NFL over/under updates
I wanted to give a little update on NFL over/under season win totals around the league heading into the second full weekend of preseason games.
There really hasn't been too much movement in the market as only three teams have different numbers than the ones posted several weeks ago in the division-by-division previews. Those three are the Falcons (predictably as Michael Vick's legal woes continue to escalate), who were at 7.5 wins earlier this summer, then adjusted to 7 after early betting on the Falcons' under, and are now 6.5 with the under favored at -120; the Eagles, who were at 9 but have been bet to 9.5; and the Lions, who were listed at 6 but are now at 6.5. If you read through my team previews, I appear to be correct in saying that the line on the Falcons was too high and the Eagles were too low, but I certainly would have thought the Lions' total would go down instead of up.
Any other movement has just been seen in the money line attached to the overs and unders, with most odds being adjusted somewhere between 10 and 30 cents, nothing too drastic. Overall, most of the moves have been in the direction of my recommendations, which means I either have a good handle on the marketplace, or I've got some followers.
The movement I'm most proud of is on the Rams, who have an over/under of 7.5 wins. The line on the over was even-money when I first gave out the play on the Leroy's Sports Hour radio show back on July 13. I didn't bet it until it had already gone to -110 when quarterback Marc Bulger agreed to contract terms (I didn't want to get stuck in case he did hold out), but the over continued to get bet by someone else and is now at -140 at the Hilton.
Of course, even being on the "right side" doesn't mean it will be a winner, but I like my position.
With the numbers not moving much, there's not many changes in my recommendations at this time, though since I liked the Lions at UNDER 6, I really like them at UNDER 6.5 and even-money. A few other value plays appear to be the Panthers OVER 9 at +110, the Jets OVER 8 at +130, the Raiders UNDER 5 at +130, and the Titans OVER 7 at +130.
Please continue to post your own thoughts either in the comments section here or in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums.
There really hasn't been too much movement in the market as only three teams have different numbers than the ones posted several weeks ago in the division-by-division previews. Those three are the Falcons (predictably as Michael Vick's legal woes continue to escalate), who were at 7.5 wins earlier this summer, then adjusted to 7 after early betting on the Falcons' under, and are now 6.5 with the under favored at -120; the Eagles, who were at 9 but have been bet to 9.5; and the Lions, who were listed at 6 but are now at 6.5. If you read through my team previews, I appear to be correct in saying that the line on the Falcons was too high and the Eagles were too low, but I certainly would have thought the Lions' total would go down instead of up.
Any other movement has just been seen in the money line attached to the overs and unders, with most odds being adjusted somewhere between 10 and 30 cents, nothing too drastic. Overall, most of the moves have been in the direction of my recommendations, which means I either have a good handle on the marketplace, or I've got some followers.
The movement I'm most proud of is on the Rams, who have an over/under of 7.5 wins. The line on the over was even-money when I first gave out the play on the Leroy's Sports Hour radio show back on July 13. I didn't bet it until it had already gone to -110 when quarterback Marc Bulger agreed to contract terms (I didn't want to get stuck in case he did hold out), but the over continued to get bet by someone else and is now at -140 at the Hilton.
Of course, even being on the "right side" doesn't mean it will be a winner, but I like my position.
With the numbers not moving much, there's not many changes in my recommendations at this time, though since I liked the Lions at UNDER 6, I really like them at UNDER 6.5 and even-money. A few other value plays appear to be the Panthers OVER 9 at +110, the Jets OVER 8 at +130, the Raiders UNDER 5 at +130, and the Titans OVER 7 at +130.
Please continue to post your own thoughts either in the comments section here or in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums.
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