Shirreffs duo has shot in Pacific Classic
Normally,
when making a play on a major stakes race, I tend to focus on one horse
I feel will outrun his/her odds. I don't have such a horse in Sunday's
Pacific Classic at Del Mar, but I'll offer my thoughts on how we might
hit a nice payoff.
I think trainer John Shirreffs is the key to the race...I like both his horses, No. 11 A.P. Xcellent (a front-runner, and the only reason he's not my clear-cut choice is that this new polytrack at Del Mar hasn't favored speed) and No. 9 Tiago (a big closer, who could benefit from a fast pace set by his stablemate, and who had a nice comeback race in the Swaps).
Lava Man is the best horse, but as I said above, the new track is different from the one he won this race on last year, so I'll definitely try to beat him. If he's much the best and wins anyway, more power to him.
But I love this situation where you have a heavy favorite, Lava Man is 5-2 on the morning line and A.P. Excellent is 8-1, even though the two met in the Hollywood Gold Cup and Lava Man won by a nose. In a rematch with this much of an odds disparity, I will alway take the longshot to turn the tables. I can throw out A.P. Xcellent's last race as it was on the turf (he's 0-for-4 lifetime on grass), plus I like when I look back at his PPs and see that everytime in his career that he has tried turf, he won his next race when switching back to dirt (or more specifically a synthentic racing surface).
Even though this isn't a stellar field, there are any number of long shots that wouldn't shock me, though I wouldn't take less than 15-1 on any of them, including No. 4 Awesome Gem, No. 7 Salty Humor (worth a flier at his morning-line odds of 30-1 as he'll be running late), and No. 13 Hello Sunday.
Obviously, I think this is a wide-open race with a great possibility of producing big payoffs. Sorry I can't be more specific but I'll have a better idea of how I'm playing it when I see the odds closer to post.
Good luck everyone, especially those playing the Del Mar Pick 6.
I think trainer John Shirreffs is the key to the race...I like both his horses, No. 11 A.P. Xcellent (a front-runner, and the only reason he's not my clear-cut choice is that this new polytrack at Del Mar hasn't favored speed) and No. 9 Tiago (a big closer, who could benefit from a fast pace set by his stablemate, and who had a nice comeback race in the Swaps).
Lava Man is the best horse, but as I said above, the new track is different from the one he won this race on last year, so I'll definitely try to beat him. If he's much the best and wins anyway, more power to him.
But I love this situation where you have a heavy favorite, Lava Man is 5-2 on the morning line and A.P. Excellent is 8-1, even though the two met in the Hollywood Gold Cup and Lava Man won by a nose. In a rematch with this much of an odds disparity, I will alway take the longshot to turn the tables. I can throw out A.P. Xcellent's last race as it was on the turf (he's 0-for-4 lifetime on grass), plus I like when I look back at his PPs and see that everytime in his career that he has tried turf, he won his next race when switching back to dirt (or more specifically a synthentic racing surface).
Even though this isn't a stellar field, there are any number of long shots that wouldn't shock me, though I wouldn't take less than 15-1 on any of them, including No. 4 Awesome Gem, No. 7 Salty Humor (worth a flier at his morning-line odds of 30-1 as he'll be running late), and No. 13 Hello Sunday.
Obviously, I think this is a wide-open race with a great possibility of producing big payoffs. Sorry I can't be more specific but I'll have a better idea of how I'm playing it when I see the odds closer to post.
Good luck everyone, especially those playing the Del Mar Pick 6.
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