Sept. 22-24: NCAA Week 4; NFL Week 3
Last week in the colleges, my plays went 4-3 against the spread for a net profit of 0.7 units when laying 1.1 units to win 1. For the first time this season, my results didn't fare better if making all the same plays on the money line. Only two of my plays won outright with Southern Miss beating East Carolina 28-21 as a -115 favorite (netting a 1-unit profit) and Boston College beating Georgia Tech 24-10 as a +220 underdog. That +3.2 units didn't make up for the four other losers. Note: the Louisiana Tech-California game didn't have a money line available in Las Vegas, so that one was discarded. For the season, my college picks are 8-9 against the spread for a net loss of 1.9 units; on the money line, the same plays (minus the LaTech-Cal game) are 5-11 on the money line but showing just a net loss of 1.4 units.
In the NFL, I went 4-1 as underdogs were barking all day Sunday as well as Monday night in going 12-3-1 against the spread. My point-spread winners were the Titans, Packers, Falcons and Jets with the Dolphins being the only loser for a net profit of 2.9 units. But again the money-line results didn't fare as well, with the Packers being the only team to win outright at a paltry price of +110, so the ML plays would have shown a net loss of 2.9 units. For the year, my NFL point-spread plays are 6-4 for a net profit of 1.6 units while the same money-line plays are 3-7 for a net loss of 2 units. Before declaring the experiment a failure, we'll continue to monitor results both ways the rest of the season.
Here are this Saturday's NCAA plays with the current lines as of Thursday night (with the money line from the Las Vegas Hilton in parentheses):
INDIANA +3 vs. Illinois (+110)
Air Force +11 at BYU (+375)
Arizona +14.5 at CALIFORNIA (+500)
Iowa St. -4 at TOLEDO (-165)
New Mexico St. +16 at AUBURN (+675)
South Carolina +18 at LSU (+1000)
Iowa +7 at WISCONSIN (+250)
In the NFL, I'm going with five underdogs in my ViewFromVegas.com entry in the Hilton SuperContest, which is 6-4 through two weeks and tied for 50th place out of this year's 342 contestant.All are road underdogs as I just couldn't pull the trigger with any of the three home dogs this week (Texan vs. Colts, Packers vs. Chargers and Falcons vs. Panthers):
Lions +6.5 at EAGLES (+235)
49ers +9 at STEELERS (+425)
Cardinals +8 at RAVENS (+330)
Rams +4 at BUCCANEERS (+180)
Titans +4.5 at SAINTS (+185)
In the NFL, I went 4-1 as underdogs were barking all day Sunday as well as Monday night in going 12-3-1 against the spread. My point-spread winners were the Titans, Packers, Falcons and Jets with the Dolphins being the only loser for a net profit of 2.9 units. But again the money-line results didn't fare as well, with the Packers being the only team to win outright at a paltry price of +110, so the ML plays would have shown a net loss of 2.9 units. For the year, my NFL point-spread plays are 6-4 for a net profit of 1.6 units while the same money-line plays are 3-7 for a net loss of 2 units. Before declaring the experiment a failure, we'll continue to monitor results both ways the rest of the season.
Here are this Saturday's NCAA plays with the current lines as of Thursday night (with the money line from the Las Vegas Hilton in parentheses):
INDIANA +3 vs. Illinois (+110)
Air Force +11 at BYU (+375)
Arizona +14.5 at CALIFORNIA (+500)
Iowa St. -4 at TOLEDO (-165)
New Mexico St. +16 at AUBURN (+675)
South Carolina +18 at LSU (+1000)
Iowa +7 at WISCONSIN (+250)
In the NFL, I'm going with five underdogs in my ViewFromVegas.com entry in the Hilton SuperContest, which is 6-4 through two weeks and tied for 50th place out of this year's 342 contestant.All are road underdogs as I just couldn't pull the trigger with any of the three home dogs this week (Texan vs. Colts, Packers vs. Chargers and Falcons vs. Panthers):
Lions +6.5 at EAGLES (+235)
49ers +9 at STEELERS (+425)
Cardinals +8 at RAVENS (+330)
Rams +4 at BUCCANEERS (+180)
Titans +4.5 at SAINTS (+185)
Took a terrible beating on Tuleys picks for College Saaturday, Sept. 22. Went 1-6. Ouuch! Sad note is I liked most of the winners and wewnt with his picks which were losers, most by wide margins.
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Greg. It was brutal, but let the record show I was 2-5 instead of 1-6 as I covered with South Carolina vs. LSU and Iowa vs. Wisconsin, though believe me that's nothing to brag about either.
I'm glad to hear at least that you liked the sides as well and weren't just following blindly. And in a lot of the case I would make the same bet again. I thought Iowa St. was going to hang out and cover the number, leading 35-24. Toledo scored a TD but missed the 2-point conversion (which I knew they were going to try in hopes of getting within 3), so ISU was still covering until the Cyclones' punt team gave Toledo an easy touchdown to lose the game. And the New Mexico St. was losing just 21-20 to Auburn at halftime and looking like it would stick around the whole game as 16.5-point underdogs, and got shut out and blown out the second half.
Even so, the rest of the losers weren't close so a poor overall job of handicapping. I'll certainly try better this week.
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Big Ten,week two. First week I passed the test. Penn St.-3,papa Joe will not lose two in a row,Ohio St-22, looks to be very strong, Michigan St.+7, Wisconsin still sleeping, Iowa is hurt has great defense and playing weak Indiana, Michigan-16 and half, hard to play Northwestern. Virginia Tech-17 to fund travel to Henderson[South Point] next weekend. Have fun and enjoy.
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