St. Louis Rams (OVER 7.5)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Rams were 8-8 last year but outgained a lot of their opponents and were a few plays away from being a playoff team. The defense is a concern as it allowed 23.8 points per game (28th in the league). The team drafted run-stopper Adam Carriker from Nebraska and traded for defensive end James Hall from Detroit, but though they should help, it'll still be the offense that carries the team. And the offense should be up to it. Running back Steven Jackson had a breakout year and is the focus of the offense, and that opens up the passing game for quarterback Marc Bulger, who has several new exciting weapons this season. The Rams lost receiver Kevin Curtis to Philadelphia, but he'll be more than replaced by Drew Bennett, formerly of Tennessee. His size, hands and route-running ability makes him a great compliment to Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, plus tight end Randy McMichael comes over from Miami to give Bulger a big target over the middle. In addition, the Rams traded for kick returner Dante Hall, who everyone will expect to improve the special teams (especially moving from the grass in K.C. to the fast track indoors in St. Louis), but I also think he could have an impact from scrimmage. For several years, the Chiefs tried getting Hall involved on offense with limited success. However, with all of the other weapons on the Rams, Hall could be very effective in the slot with a lot of open space to work with.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Rams have a tough opener against the Panthers, another team expected to improve on last year's 8-8 record. The good news is that the game is at home. Vegas sports books have the Rams as a slight 1-point favorite, so I'll put it in the win column. A loss wouldn't be devastating, but a win would really get them off and running as they have winnable games the next two weeks at home vs. the 49ers and then at Tampa Bay. A Week 4 matchup vs. Dallas could be pivotal. I have it down as a loss, but if the Rams have early momentum, they could have a big edge as the Cowboys will be coming off a game at Chicago. I have the Rams losing games in October vs. the Ravens and Seahawks, as well as a December loss at home vs. Pittsburgh, but I still have them winning 10 on the season, so I'm thinking the 7.5 is way too low.

Sept. 9 Carolina       W

Sept. 16 San Francisco   W

Sept. 23 at Tampa Bay      W   

Sept. 30 at Dallas     L

Oct. 7 Arizona         W

Oct. 14 at Baltimore    L           

Oct. 21 at Seattle     L

Oct. 28 Cleveland    W

Nov. 4 BYE

Nov. 11 at New Orleans    W

Nov. 18 at San Francisco L

Nov. 25 Seattle        W

Dec. 2 Atlanta         W

Dec. 9 at Cincinnati L

Dec. 16 Green Bay   W

Dec. 20 Pittsburgh   L

Dec. 30 at Arizona   W

Seattle Seahawks (OVER 9)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: Coming off their Super Bowl loss the previous season, the Seahawks struggled at times last year but still finished 9-7 to make the playoffs. They're still the class of the division, but the gap is closing. As Shaun Alexander goes, so go the Seahawks, but the offense could take a step back with the loss of receiver Darrell Jackson to the 49ers (it's not often you see a key player traded to a divisional rival). Anyway, the defense was addressed through free agency and the draft. The secondary lost safety Ken Hamlin, but picked up Deon Grant from Jacksonville and Brian Russell from Cleveland as well as using a second-round pick on cornerback Josh Wilson from Maryland. In a pass-happy division, how those players and secondary coach/assistant head coach Jim Mora Jr. fare will likely determine the Seahawks' fate.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The Seahawks have a relatively easy start to the season with a home game vs. the Buccaneers and a road game at Arizona. Overall, I have them at 11-5 and that includes a loss at Pittsburgh vs. a Steelers team that I actually don't expect to do too well. The key to the Seahawks exceeding nine wins might be the Week 16 game at Baltimore.

Dec. 30 at Atlanta   W


San Francisco 49ers (UNDER 7.5)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The 49ers were 7-9 last year and certainly exceeded my expectations as I thought they would be the worst team in the league. Frank Gore was a stud at running back and quarterback Alex Smith showed he's not a bust. A lot of people are expecting San Fran to improve more but I think their overachievement last year will be followed by a plateau right around the seven-win mark. The defense allowed a league-worst 25.8 points per game and the additions of cornerback Nate Clements from Buffalo, Michael Lewis from Philadelphia and other marginal players can only help so much.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: The season-opener vs. Cardinals, in my opinion, will determine which of these teams have an outside chance of exceeding their season win total. The loser will be behind the eight-ball (a little joke there as the 49ers' over/under is 7.5 and the Cardinals are 7). I put the W in the 49ers' column, but I still think they'll fall short of .500

Sept. 10 Arizona      W

Sept. 16 at St. Louis L

Sept. 23 at Pittsburgh  L             

Sept. 30 Seattle        L

Oct. 7 Baltimore      L

Oct. 14 BYE

Oct. 21 at New York Giants             L

Oct. 28 New Orleans                W

Nov. 4 at Atlanta     W

Nov. 12 at Seattle    L

Nov. 18 St. Louis     W

Nov. 25 at Arizona  W

Dec. 2 at Carolina    L

Dec. 9 Minnesota     W

Dec. 15 Cincinnati   L

Dec. 23 x-Tampa Bay         W

Dec. 30 at Cleveland               W

Arizona Cardinals (lean under 7)
   CHANGES FROM LAST YEAR: The Cardinals were 5-11 last year and begin yet another rebuilding project under a new coach (though it's hard to say "rebuilding" when that implies it was built well at any point as the Cards have been bad for years). Former Steelers offense coordinator Ken Whisenhut takes over and has brought in his own coaching staff, including offensive line coach Russ Grimm from Pittsburgh, and many new players. While all areas should be improved, it's hard to think of everything jelling in his first year with so many areas to address. The offense should especially improve with the new coaches and first-round pick Levi Brown from Penn St. adding protection for quarterback Matt Leinart, but the defensive problems will take more time.
   SCHEDULE ANALYSIS: Again, Week 1 is key for the Cards but it doesn't help that they have to go on the road to San Fran. The schedule-makers didn't do the Cardinals any favors as they then play Seattle and Baltimore the next two weeks. I even gave Arizona a win at Pittsburgh vs. Whisenhut's former team, plus a three-game winning streak vs. Washington, Tampa Bay and Detroit, but that still only got them to seven wins overall. That's why I put "lean" on the recommendation here because I think the under is the only way to look even though I won't be betting it myself.

Sept. 10 at San Francisco   L

Sept. 16 Seattle        L

Sept. 23 at Baltimore L

Sept. 30 Pittsburgh   W

Oct. 7 at St. Louis    L

Oct. 14 Carolina      L

Oct. 21 at Washington             W

Oct. 28 BYE

Nov. 4 at Tampa Bay          W

Nov. 11 Detroit       W

Nov. 18 at Cincinnati   L            

Nov. 25 San Francisco L

Dec. 2 Cleveland      W

Dec. 9 at Seattle       L

Dec. 16 at New Orleans    W

Dec. 23 Atlanta       W

Dec. 30 St. Louis      L