Nov. 2-4: NBA, NCAA Week 10, NFL Week 9
Before getting to the football card for this weekend, I want to make an NBA play for Friday night. I don't' get too involved with basketball, pros or college, too much until after football season is over. However, I follow what's going on as much as I can (and it gets easier with the Breeders' Cup completed) and certainly like to step to the windows when I think there's money to be made.
Friday night is one of those cases (I hope) as the Boston Celtics tip off their season. We've heard all about the off-season acquisitions of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and how the Celtics can now compete in the East. I agree that they're definitely improved, but I can't help but think that they're going to be overvalued by oddsmakers and bettors. In their opener, they're favored by 7 over the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are a middle-of-the-pack team, but they have played a regular-season game already (a loss at Indiana on Wednesday in which Gilbert Arena hit a 3-pointer to force overtime, where the Wizards lost 119-110). Until the Celtics' rebuilt team shows it can play together (and if it'll play defense), I'm going to fade them early this season. Give me the Wizards +7 on Friday night.
OK, back to football. I've been remiss in not keeping my record up to date the past few weeks. Cynics would say I was trying to hide my pitiful records, but I've always been open and forthright about my records win or lose. I'd like to blame the lack of documentation on some computer/website problems as well as burning the candle at both ends with the Breeders' Cup, but that's really no excuse. If I have time to post plays; I should have time to do the record-keeping. So here's the ugly numbers.
In the colleges, I went 3-4 last week. Sadly, it was one of my better weeks lately as UConn and Colorado pulled outright upsets. Still, the NCAA bankroll is 25-34 (barely over 40 percent) for a net loss of 12.4 units based on risking 1.1 units to win 1. I also vowed this season to keep track of how my plays do on the money line to win straight-up, and that's been worse as I'm down 14.4 units. The next four weeks are a mini-contest in the Leroy's College Challenge (meaning every one starts over at 0-0 to try and have the best record the rest of the way), and I'm hoping to erase the deficit.
Nebraska +20.5 vs. Kansas (+850)...Huskers showed life vs. Texas; oddsmakers' catching up to Kansas
Purdue +8 vs. Penn St (+250)...Boilermakers can score and stay close throughout
Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Oregon (+240)...Undefeated Sun Devils still not getting enough respect
Texas A&M +21 vs. Oklahoma (NL)...A&M has little or no chance to win, but can stay within three TDs
Stanford +3 vs. Washington (+130)...Huskies have lost six straight and still favored on road?
Florida St. +7 vs. Boston College (+210)...BC struggled to get past VaTech and will do the same vs. FSU
Oregon St. +16 vs. USC (+475)...this year's Trojans shouldn't be asked to cover this much wood
The NFL bankroll is making a bit of a comeback with back-to-back 3-2 weeks. In addition, all three underdogs winners last week (Bills, Jaguars, Packers) pulled outright upsets. For the year, I'm 19-20-1 for a net loss of 3 units. Money-line plays are -4.8 units.
Packers +2.5 vs. Chiefs (+120)...Pack playing well all-around and showed they can win on road vs. AFC team
Cardinals +3.5 vs. Buccaneers (+175)...Bucs coming back to Earth, Cards off bye, more than FG hard to pass up
Broncos +3 vs. Lions (+135)...Lions looking good, but Broncos ready to get offense going
Seahawks +1 vs. Browns (+100)...love the Browns...when they're a Dawg...take the better overall team here
Colts +5.5 vs. Patriots (+220)...defending champs, undefeated this year, playing at home? I'll take the value
Friday night is one of those cases (I hope) as the Boston Celtics tip off their season. We've heard all about the off-season acquisitions of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen and how the Celtics can now compete in the East. I agree that they're definitely improved, but I can't help but think that they're going to be overvalued by oddsmakers and bettors. In their opener, they're favored by 7 over the Washington Wizards. The Wizards are a middle-of-the-pack team, but they have played a regular-season game already (a loss at Indiana on Wednesday in which Gilbert Arena hit a 3-pointer to force overtime, where the Wizards lost 119-110). Until the Celtics' rebuilt team shows it can play together (and if it'll play defense), I'm going to fade them early this season. Give me the Wizards +7 on Friday night.
OK, back to football. I've been remiss in not keeping my record up to date the past few weeks. Cynics would say I was trying to hide my pitiful records, but I've always been open and forthright about my records win or lose. I'd like to blame the lack of documentation on some computer/website problems as well as burning the candle at both ends with the Breeders' Cup, but that's really no excuse. If I have time to post plays; I should have time to do the record-keeping. So here's the ugly numbers.
In the colleges, I went 3-4 last week. Sadly, it was one of my better weeks lately as UConn and Colorado pulled outright upsets. Still, the NCAA bankroll is 25-34 (barely over 40 percent) for a net loss of 12.4 units based on risking 1.1 units to win 1. I also vowed this season to keep track of how my plays do on the money line to win straight-up, and that's been worse as I'm down 14.4 units. The next four weeks are a mini-contest in the Leroy's College Challenge (meaning every one starts over at 0-0 to try and have the best record the rest of the way), and I'm hoping to erase the deficit.
Nebraska +20.5 vs. Kansas (+850)...Huskers showed life vs. Texas; oddsmakers' catching up to Kansas
Purdue +8 vs. Penn St (+250)...Boilermakers can score and stay close throughout
Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Oregon (+240)...Undefeated Sun Devils still not getting enough respect
Texas A&M +21 vs. Oklahoma (NL)...A&M has little or no chance to win, but can stay within three TDs
Stanford +3 vs. Washington (+130)...Huskies have lost six straight and still favored on road?
Florida St. +7 vs. Boston College (+210)...BC struggled to get past VaTech and will do the same vs. FSU
Oregon St. +16 vs. USC (+475)...this year's Trojans shouldn't be asked to cover this much wood
The NFL bankroll is making a bit of a comeback with back-to-back 3-2 weeks. In addition, all three underdogs winners last week (Bills, Jaguars, Packers) pulled outright upsets. For the year, I'm 19-20-1 for a net loss of 3 units. Money-line plays are -4.8 units.
Packers +2.5 vs. Chiefs (+120)...Pack playing well all-around and showed they can win on road vs. AFC team
Cardinals +3.5 vs. Buccaneers (+175)...Bucs coming back to Earth, Cards off bye, more than FG hard to pass up
Broncos +3 vs. Lions (+135)...Lions looking good, but Broncos ready to get offense going
Seahawks +1 vs. Browns (+100)...love the Browns...when they're a Dawg...take the better overall team here
Colts +5.5 vs. Patriots (+220)...defending champs, undefeated this year, playing at home? I'll take the value
Comments