New York Jets (OVER 8)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Jets went 10-6 last year under first-year coach Eric Mangini, and there were no major losses to the team this off-season, so I was very surprised that this number is this low. With Mangini being a disciple of New England head coach Bill Belichick, the defense should continue to improve, and the offense adds running back Thomas Jones, who is a huge upgrade from the running-back-by-committee of Kevan Barlow-Leon Washington-Cedric Houston-Derrick Blaylock.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Jets get a tough draw with the Patriots and Ravens being their first two opponents, and I have them splitting their next two games vs. the Dolphins and Bills, but if they can be better than that 1-3 mark, they'll be in really great shape. The month of October isn't a cake-walk, but they get to face the Giants in the Meadowlands and the Eagles and Bills at home (around a road test at Cincinnati), so they should be in good shape for the stretch drive. Going through the schedule, I felt I was being conservative and still came up with nine wins.

Sept. 9 New England            L   

Sept. 16 at Baltimore      L

Sept. 23 Miami        W

Sept. 30 at Buffalo      L

Oct. 7 at New York Giants      W

Oct. 14 Philadelphia                W

Oct. 21 at Cincinnati                W

Oct. 28 Buffalo               W

Nov. 4 Washington          W

Nov. 11 BYE

Nov. 18 Pittsburgh          W

Nov. 22 at Dallas            L

Dec. 2 at Miami            L

Dec. 9 Cleveland          W

Dec. 16 at New England       L   

Dec. 23 at Tennessee              L 

Dec. 30 x-Kansas City         W

Buffalo Bills (UNDER 6)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Bills went 7-9 last year, but I felt they did that with mirrors and weren't that good. During the off-season, they lost linebackers London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes and cornerback Nate Clements, so I definitely there will be a dropoff on the defensive side of the ball. On offense, they traded running back Willis McGahee to Baltimore and replaced him with draft pick Marshawn Lynch of California, which could prove OK, but it seems like they're depending a lot on J.P. Losman to improve and I'm not so optimistic. That, combined with a challenging schedule, has me looking seriously at the under.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: It doesn't get much more dire than opening at home vs. the Broncos and then having road games at Pittsburgh and New England. Not people are expecting them to win any of those three games, and then they get the Jets and Cowboys at home (I have the game vs. the Jets as a W, but I think I'm perhaps giving the Bills too much credit for home field vs. a divisional rival). There is a chance that the Bills won't be favored in any game this year, with the December stretch vs. the Redskins, Dolphins and Browns being the most likely candidates.

Sept. 9 Denver              L

Sept. 16 at Pittsburgh       L        

Sept. 23 at New England      L

Sept. 30 New York Jets         W

Oct. 8 Dallas            L

Oct. 14 BYE

Oct. 21 Baltimore       L

Oct. 28 at New York Jets     L

Nov. 4 Cincinnati    L

Nov. 11 at Miami       L

Nov. 18 New England       L 

Nov. 25 at Jacksonville        L    

Dec. 2 at Washington             L

Dec. 9 Miami           W

Dec. 16 at Cleveland      W           

Dec. 23 New York Giants      L   

Dec. 30 at Philadelphia             L

New England Patriots (lean OVER 11.5)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: Despite being the team of the decade to this point, the Pats pretty quietly put together a 12-4 record last year with all the hype on other teams like the Colts and Chargers and even the Ravens. They've made a lot of moves in the off-season to improve their team with Randy Moss at receiver and Adalius Thomas at linebacker among many others. I'm not a huge proponent of betting overs, especially when they're above double digits, but it's hard to think of the Patriots having anything but a banner season (not that I'll be betting them against the spread as they'll be laying big points every week, starting with -6 at the Jets in Week 1).
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: When going over the schedule game by game for every team, I weighed how likely each team was to win and in every matchup this season, I came up with a win by the Pats. I don't think they'll go 16-0, but with the expection of the Nov. 4 game at Indianapolis and Dec. 3 at Baltimore, they should be favored in every game and double-digit favorites many times unless the team really underperforms. Big tests will come Sept. 16 vs. the Chargers, Oct. 1 at Cincinnati, and the aforementioned games at Indy and Baltimore, but I don't expect them to lose all four and should roll over most other opponents.

Sept. 9 at New York Jets     W

Sept. 16 San Diego        W

Sept. 23 Buffalo            W

Oct. 1 at Cincinnati         W

Oct. 7 Cleveland          W

Oct. 14 at Dallas          W

Oct. 21 at Miami          W

Oct. 28 Washington      W

Nov. 4 at Indianapolis       W     

Nov. 11 BYE

Nov. 18 at Buffalo            W

Nov. 25 x-Philadelphia         W   

Dec. 3 at Baltimore         W

Dec. 9 Pittsburgh            W

Dec. 16 New York Jets      W    

Dec. 23 Miami                 W

Dec. 29 at New York Giants     W          


Miami Dolphins (lean UNDER 7)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: This once-proud franchise has gone through a long drought (no playoffs since 2000) and seems to be starting over with Nick Saban bolting for Alabama and San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron being hired as head coach. Daunte Culpepper is also out and replaced by Trent Green, which is scary considering how porous the offensive line is and how prone Green is to injury. The defense should be solid, but will be hard-pressed to make up for the lack of offensive production, especially if Green goes down.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Dolphins have a winnable game in the opener at Washington, and could pick up a few more vs. the Raiders, Texans and Browns, but a 3-3 start or even 4-2 might not guarantee them of finishing at .500 or better. A big factor could be their Oct. 28 game in London vs. the Giants and how they handle the extreme travel. I have them winning their return game (after a bye) vs. the Bills, but that might be optimistic, and then the second half of their schedule is pretty tough with no more than two or three wins expected.

Sept. 9 at Washington          L