NFL preseason Week 3; college Week 1 totals
I've been meaning to post more picks (and it'll certainly pick up as the football season gets started), and since I gave out a pick in Saturday's Las Vegas Review-Journal, I figured I better post it on my own site, too.
The play I went with is Lions-Colts UNDER 40.5 points in Saturday night's preseason game (7 p.m. EDT/4 p.m. Vegas).
As most any football fan has heard for years, the third week of the preseason is known as the "dress rehearsal" as starters play the longest of any game in the preseason, often even into the third quarters. The oddsmakers obviously take this into account, and even though we've rarely see totals above 37 in the first two weekends, we see many above that and several even into the 40's. My thinking is that this is an overadjustment in many cases, especially since backups are still going to be playing the majority of the second halves of these games, so I don't see how they should be lined close to what we would see in the regular season. Of course, I wish I had posted this prior to Thursday and Friday night as the under has gone 3-1-1 in the first five games of this weekend. But I think the trend will continue.
I settled on the Lions-Colts UNDER 40.5 as my play of the day for several reasons. On the Detroit side, starting QB Jon Kitna has been having back spasms and will see limited action at the most, plus Dan Orlovsky has turf toe and is also doubtful, so that leaves J.T. O'Sullivan (who?) as the healthiest signal-caller against an Indy defense that is trying to get on track. The Indy offense is certainly powerful, but we can expect them to go through the motions with nothing to prove, plus the Colts might be more inclined to work on the running game. As long as there's not a couple of defensive TDs or easy scores set up by turnovers, this should come comfortably under the total.
College football totals
I should repeat here what I wrote about college football totals in Saturday's Daily Racing Form:
"There are a couple of rule changes this year that should have scoring on the increase. Last year, the NCAA wanted to speed up games and started the clock after a change of possession (including after kickoffs) once the referee made the ball ready for play. That was deemed too extreme as scoring and the number of plays per game dropped. So that rule was rescinded. In addition, kickoffs have been moved back five yards to the 30, which will lead to more returns and better field position. This has a lot of people talking about betting the overs. Of course, the oddsmakers know all this too, and the totals will be adjusted. That being said, when totals are first posted, there will be a lot of people making knee-jerk bets on the over, so the numbers will probably still be bet higher. If you can get down at the opening numbers, there should be some opportunities to hit some middles by betting back the unders at game time."
Just to be clear. I'm not predicting that the overs are the better bet -- with the totals shaded higher, it might very well be the case that unders will come out ahead -- but that will be the way the public will lean, and we might be able to position ourselves to take a shot at hitting some middles. I believe this will especially be true in games with offenses that the public loves to back (USC, Louisville, etc.) Now, I should note I normally don't recommend trying to hit middles with totals because you can only have it land in the middle once and then another score will put it off the number (as opposed to a point spread, where a game can land on a middle of, say, a seven-point margin and a team score to go up by 10 or 14, but the other team can match the score and get it back on the number). But I think there is still an opportunity here. And even if the numbers don't run too much, I don't we'll get hurt too much overall if we have to stick to our original bets. As of this writing (early Saturday morning), there were very few totals available on next weekend's opening college games, but we can expect to start seeing some on Sunday and especially Monday. The key will be getting down on the overs before they move.
I'll try to post recommended plays as soon as I see totals being posted around town. The fastest way to get these is to click on the Subscribe button so you get these posts sent directly to your e-mail inbox.
The play I went with is Lions-Colts UNDER 40.5 points in Saturday night's preseason game (7 p.m. EDT/4 p.m. Vegas).
As most any football fan has heard for years, the third week of the preseason is known as the "dress rehearsal" as starters play the longest of any game in the preseason, often even into the third quarters. The oddsmakers obviously take this into account, and even though we've rarely see totals above 37 in the first two weekends, we see many above that and several even into the 40's. My thinking is that this is an overadjustment in many cases, especially since backups are still going to be playing the majority of the second halves of these games, so I don't see how they should be lined close to what we would see in the regular season. Of course, I wish I had posted this prior to Thursday and Friday night as the under has gone 3-1-1 in the first five games of this weekend. But I think the trend will continue.
I settled on the Lions-Colts UNDER 40.5 as my play of the day for several reasons. On the Detroit side, starting QB Jon Kitna has been having back spasms and will see limited action at the most, plus Dan Orlovsky has turf toe and is also doubtful, so that leaves J.T. O'Sullivan (who?) as the healthiest signal-caller against an Indy defense that is trying to get on track. The Indy offense is certainly powerful, but we can expect them to go through the motions with nothing to prove, plus the Colts might be more inclined to work on the running game. As long as there's not a couple of defensive TDs or easy scores set up by turnovers, this should come comfortably under the total.
College football totals
I should repeat here what I wrote about college football totals in Saturday's Daily Racing Form:
"There are a couple of rule changes this year that should have scoring on the increase. Last year, the NCAA wanted to speed up games and started the clock after a change of possession (including after kickoffs) once the referee made the ball ready for play. That was deemed too extreme as scoring and the number of plays per game dropped. So that rule was rescinded. In addition, kickoffs have been moved back five yards to the 30, which will lead to more returns and better field position. This has a lot of people talking about betting the overs. Of course, the oddsmakers know all this too, and the totals will be adjusted. That being said, when totals are first posted, there will be a lot of people making knee-jerk bets on the over, so the numbers will probably still be bet higher. If you can get down at the opening numbers, there should be some opportunities to hit some middles by betting back the unders at game time."
Just to be clear. I'm not predicting that the overs are the better bet -- with the totals shaded higher, it might very well be the case that unders will come out ahead -- but that will be the way the public will lean, and we might be able to position ourselves to take a shot at hitting some middles. I believe this will especially be true in games with offenses that the public loves to back (USC, Louisville, etc.) Now, I should note I normally don't recommend trying to hit middles with totals because you can only have it land in the middle once and then another score will put it off the number (as opposed to a point spread, where a game can land on a middle of, say, a seven-point margin and a team score to go up by 10 or 14, but the other team can match the score and get it back on the number). But I think there is still an opportunity here. And even if the numbers don't run too much, I don't we'll get hurt too much overall if we have to stick to our original bets. As of this writing (early Saturday morning), there were very few totals available on next weekend's opening college games, but we can expect to start seeing some on Sunday and especially Monday. The key will be getting down on the overs before they move.
I'll try to post recommended plays as soon as I see totals being posted around town. The fastest way to get these is to click on the Subscribe button so you get these posts sent directly to your e-mail inbox.
always look forward to your articles in the form. looking for value in sports and at the racetrack is the challenge that keeps me playing. keep up the insightful handicapping.
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please send me e-mail alerts regarding your football game selections , Dave.
Thanks, Greg Gombash
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Greg:
The easiest way, as it's automated, is to enter your e-mail address in the "Subscribe" box on the tuleythetout.com page, where you'll see my plays this week and then get future plays as they're posted. Good luck.
Dave
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