Sept. 29-Oct. 1: NCAA Week 5; NFL Week 4
Last week was pretty rough for my documented bankroll plays. I went 2-5 against the spread in the colleges for a net loss of 3.5 units (ouch!) based on risking 1.1 units to win 1. I certainly felt that Iowa St. was going to hold on and cover vs. Toledo being up 11 in the final minutes, but a botched punt was recovered by Toledo for the winning score. I also thought New Mexico St., trailing Auburn only 21-20 at halftime as a 16.5-point underdog would hang in there, but Auburn blew them out in the second half. Those results dropped the season record to 10-14 for a net loss of 5.4 units. To make matters worse, none of my seven plays won outright, so the ledger on the money-line analysis had a net loss of 8.4 units if played that way.
The NFL action on Sunday was nearly as gruesome as I went 1-3 with the Lions getting blown out by the Eagles, the Rams getting blown out by the Rams and the 49ers staying within striking distance of the Steelers but also failing to cover. The lone Sunday win was the Cardinals covering late vs. the Ravens, so I was lucky to even get to 1-3. At least the Titans came through on Monday night to improve the record to 2-3 and back over .500 on the year at 8-7 for a net profit of 0.3 units. The money-line way also lost ground as the Titans were the only winner at +200, so with the four losses the ML ledger, I lost 2 units and now stand -4 units on the season.
But, there's still plenty of football to be played and hopefully with more past performances and statistics to look at, we can stand to turn things around in the colleges and improve on a decent start in the pros (in which I typically start slow, as was the case last year when I was 3-11-1 after three weeks, so 8-7 feels really good).
Below are my plays in the Leroy's College Challenge and in the Hilton SuperContest NFL contest (money line in parentheses):
Indiana +10.5 vs. Iowa (+340)...11.5 now available
Alabama +2.5 vs. Florida St. (+110)...wrong team favored IMHO
Michigan St. +7.5 vs. Wisconsin (+250)...Wisky not this much better, could come down to a field goal
Idaho +25.5 vs. Hawaii (no ML in Vegas yet)...home field, Idaho good at home except first half vs. NIU
Colorado St. +10.5 vs. TCU (+340) TCU not as good as expected, CSU has faced tougher
Clemson -2.5 vs. Georgia Tech (-150) now at -3, but Clemson better overall team
Browns +4 vs. Ravens (+190)...4.5 is better, Browns got over first-week loss, Ravens winning close games
Rams +13 vs. Cowboys (+675)...overadjusted price, even with Steven Jackson out
Panthers -3 vs. Buccaneers (-155)....only have to lay even-money on -3 at most books...value, even with David Carr
Cardinals +5.5 vs. Steelers (+240) Cards know how to cover, coach passed over for Steelers' head job
Bengals +7.5 vs. Patriots (+310) Cincy at home on MNF should keep it close, if defense feeds off crowd
The NFL action on Sunday was nearly as gruesome as I went 1-3 with the Lions getting blown out by the Eagles, the Rams getting blown out by the Rams and the 49ers staying within striking distance of the Steelers but also failing to cover. The lone Sunday win was the Cardinals covering late vs. the Ravens, so I was lucky to even get to 1-3. At least the Titans came through on Monday night to improve the record to 2-3 and back over .500 on the year at 8-7 for a net profit of 0.3 units. The money-line way also lost ground as the Titans were the only winner at +200, so with the four losses the ML ledger, I lost 2 units and now stand -4 units on the season.
But, there's still plenty of football to be played and hopefully with more past performances and statistics to look at, we can stand to turn things around in the colleges and improve on a decent start in the pros (in which I typically start slow, as was the case last year when I was 3-11-1 after three weeks, so 8-7 feels really good).
Below are my plays in the Leroy's College Challenge and in the Hilton SuperContest NFL contest (money line in parentheses):
Indiana +10.5 vs. Iowa (+340)...11.5 now available
Alabama +2.5 vs. Florida St. (+110)...wrong team favored IMHO
Michigan St. +7.5 vs. Wisconsin (+250)...Wisky not this much better, could come down to a field goal
Idaho +25.5 vs. Hawaii (no ML in Vegas yet)...home field, Idaho good at home except first half vs. NIU
Colorado St. +10.5 vs. TCU (+340) TCU not as good as expected, CSU has faced tougher
Clemson -2.5 vs. Georgia Tech (-150) now at -3, but Clemson better overall team
Browns +4 vs. Ravens (+190)...4.5 is better, Browns got over first-week loss, Ravens winning close games
Rams +13 vs. Cowboys (+675)...overadjusted price, even with Steven Jackson out
Panthers -3 vs. Buccaneers (-155)....only have to lay even-money on -3 at most books...value, even with David Carr
Cardinals +5.5 vs. Steelers (+240) Cards know how to cover, coach passed over for Steelers' head job
Bengals +7.5 vs. Patriots (+310) Cincy at home on MNF should keep it close, if defense feeds off crowd
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