NCAA: Games of Aug. 30-Sept. 1
It's been a long wait, and even though the NFL preseason has been fun to watch and at least given us a taste of football, the colleges start playing for real on Thursday night with a full menu on Saturday. I've found a few plays that will hopefully get the season kicked off the right way.
Before getting to the picks, I just want to mention a few things. Most people who know my work from the Daily Racing Form know that I'm a journalist first and a handicapper second. The moniker "Tuley the Tout" is one I've used for years in posting forums and as an alias in contests, but it's mostly made in jest as I don't sell my picks. They're free (though some may joke you get what you pay for
but what I think I have in common with real touts is that I have hot streaks where a lot of people think I'm great and cold streaks where people question how I got my job in the first place. I don't recommend that anyone follow anyone else blindly, but instead to do your own handicapping and then see if people you respect agree with your opinions or if they go the other way. In the end, it's your money and you should only go with plays with which you feel comfortable.
That being said, I do hope to help find some winners and I'm always open to hear dissenting opinions. I'm going to keep it light on opening weekend and go to school on the college teams by watching a lot of games. Other plays I considered before deciding on the three plays below: Boston College -6.5 vs. Wake Forest, Arizona +5 vs. BYU, Colorado -2.5 vs. Colorado St., California -5.5 vs. Tennessee, and Clemson +3 vs. Florida St. (Monday):
Thursday, Aug. 30
Utah (+7) at Oregon St.
This line has been 6.5 at most outlets, but several 7's have popped up and it's definitely a play at that number. Oregon St. has stud running back Yvenson Bernard, but the rest of the offense is in disarray as there's no true No. 1 quarterback between Sean Canfield and Ryan Gunderson -- and they might platoon which is rarely a good thing -- and their best receiver and punt returner, Sammie Stroughter, has reportedly been battling depression and might not play. That situation has to have a negative effect on the team, too. Meanwhile, Utah is loaded on offense as quarterback Brian Johnson, who missed last year with a knee injury, is back and has the top six receivers back from last year's team. They should be airing it out early and often, and Johnson is also a threat to tuck the ball away and run. The edge on defense goes to OSU talent-wise, but Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a former defensive coordinator and should have his troops ready. UTAH FOR 1 UNIT.
Saturday, Sept. 1
Virginia at Wyoming (+4)
With an ACC playing a team from the Mountain West, you'd expect a higher spread, so the fact Virginia is just a 4-point favorite tells us that the oddsmakers consider Wyoming a live home underdog. And with good reason. Last year, Wyoming went to Virginia and lost 13-12 in overtime, and now get the Cowboys get the Cavs on their home turf, where the Cowboys have covered their five home games vs. non-conference opponents. Virginia quarterback Jameel Sewell wasn't impressive last year and he's without his favorite receiver Kevin Ogletree (knee injury) while Wyoming returns Karsten Sween and his favorite receiver. Both teams should field solid defensive units, but the edge goes to the home dog with the better offense. WYOMING FOR 1 UNIT.
Purdue at Toledo (+6.5)
I wish this line would go to 7, but I'll take the +6.5. This game is line just about right based on the talent of the two teams, but I'm going with Toledo what I'll call my team-motivated-by-scandal theory. Unlike the Oregon St. situation where a team is distracted by a missing player, this is a case of a team having something to prove. Think back to the Atlanta Falcons this past Monday night after Michael Vick pled guilty to the dogfighting charges against him. All of the talk around the team was about Vick's situation and it was certainly a distraction, but the team came out on national TV and beat the Bengals. Toledo has had a cloud hanging over this team since Scooter McDougle was arrested on conspiracy charges and providing point-spread information to a gambler. The charges were later dropped, but prosecutors have said the investigation is ongoing and charges could be refiled. Now, the rest of the Rockets certainly have something to prove and they should play inspired in the home opener vs. a Big 10 opponent. TOLEDO FOR 1 UNIT.
Follow-up on Over/Unders
In another Tuley the Tout entry, I recommended playing overs in the opening weekend because of the assumption that as more people hear about the rule changes in college football this year (not starting the clock after a change of possession, moving kickoffs back 5 yards, etc.) they're going to be betting the overs and if you get the lowest number available, there could some opportunities to hit some middles. Well, as of this writing (late Wednesday), the totals haven't been running that much since being posted earlier in the week in Vegas, but keep in mind that the vast majority of visitors coming in for the Labor Day Weekend won't be arriving until Friday and that's when we should see a lot more line movement leading up to the Saturday games. Totals that I expect to keep climbing between now and Saturday include: Virginia-Wyoming (opened at 41), Mississippi-Memphis (49), Iowa-Northern Illinois (45), Oklahoma St.-Georgia (54.5), Tennessee-California (53.5) and New Mexico-UTEP (51.5).
Before getting to the picks, I just want to mention a few things. Most people who know my work from the Daily Racing Form know that I'm a journalist first and a handicapper second. The moniker "Tuley the Tout" is one I've used for years in posting forums and as an alias in contests, but it's mostly made in jest as I don't sell my picks. They're free (though some may joke you get what you pay for
but what I think I have in common with real touts is that I have hot streaks where a lot of people think I'm great and cold streaks where people question how I got my job in the first place. I don't recommend that anyone follow anyone else blindly, but instead to do your own handicapping and then see if people you respect agree with your opinions or if they go the other way. In the end, it's your money and you should only go with plays with which you feel comfortable.That being said, I do hope to help find some winners and I'm always open to hear dissenting opinions. I'm going to keep it light on opening weekend and go to school on the college teams by watching a lot of games. Other plays I considered before deciding on the three plays below: Boston College -6.5 vs. Wake Forest, Arizona +5 vs. BYU, Colorado -2.5 vs. Colorado St., California -5.5 vs. Tennessee, and Clemson +3 vs. Florida St. (Monday):
Thursday, Aug. 30
Utah (+7) at Oregon St.
This line has been 6.5 at most outlets, but several 7's have popped up and it's definitely a play at that number. Oregon St. has stud running back Yvenson Bernard, but the rest of the offense is in disarray as there's no true No. 1 quarterback between Sean Canfield and Ryan Gunderson -- and they might platoon which is rarely a good thing -- and their best receiver and punt returner, Sammie Stroughter, has reportedly been battling depression and might not play. That situation has to have a negative effect on the team, too. Meanwhile, Utah is loaded on offense as quarterback Brian Johnson, who missed last year with a knee injury, is back and has the top six receivers back from last year's team. They should be airing it out early and often, and Johnson is also a threat to tuck the ball away and run. The edge on defense goes to OSU talent-wise, but Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a former defensive coordinator and should have his troops ready. UTAH FOR 1 UNIT.
Saturday, Sept. 1
Virginia at Wyoming (+4)
With an ACC playing a team from the Mountain West, you'd expect a higher spread, so the fact Virginia is just a 4-point favorite tells us that the oddsmakers consider Wyoming a live home underdog. And with good reason. Last year, Wyoming went to Virginia and lost 13-12 in overtime, and now get the Cowboys get the Cavs on their home turf, where the Cowboys have covered their five home games vs. non-conference opponents. Virginia quarterback Jameel Sewell wasn't impressive last year and he's without his favorite receiver Kevin Ogletree (knee injury) while Wyoming returns Karsten Sween and his favorite receiver. Both teams should field solid defensive units, but the edge goes to the home dog with the better offense. WYOMING FOR 1 UNIT.
Purdue at Toledo (+6.5)
I wish this line would go to 7, but I'll take the +6.5. This game is line just about right based on the talent of the two teams, but I'm going with Toledo what I'll call my team-motivated-by-scandal theory. Unlike the Oregon St. situation where a team is distracted by a missing player, this is a case of a team having something to prove. Think back to the Atlanta Falcons this past Monday night after Michael Vick pled guilty to the dogfighting charges against him. All of the talk around the team was about Vick's situation and it was certainly a distraction, but the team came out on national TV and beat the Bengals. Toledo has had a cloud hanging over this team since Scooter McDougle was arrested on conspiracy charges and providing point-spread information to a gambler. The charges were later dropped, but prosecutors have said the investigation is ongoing and charges could be refiled. Now, the rest of the Rockets certainly have something to prove and they should play inspired in the home opener vs. a Big 10 opponent. TOLEDO FOR 1 UNIT.
Follow-up on Over/Unders
In another Tuley the Tout entry, I recommended playing overs in the opening weekend because of the assumption that as more people hear about the rule changes in college football this year (not starting the clock after a change of possession, moving kickoffs back 5 yards, etc.) they're going to be betting the overs and if you get the lowest number available, there could some opportunities to hit some middles. Well, as of this writing (late Wednesday), the totals haven't been running that much since being posted earlier in the week in Vegas, but keep in mind that the vast majority of visitors coming in for the Labor Day Weekend won't be arriving until Friday and that's when we should see a lot more line movement leading up to the Saturday games. Totals that I expect to keep climbing between now and Saturday include: Virginia-Wyoming (opened at 41), Mississippi-Memphis (49), Iowa-Northern Illinois (45), Oklahoma St.-Georgia (54.5), Tennessee-California (53.5) and New Mexico-UTEP (51.5).
first weekend, let us have fun. being in the midwest Georgia Tech +2.5 should be a good choice. no offense ND
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great to follow your dog picks again this year. your analysis of college and nfl is insightful and enjoyable
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week two,kentucky wildcats to down kent state much more than 13, have fun
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