Nov. 17-19: NCAA Week 12; NFL Week 1
Last week, I went 3-4 with my college football bankroll plays to improve (yes, I said improve, which is pretty sad) to 30-43 on the year for a net loss of 17.3 units. In the money-line experiment, Air Force (-160) and Maryland (+220) came through but I lost the other four MLs that were on the boards in Vegas for a net loss of 0.8 units to fall to an even worse -19.1 units.
But at least my NFL plays did much better as I was 5-0 with my point-spread plays and also tabbed the Bengals-Ravens under 44.5 points as my first total play of the season to finally get back over .500 at 27-24-1 against the spread for a net profit (yes, I said profit) of 0.6 units. With straight-up winners on the Jaguars (+180), Rams (+500), Cowboys (-110) and Chargers (+170), the money-line experiment also got back on the plus-side at +0.9 units on the season after being +8.5 units for the week (and would have been much higher if the Browns had held on vs. the Steelers).
Here are this week's seven college football plays (for those who haven't started fading my action in the college ranks), followed by five plays in the NFL (money lines in parentheses):
Texas Tech +8.5 vs. Oklahoma (+240)
Washington +6.5 vs. California (+220)
Mississippi +18.5 vs. LSU (+900)
Kentucky +7.5 Georgia (+250)
Kansas St. +7.5 vs. Missouri (+220)
Michigan +3.5 vs. Ohio St. (+160)
Maryland +7.5 Florida St. (+250)
Raiders +5 vs. Vikings (+210)
Cardinals +3 vs. Bengals (+150)
Bills +16 vs. Patriots (+1100)
Lions +3 vs. Giants (+125)
Titans +2 vs. Broncos (+115)
The NFL bankroll had been making a bit of a comeback with back-to-back 3-2 weeks, but went 2-3 last week to drop to 21-24-1 for a net loss of 4.3 units. It was especially frustrating as the Packers were the only team to win outright, while the Seahawks let their game slip away vs. the Browns as did the Colts vs. the Patriots, though at least Indy still covered. For the year, money-line plays would be -7.6 units.
Jaguars +4 vs. Titans (+180)...Titans great at dogs, not adept at covering spread as faves
Browns +10 vs. Steelers (+380)...I love that this line moved to 10 on Friday morning
Rams +11.5 vs. Saints (+500)...Saints on improve, but line still too high as Rams improving (a little)
Cowboys -1 vs. Giants (-110)...better team has me taking taste of rare chalk, plus Giants in unprecedented travel spot
Chargers +3.5 vs. Colts (+170)...SD usually matches up well with Indy, Indy hungover from Pats loss
I'm also going to go under 44 in the Bengals-Ravens game. This just seems too high for many reasons (I know the Cincy defense is bad, but Baltimore offense has been awful; Ravens' D knows Cincy personnel) but what really throws me is the other game in the same division, Browns-Steelers, has a total of 47.5. This game is only expected to have one field goal less, especially considering the Browns are 8-0 with the over this season? I think this number is way too high...I would put it at 40, so I'll make this my first official total play of the year.
But at least my NFL plays did much better as I was 5-0 with my point-spread plays and also tabbed the Bengals-Ravens under 44.5 points as my first total play of the season to finally get back over .500 at 27-24-1 against the spread for a net profit (yes, I said profit) of 0.6 units. With straight-up winners on the Jaguars (+180), Rams (+500), Cowboys (-110) and Chargers (+170), the money-line experiment also got back on the plus-side at +0.9 units on the season after being +8.5 units for the week (and would have been much higher if the Browns had held on vs. the Steelers).
Here are this week's seven college football plays (for those who haven't started fading my action in the college ranks), followed by five plays in the NFL (money lines in parentheses):
Texas Tech +8.5 vs. Oklahoma (+240)
Washington +6.5 vs. California (+220)
Mississippi +18.5 vs. LSU (+900)
Kentucky +7.5 Georgia (+250)
Kansas St. +7.5 vs. Missouri (+220)
Michigan +3.5 vs. Ohio St. (+160)
Maryland +7.5 Florida St. (+250)
Raiders +5 vs. Vikings (+210)
Cardinals +3 vs. Bengals (+150)
Bills +16 vs. Patriots (+1100)
Lions +3 vs. Giants (+125)
Titans +2 vs. Broncos (+115)
The NFL bankroll had been making a bit of a comeback with back-to-back 3-2 weeks, but went 2-3 last week to drop to 21-24-1 for a net loss of 4.3 units. It was especially frustrating as the Packers were the only team to win outright, while the Seahawks let their game slip away vs. the Browns as did the Colts vs. the Patriots, though at least Indy still covered. For the year, money-line plays would be -7.6 units.
Jaguars +4 vs. Titans (+180)...Titans great at dogs, not adept at covering spread as faves
Browns +10 vs. Steelers (+380)...I love that this line moved to 10 on Friday morning
Rams +11.5 vs. Saints (+500)...Saints on improve, but line still too high as Rams improving (a little)
Cowboys -1 vs. Giants (-110)...better team has me taking taste of rare chalk, plus Giants in unprecedented travel spot
Chargers +3.5 vs. Colts (+170)...SD usually matches up well with Indy, Indy hungover from Pats loss
I'm also going to go under 44 in the Bengals-Ravens game. This just seems too high for many reasons (I know the Cincy defense is bad, but Baltimore offense has been awful; Ravens' D knows Cincy personnel) but what really throws me is the other game in the same division, Browns-Steelers, has a total of 47.5. This game is only expected to have one field goal less, especially considering the Browns are 8-0 with the over this season? I think this number is way too high...I would put it at 40, so I'll make this my first official total play of the year.
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