Houston Texans (UNDER 6.5)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Texans were 6-10 last year, and I don't see much change. The David Carr era is over and the Matt Schaub era begins. I've liked him as a backup for years, but the jury is still out on if he's good enough to be a full-time starter in the NFL. Frankly, I think Carr got a bum rap all these years because he never had time to throw, and the Texans still haven't done enough to improve the offensive line. So, I'm not sure how much can be expected from Schaub. The defense is slowly improving but don't think it can make up for the problems on offense. 
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: Like the Titans, they have to face the Colts and Jags twice a year, but unlike the Titans, they have to face the Titans twice, too. The rest of the schedule isn't a bargain either. They open vs. the Chiefs, Panthers and Colts. But even though I think they can knock off an overrated Chiefs team at home, I think the Schaub worshipping will be short-lived. Potential wins over the Falcons and Miami loom in Week 5 and 6, but then they get the Jaguars, Titans and Chargers. They can go to Oakland to win in Week 9, but I don't see much success down the stretch, though they could get victories over the Browns and/or Bucs, but that still doesn't get them to their total in my book.

Sept. 9 Kansas City     W 

Sept. 16 at Carolina     L

Sept. 23 Indianapolis      L      

Sept. 30 at Atlanta   L

Oct. 7 Miami           W

Oct. 14 at Jacksonville     L           

Oct. 21 Tennessee      L

Oct. 28 at San Diego  L             

Nov. 4 at Oakland    W

Nov. 11 BYE

Nov. 18 New Orleans     L 

Nov. 25 at Cleveland     L

Dec. 2 at Tennessee    L

Dec. 9 Tampa Bay   L

Dec. 13 Denver        L

Dec. 23 at Indianapolis     L            

Dec. 30 Jacksonville     L


Jacksonville Jaguars (OVER 9)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Jaguars sure seemed better than an 8-8 team last year. Of course, they lost their last three games to miss the playoffs. The defense should be strong again, and the running game should be stellar with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew sharing the load. The only thing keeping me from thinking this is one of the better over/under wagers is whether they're better off with Byron Leftwich or David Garrard.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: Before their bye week in Week 4, the Jags play the Titans, Falcons and Broncos. But if they get out of that with at least one win (and the home game vs. Atlanta should be a gimme), they'll be just fine as the schedule gets softer. In their next eight games after the bye, they should be favored in all of them except vs. the Colts and Chargers, and they get both those at home. Even if they aren't over their total of 9 by mid-December, they close vs. the Steelers, Raiders and Texans. I don't see worse than a push at 9-7. 

Sept. 9 Tennessee    L

Sept. 16 Atlanta       W

Sept. 23 at Denver   L

Sept. 30 BYE

Oct. 7 at Kansas City   W       

Oct. 14 Houston      W

Oct. 22 Indianapolis    W

Oct. 28 at Tampa Bay     W    

Nov. 4 at New Orleans    W

Nov. 11 at Tennessee          L     

Nov. 18 San Diego     W

Nov. 25 Buffalo       W

Dec. 2 at Indianapolis    L          

Dec. 9 Carolina        W

Dec. 16 at Pittsburgh    W           

Dec. 23 Oakland      W

Dec. 30 at Houston     W

Indianapolis Colts  (lean OVER 10.5)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: I kept the Colts last because I would usually fade the defending Super Bowl champs (teams tend to struggle in that role), but they are pretty talented and the defense should be better during the regular season, especially against the run. I will fade them in spots against the spread, but as the schedule below shows, it'll be hard for them to fall short of 11 victories. 
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Colts should be up for the home opener vs. the Saints in prime time, then go on the road at Tennessee and Houston before returning home vs. the Broncos and Buccaneers. I see them no worse than 3-2 by their bye week and probably 4-1. I actually have them down for three straight losses vs. the Jaguars, Panthers and Patriots, but then a showdown game vs. the Chargers should have them refocused the rest of the way (that's even if they get off track as I'm predicting). The thought is that either the Colts will bypass the 10.5 mark and coast in late December, but if they need to close out strong, they face the Raiders, Texans and Titans the last three weeks.

Sept. 6 New Orleans  W