Atlanta Falcons (UNDER 7)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: This is the season victory total that has undergone the most scrutiny lately with the dog-fighting allegations surrounding QB Michael Vick. Before the news broke, the number was 7.5 with the over at -165. Bettors decided to fade the Falcons and the under actually was favored at -120 by the time Vick was indicted. Since then, the number was dropped to 7 at the Las Vegas Hilton with -110 on each side. Normally, I would be the one to go against such a move, but in this case I think the Falcons will fall well short of that number. In addition to losing Vick (and incumbent backup Matt Schaub being dealt to the Texans before the Falcons knew what they were in for), Atlanta also lost blocking back Justin Griffith, who was like another offensive lineman leading the way, as well as defensive end Patrick Kearney and linebackers Edgerton Hartwell and Ike Reese. The Falcons, coming off a 7-9 campaign, look decidedly slower, weaker and less experienced on both sides of the ball. And then there is their schedule...
   SCHEDULE ANALSIS: Atlanta starts the season with road games at Minnesota and Jacksonville, then has to play division favorite Carolina. On Sept. 30, the Falcons host the Texans, and glancing over the schedule, this literally might be the only game in which they are favored all season. And if they're 0-3 prior to that game, that's no guarantee either, especially if Schaub is performing well heading into the matchup vs. his former team. On the road at Tennessee, home vs. the Giants, and it doesn't get much easier after their bye. On the list below, I have them only beating the Saints on Dec. 10, and that's not a gimme. Even if they pick up two or three more wins than I'm giving them credit for, they still fall short of 7.

Sept. 9 at Minnesota          L     

Sept. 16 at Jacksonville        L    

Sept. 23 Carolina     L

Sept. 30 Houston     W

Oct. 7 at Tennessee     L

Oct. 15 New York Giants    L 

Oct. 21 at New Orleans    L

Oct. 28 BYE

Nov. 4 San Francisco    L

Nov. 11 at Carolina    L

Nov. 18 Tampa Bay     L          

Nov. 22 Indianapolis       L     

Dec. 2 at St. Louis    L

Dec. 10 New Orleans     W  

Dec. 16 at Tampa Bay        L 

Dec. 23 at Arizona   L

Dec. 30 Seattle         L

Carolina Panthers (OVER 9)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Panthers went 8-8 last year after being many people's choice to rule the NFC. Unlike last year, if the Panthers stay healthy, they should bounce back. That's what they must be counting on because Carolina didn't do much in the free-agent market.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Panthers look like the class of the division, with the Bucs and Falcons falling on hard times and my feeling that the Saints will regress. Carolina has a tough opener at St. Louis, but even if they drop that one, they then have five straight winnable games vs. the Texans, Falcons, Bucs, Saints and Cardinals heading into their bye week. Tough games loom vs. the Colts and Titans, but then they get another soft stretch vs. the Falcons, Packers, Saints and 49ers. I see them at 9-3 at that point, with toughies vs. the Jaguars, Seahawks and Cowboys. A win or two more and they might be in position to rest starters in the finale vs. the Bucs and still be comfortably over the total of 9.

Sept. 9 at St. Louis   L

Sept. 16 Houston     W

Sept. 23 at Atlanta   W

Sept. 30 Tampa Bay    W           

Oct. 7 at New Orleans    W

Oct. 14 at Arizona   W

Oct. 21 BYE

Oct. 28 Indianapolis    L

Nov. 4 at Tennessee      L         

Nov. 11 Atlanta       W

Nov. 18 at Green Bay  W       

Nov. 25 New Orleans    W

Dec. 2 San Francisco         W      

Dec. 9 at Jacksonville             L

Dec. 16 Seattle         W

Dec. 22 Dallas          L

Dec. 30 at Tampa Bay     W

New Orleans Saints (UNDER 9)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Saints went 10-6 last year and were the darlings of the league with their feel-good story returning to the Superdome a year after hurricanes devasted the region, but even though head coach Sean Payton has made all the right moves, I think the Saints won't be able to maintain that high level of play and will fall short of their total. They won't sneak up on people like they seemed to do last season.. The defense overachieved, and offensive coordinators should adjust. The offense should still excel, but things probably won't come as easy now that receiver Marques Colston isn't a secret and teams will be more prepared for the tandem Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Saints open the season in prime time on Sept. 6 vs. the defending Super Bowl champion Colts (on the road no less). They should get wins at Tampa Bay and at home vs. the Titans, but after their bye they have to take on the Panthers and Seahawks. Most of the weaker opponents they face the rest of the season are on the road, so I see them struggling to stay above .500, and then they close their season vs. the Eagles and Bears.

Sept. 6 at Indianapolis        L    

Sept. 16 at Tampa Bay         W

Sept. 24 Tennessee  W

Sept. 30 BYE

Oct. 7 Carolina        L

Oct. 14 at Seattle     L

Oct. 21 Atlanta        W

Oct. 28 at San Francisco    L 

Nov. 4 Jacksonville  L

Nov. 11 St. Louis     L

Nov. 18 at Houston     W

Nov. 25 at Carolina     L

Dec. 2 Tampa Bay      W

Dec. 10 at Atlanta      L

Dec. 16 Arizona       W

Dec. 23 Philadelphia     L          

Dec. 30 at Chicago     L

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (lean UNDER 7)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR : The Bucs were 4-12 last year and made a lost of personnel changes in the off-season, but the names of Jeff Garcia, Cato June, Like Petitgout and Kevin Carter aren't likely to inspired much optimism for a sudden turnaround. Garcia performed great in relief of Donovan McNabb in Philly, but this team isn't close to Philly in overall talent. Cadillac Williams should rebound from his sophomore jinx, but there just aren't enough weapons to go with him. And the defense is unlikely to be much improved, too. 
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Bucs travel to Seattle for the opener and then take on the Saints, Rams, Panthers, Colts and Titans in succession. I have them starting 0-6 before a win over the Lions. Even if they pick up one more early win, I can't see them getting to 7 wins on the season. They do get a stretch vs. the Cardinals, Falcons, Redskins, Saints, Texans and Falcons again, so that's why I'm just going with a "lean."

Sept. 9 at Seattle      L

Sept. 16 New Orleans   L

Sept. 23 St. Louis     L

Sept. 30 at Carolina     L

Oct. 7 at Indianapolis     L       

Oct. 14 Tennessee   L

Oct. 21 at Detroit    W

Oct. 28 Jacksonville     L

Nov. 4 Arizona        L

Nov. 11 BYE

Nov. 18 at Atlanta     W

Nov. 25 Washington    W        

Dec. 2 at New Orleans    L

Dec. 9 at Houston    L

Dec. 16 Atlanta       L

Dec. 23 x-at San Francisco     L

Dec. 30 Carolina      L