I usually fade division clinchers, but . . .
On Sunday, the Angels and Indians clinched their respective divisions. In the past, I've loved to bet against these teams and it's been very profitable. The reasoning is that the team has accomplished a goal and usually doesn't have anything to play for. This is also a situation where a lot of teams will rest starters, plus there's a better-than-decent chance that a lot of the players were out celebrating and might not be 100 percent (and even the back-ups were probably celebrating just as much).
Now, this betting angle has become more well-known over the years and the oddsmakers are certainly aware of it and have adjusted accordingly. For instance, the Angels play the Rangers Monday night and even though the Rangers are 72-84 and starting a AAA pitcher named Armando Galarraga, oddsmakers have the Rangers as a -135 favorite. Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which supplies odds to 90 percent of the legal sports books in Nevada, has a note on their sendout saying "Clinched division - may rest starters."
I'm posting this blog to make you aware of this angle (the Indians don't play until Tuesday night in Seattle), but also to give a contrarian view. Like I said, I would tend to automatically bet against the Rangers in this spot, but I think the +120 or +125 price is warranted to go against this trend and take the Angels for the simple reason that right now they are 1/2 a game back of the Indians for home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs and tied with the Red Sox for the second seed, which would be key if they face them. They have ample incentive to keep playing hard.
As I'm writing this, I don't have any insider information about what the Angels players did last night (though they clinched at home in Anaheim, Calif., and had to travel to Texas for tonight's game, so I doubt they were able to go out on the town), but it's not like the Rangers are a great team and might be hard-pressed to beat the Angels' backups anyway.
I'll take my chances with the Angels +125.
Now, this betting angle has become more well-known over the years and the oddsmakers are certainly aware of it and have adjusted accordingly. For instance, the Angels play the Rangers Monday night and even though the Rangers are 72-84 and starting a AAA pitcher named Armando Galarraga, oddsmakers have the Rangers as a -135 favorite. Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which supplies odds to 90 percent of the legal sports books in Nevada, has a note on their sendout saying "Clinched division - may rest starters."
I'm posting this blog to make you aware of this angle (the Indians don't play until Tuesday night in Seattle), but also to give a contrarian view. Like I said, I would tend to automatically bet against the Rangers in this spot, but I think the +120 or +125 price is warranted to go against this trend and take the Angels for the simple reason that right now they are 1/2 a game back of the Indians for home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs and tied with the Red Sox for the second seed, which would be key if they face them. They have ample incentive to keep playing hard.
As I'm writing this, I don't have any insider information about what the Angels players did last night (though they clinched at home in Anaheim, Calif., and had to travel to Texas for tonight's game, so I doubt they were able to go out on the town), but it's not like the Rangers are a great team and might be hard-pressed to beat the Angels' backups anyway.
I'll take my chances with the Angels +125.
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