OK at +10.5)
Fresno St. +16 vs. Cincinnati (actually at +16.5 now)
Army +10 vs. Iowa St. (solid number, not likely to change)
UAB +13.5 vs. Texas A&M (starting to see +14 so make sure you grab that)
Ball St. +32.5 vs. Auburn (also climbing upward, which we like)
Kentucky +21.5 vs. Florida (ditto)
Idaho +16.5 vs. Northern Illinois (ditto, get the +17)
Colorado St. +16.5 vs. BYU (anti-swagger play vs. BYU; also up to +17)
Louisville +14 vs. Utah (ditto on anti-swagger play)
Iowa +10 vs. Penn St. (Penn St.'s soft schedule could haunt them)
New Mexico St. +10 vs. New Mexico (saw my first +11 on this game, so wait)
Washington St. +45.5 vs. USC (anti-swagger, can't pass up all these points)
Arizona +2.5 vs. Oregon St. (looks like it's steaming toward 3, so wait)

NFL FOOTBALL (10-5 this season for a net profit of 4.6 units)
Titans +3 vs. Jets (missed at open, but grab now if can get -120 or -115 on the +3)
Buccaneers +7 vs. Giants (I grabbed +7, so this is official...lots of 6.5 so shop around)
Lions +6.5 vs. Redskins (another play against Skins; didn't see 7; don't need it for official)
Dropped my lean on Seahawks
Bills +6 vs. Saints (hard to jump in front of Saints' train, but took at 6...don't think it's going higher)
Dolphins +? vs. Chargers (currently +6...don't like travel off Monday night...small play for me but not contest play)
Bengals +4 vs. Steelers (grab +4 ASAP, don't get stuck with 3.5)
Cardinals -2 vs. Colts (was hoping for plus-points...layed -2...still playable at -2.5, don't wait to lay -3)

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (123-93-13 on the season and a net profit of 16.85 units)
Phillies-Brewers UNDER 8.5 -105... Brian Knight 22-12 last year, 15-13-1 this year

MLB UNDERDOGS (net loss of 8.65 units)
Reds +115 vs. Astros
Tigers +150 vs. White Sox

ViewFromVegas.com is also the place to go to get the view from the oddsmakers in Las Vegas with the NCAA, NFL and MLB polls from Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the up-to-date future-book odds for sports as well as horse racing's Breeders' Cup and the 2010 Kentucky Derby, plus insights and trends, and the best coverage of the top football handicapping contests in town, including free selections from the top handicappers and consensus plays of all contestants posted each weekend.

NBA down to final four; other picks; podcast preview

Today's blog starts with the NBA playoffs moving into the conference championships with the Nuggets-Lakers series starting tonight and the Magic-Cavaliers on Wednesday. It should prove to be two interesting series. The Lakers and Cavaliers have been the favorites to reach the NBA Finals for a long time, but I don't see either as being a lock against the upstart Nuggets and Magic.

Before we get to today's plays, I want to post a reminder to tune into tonight's ViewFromVegas.com Podcast at 8 p.m. Pacific Time at: http://www.lvrocks.com/details.php?id=149 (be sure to click on the Cam & Chat to read/take part in the lively discussion that is often as entertaining as the actual show). We'll be giving the ViewFromVegas of Rachel Alexandra's victory over Mine That Bird in the Preakness, plus an update of our Triple Crown contest, plus a look at the NBA and NHL playoffs and everything else that is going on in the world of sports, including a discussion about Delaware approving sports betting last week. If you miss the live show, you can always catch it afterward or in the coming days in the archive at the above site (but with no live chat or webcam).

And now onto the picks:

NBA PLAYOFFS (11-15 for a net loss of 5.5 units)
Nuggets-Lakers UNDER 215 (slight lean to Nuggets +6.5)
Magic +8 vs. Cavaliers (Wednesday)

NHL PLAYOFFS (11-19 for a net loss of 2.45 units)
Blackhawks +300 series price vs. Red Wings (better than taking +180 in Game 2)

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (43-31-2 on the season and a net profit of 7.8 units)
No plays Tuesday...the best home-plate ump going on last year's stats was Dale Scott, who is working the Mets-Dodgers game tonight, at 20-13 with the under, but he's 3-5 this year with the under, plus the total is at 8 with Maine vs. Billingsly, so I have to pass.

MLB UNDERDOGS (41-56 for a net profit of 1.34 units)
Pirates +135 vs. Nationals
Giants +135 vs. Padres
Tigers +115 vs. Rangers
Angels +140 vs. Mariners

Good luck, everyone.  And don't forget to check the Forums each day as plays will be posted in the Tuley the Tout thread. Plays also are getting sent more often (and in a more timely fashion) to followers of twitter.com/viewfromvegas and I expect that to become even more common as I can post from my cell phone without having to log on to a computer or laptop. 

Preakness picks, plus baseball and NBA/NHL playoffs

First off on the Tuley the Tout docket this weekend is my Preakness breakdown that I did for Bodoglife.com. Normally, if I miss out on a longshot, I don't like betting them back the next race as a lot of people get on the bandwagon too late when the value on the horse is long gone (like Win Willy in the Arkansas Derby), but in the case of Mine That Bird, a lot of people aren't giving him his due respect after his Derby upset, so I think there could be value on him in the Preakness. Click here if you want to sign up at the Bodog Racebook and get a 10% Bonus.

On Friday, I lost with my lone MLB umpire total as I had the Orioles-Royals UNDER 8.5 and the Royals won 8-1 (so close but yet so far); however, I made up for that with 2 MLB underdogs pulling the upset with the Dodgers +120 vs. the Marlins and the Mets +155 vs. the Giants


MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (42-28-1 on the season and a net profit of 9.9 units)

Phillies-Nationals UNDER ???...they were rained out Friday and the scheduled umpire for Saturday was supposed to be Chuck Meriwether (21-12 with the under last year and 5-3 this year), so I want to bet the game he is behind the plate...I'll update this play Saturday in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums and to followers of twitter.com/viewfromvegas
Twins-Yankees UNDER 10...Marty Foster was 22-10-2 with the under last year, 4-2 this year
Royals-Orioles OVER 10 EV...Jerry Meals was 22-12 with the over last year, 5-1 this year


MLB UNDERDOGS (38-53 for a net loss of 0.11 units)

Diamondbacks +115 vs. Braves
Indians +150 vs. Rays


NBA PLAYOFFS (11-15 for a net loss of 5.5 units)

Magic-Celtics UNDER 186 points (Sunday)
Rockets +13 vs. Celtics (Sunday)


NHL PLAYOFFS (11-17 for a net loss of 0.45 units)

Blackhawks +170 vs. Red Wings (Sunday)
Hurricanes +180 vs. Penguins (Monday)



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