Led by Pats, favorites rule Week 11
A week after favorites were just 7-7 straight-up (that's right, half of the NFL's games in Week 10 were outright upsets) and 5-8-1 against the spread, favorites dominated thoroughly on Sunday and Monday as they went 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS.
And no team was again more dominant than the Patriots, who beat the Bills 56-10 on Sunday night and making the 16.5-point spread look like a gimme as, except for a Buffalo TD to get the Bills within 14-7 in the first quarter, the game and the spread weren't in doubt after the Pats took a 28-7 lead just before halftime (and a lot of people would say it was over a lot earlier).
The Patriots will dominate the early part of this column as well. Prior to that game, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Pats as a 17-point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles this upcoming Sunday night. On Monday morning after the rout, the Hilton put up the line at 20 and it got bet up to 24 by mid-afternoon before coming back down to 23.5. Part of that is because Philly QB Donovan McNabb was hurt in Sunday's win over the Dolphins and might not play vs. the Pats (the oddsmaking firm Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent its sports book clients Pats -18 if McNabb starts and -23 if he doesn't), but it's clear from other sports books in town also having the line at -22 or -23 that bookmakers aren't worried about McNabb improving the Eagles' chances (in fact, just like in season's past, the backup led them to victory last week in his absence) or that it will affect the betting public's willingness to back New England at any number.
Here's some more numbers, LVSC has sent out Super Bowl lines involving the Patriots. They are 15-point favorites over the Cowboys with a total of 60. Those are close to the AFC/NFC lines that are seen around town (the Hilton has -15.5 and 57), reflecting the most likely matchup. The Pats are -17 vs. the Packers with a total of 56, -20 vs. the Giants with a total of 58, -21 vs. the Seahawks with a total of 57, and -22 vs. the field of all other NFC teams with a total of 56.
All of the above is due to not only the Patriots being undefeated at 10-0 but also being atop the NFL ATS Standings (chart at the bottom of this column) with a record of 9-1 against the spread. The Packers, who have favre exceeded expectations, are right behind them at 8-1-1 with the Browns at 8-2. The Cowboys' non-cover vs. the Redskins dropped them to 7-3 along with the Cardinals.
The Ravens looked like winners vs. the Browns last week until Phil Dawson played pinball with the upright and goal-post support. The Ravens lost 33-30 in overtime to not only lose the game but also the cover to drop to a league-worst 1-9 against the spread. The 49ers are in a freefall and are 2-8 ATS while the Broncos, Saints, Bears, Raiders and Rams are 3-7, though the Broncos and Rams have covered two in a row.
The Browns continue to be the best bet in the NFL at 10-0 with the over in their games. (Note: Browns/over parlays are also 8-2, as is the Patriots/over.). The total in the Browns-Texans game this week has been bet up to 51. The Pats, Cowboys and Broncos are 8-2 with the over with no other team hitting at 70 percent or better.
The Falcons went over last week but still have the best under record at 8-2, with the Titans, Panthers, 49ers, Rams and (surprisingly) Colts at 7-3. The Falcons and Colts meet on Thanksgiving night with a total of 41.
NFL league-wide betting trends
As stated above, favorites went 12-4 against the spread. Underdogs had been a better bet most of this season, but now the record stands dead-even at exactly Underdog 76, Favorites 76, Pushes 7 (note: the reason for the odd number of games is the Bills-Bengals game in Week 9 closed at pick-em so there was no favorite.
Home and road teams split 8-8 last week and road teams hold a slight 77-75-7 record against the spread (note: the Giants-Dolphins game in London didn't have a home team).
Overs went 10-6 last week and -- do you see a trend here of most of the trends evening out? -- the overs have the slightest of edges on the year at 80-79-1.
Though Week 6, home dogs had been hitting at a 60-percent clip at 18-12, but after last week's 1-5 mark, they're now below .500 at 25-27-1 (that's 7-15-1 the past five weeks). If you like home dogs to get back on track, this week's plays would be the Lions +3.5 vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving day, the Falcons +11.5 vs. the Colts on Thanksgiving night, Bengals +2 vs. the Titans, Rams +3 vs. Seahawks and Panthers +3 vs. the Saints.
Double-digit underdogs are only 7-10 ATS this season, but there's certainly going to be plenty of opportunities with a wide disparity between the haves and the have nots (or at least the common perception of such). This week's big dogs are the Jets +14.5 vs. the Cowboys and Falcons +11.5 on Thanksgiving, 49ers +10 vs. the Cardinals, Eagles +23 vs. the Patriots, and Dolphins +16 vs. the Steelers.
This next paragraph might soon be known as the NFC trend. I've written all season about how the AFC is perceived to be stronger and that people are betting those teams blindly in interconference play. Last week, the NFC went 3-1 both SU and ATS and is now 23-21 SU and 21-20-3 ATS. I'm still kicking myself that last week in this space I wrote "my contrarian senses are tingling to go the other way" when listing the AFC plays but I only heeded my own advice with the Cardinals vs. the Bengals.
This last paragraph won't help you this season but teams coming off their byes went 4-0 SU and ATS last week and were 18-11-1 this season (the Steelers and Broncos who met in Week 7 off their byes aren't included). Interestingly enough, teams prior to their bye also went 18-11-1 ATS (the Giants and Dolphins faced each other in London before both getting byes.
Other sorts of sports
With Oregon losing at Arizona last Thursday night, that paves the way for Kansas and LSU to meet in the BCS title game if they can run the table. Of course, there's no guarantee as Kansas plays Missouri this week while LSU faces Arkansas, and then each has a tough conference championship game to survive. As of Tuesday, here are the odds to win the BCS title game from the Las Vegas Hilton: LSU 5-4, the "field" (which is really Kansas since the Jayhawks weren't on the list before the season) at 5-1, Missouri at 5-1, Ohio St. and West Virginia at 6-1, and Arizona St. at 12-1 if it can beat USC on Thanksgiving night and then have four teams tumble ahead of them.
* Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his second straight Nextel Cup points championship on Sunday in the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He had a comfortable margin over teammate Jeff Gordon and kept him in his sights all race long to do enough to claim the title. Last winter before the Daytona 500 that kicks off the NASCAR season, Station Casinos had Johnson as the 5-1 co-favorite along with Tony Stewart. Lost in all the accolades for Johnson was the fact Matt Kenseth actually won Sunday's race at odds of 7-1.
* The next big fight here is set for Dec. 8 between undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr., who lives in Vegas, and similarly unbeaten Ricky Hatton of Britain. Mayweather is a -270 favorite. On Tuesday, Wladimir Klitschko and Sultan Ibragimov announced a heavyweight unification title fight (or at least two of the four belts) at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 23. No odds were posted as of early Tuesday.
And no team was again more dominant than the Patriots, who beat the Bills 56-10 on Sunday night and making the 16.5-point spread look like a gimme as, except for a Buffalo TD to get the Bills within 14-7 in the first quarter, the game and the spread weren't in doubt after the Pats took a 28-7 lead just before halftime (and a lot of people would say it was over a lot earlier).
The Patriots will dominate the early part of this column as well. Prior to that game, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Pats as a 17-point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles this upcoming Sunday night. On Monday morning after the rout, the Hilton put up the line at 20 and it got bet up to 24 by mid-afternoon before coming back down to 23.5. Part of that is because Philly QB Donovan McNabb was hurt in Sunday's win over the Dolphins and might not play vs. the Pats (the oddsmaking firm Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent its sports book clients Pats -18 if McNabb starts and -23 if he doesn't), but it's clear from other sports books in town also having the line at -22 or -23 that bookmakers aren't worried about McNabb improving the Eagles' chances (in fact, just like in season's past, the backup led them to victory last week in his absence) or that it will affect the betting public's willingness to back New England at any number.
Here's some more numbers, LVSC has sent out Super Bowl lines involving the Patriots. They are 15-point favorites over the Cowboys with a total of 60. Those are close to the AFC/NFC lines that are seen around town (the Hilton has -15.5 and 57), reflecting the most likely matchup. The Pats are -17 vs. the Packers with a total of 56, -20 vs. the Giants with a total of 58, -21 vs. the Seahawks with a total of 57, and -22 vs. the field of all other NFC teams with a total of 56.
All of the above is due to not only the Patriots being undefeated at 10-0 but also being atop the NFL ATS Standings (chart at the bottom of this column) with a record of 9-1 against the spread. The Packers, who have favre exceeded expectations, are right behind them at 8-1-1 with the Browns at 8-2. The Cowboys' non-cover vs. the Redskins dropped them to 7-3 along with the Cardinals.
The Ravens looked like winners vs. the Browns last week until Phil Dawson played pinball with the upright and goal-post support. The Ravens lost 33-30 in overtime to not only lose the game but also the cover to drop to a league-worst 1-9 against the spread. The 49ers are in a freefall and are 2-8 ATS while the Broncos, Saints, Bears, Raiders and Rams are 3-7, though the Broncos and Rams have covered two in a row.
The Browns continue to be the best bet in the NFL at 10-0 with the over in their games. (Note: Browns/over parlays are also 8-2, as is the Patriots/over.). The total in the Browns-Texans game this week has been bet up to 51. The Pats, Cowboys and Broncos are 8-2 with the over with no other team hitting at 70 percent or better.
The Falcons went over last week but still have the best under record at 8-2, with the Titans, Panthers, 49ers, Rams and (surprisingly) Colts at 7-3. The Falcons and Colts meet on Thanksgiving night with a total of 41.
NFL league-wide betting trends
As stated above, favorites went 12-4 against the spread. Underdogs had been a better bet most of this season, but now the record stands dead-even at exactly Underdog 76, Favorites 76, Pushes 7 (note: the reason for the odd number of games is the Bills-Bengals game in Week 9 closed at pick-em so there was no favorite.
Home and road teams split 8-8 last week and road teams hold a slight 77-75-7 record against the spread (note: the Giants-Dolphins game in London didn't have a home team).
Overs went 10-6 last week and -- do you see a trend here of most of the trends evening out? -- the overs have the slightest of edges on the year at 80-79-1.
Though Week 6, home dogs had been hitting at a 60-percent clip at 18-12, but after last week's 1-5 mark, they're now below .500 at 25-27-1 (that's 7-15-1 the past five weeks). If you like home dogs to get back on track, this week's plays would be the Lions +3.5 vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving day, the Falcons +11.5 vs. the Colts on Thanksgiving night, Bengals +2 vs. the Titans, Rams +3 vs. Seahawks and Panthers +3 vs. the Saints.
Double-digit underdogs are only 7-10 ATS this season, but there's certainly going to be plenty of opportunities with a wide disparity between the haves and the have nots (or at least the common perception of such). This week's big dogs are the Jets +14.5 vs. the Cowboys and Falcons +11.5 on Thanksgiving, 49ers +10 vs. the Cardinals, Eagles +23 vs. the Patriots, and Dolphins +16 vs. the Steelers.
This next paragraph might soon be known as the NFC trend. I've written all season about how the AFC is perceived to be stronger and that people are betting those teams blindly in interconference play. Last week, the NFC went 3-1 both SU and ATS and is now 23-21 SU and 21-20-3 ATS. I'm still kicking myself that last week in this space I wrote "my contrarian senses are tingling to go the other way" when listing the AFC plays but I only heeded my own advice with the Cardinals vs. the Bengals.
This last paragraph won't help you this season but teams coming off their byes went 4-0 SU and ATS last week and were 18-11-1 this season (the Steelers and Broncos who met in Week 7 off their byes aren't included). Interestingly enough, teams prior to their bye also went 18-11-1 ATS (the Giants and Dolphins faced each other in London before both getting byes.
Other sorts of sports
With Oregon losing at Arizona last Thursday night, that paves the way for Kansas and LSU to meet in the BCS title game if they can run the table. Of course, there's no guarantee as Kansas plays Missouri this week while LSU faces Arkansas, and then each has a tough conference championship game to survive. As of Tuesday, here are the odds to win the BCS title game from the Las Vegas Hilton: LSU 5-4, the "field" (which is really Kansas since the Jayhawks weren't on the list before the season) at 5-1, Missouri at 5-1, Ohio St. and West Virginia at 6-1, and Arizona St. at 12-1 if it can beat USC on Thanksgiving night and then have four teams tumble ahead of them.
* Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his second straight Nextel Cup points championship on Sunday in the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He had a comfortable margin over teammate Jeff Gordon and kept him in his sights all race long to do enough to claim the title. Last winter before the Daytona 500 that kicks off the NASCAR season, Station Casinos had Johnson as the 5-1 co-favorite along with Tony Stewart. Lost in all the accolades for Johnson was the fact Matt Kenseth actually won Sunday's race at odds of 7-1.
* The next big fight here is set for Dec. 8 between undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr., who lives in Vegas, and similarly unbeaten Ricky Hatton of Britain. Mayweather is a -270 favorite. On Tuesday, Wladimir Klitschko and Sultan Ibragimov announced a heavyweight unification title fight (or at least two of the four belts) at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 23. No odds were posted as of early Tuesday.
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NFL ATS STANDINGS (Copyright ViewFromVegas.com) Team (SU record) ATS O/U Patriots (10-0) 9-1 8-2 Packers (9-1) 8-1-1 4-5-1 Browns (6-4) 8-2 10-0 Cowboys (9-1) 7-3 8-2Cardinals (5-5) 7-3 6-4 Bills (5-5) 6-3-1 4-6 Colts (8-2) 6-4 3-7 Steelers (7-3) 6-4 5-5 Jaguars (7-3) 6-4 6-4 Giants (7-3) 6-4 4-6 Buccaneers (6-4) 6-4 4-6 Lions (6-4) 5-4-1 5-5 Seahawks (6-4) 5-4-1 4-6 Chiefs (4-6) 5-4-1 4-6 Vikings (4-6) 4-4-2 4-5-1 Titans (6-4) 5-5 3-7 Chargers (5-5) 5-5 6-4Texans (5-5) 5-5 5-5 Eagles (5-5) 5-5 4-6 Falcons (3-7) 5-5 2-8 Panthers (4-6) 4-6 3-7 Redskins (5-5) 3-5-2 5-5 Dolphins (0-10) 2-5-3 5-5 Bengals (3-7) 3-6-1 6-4 Jets (2-8) 3-6-1 5-5 Broncos (5-5) 3-7 8-2 Saints (4-6) 3-7 5-5 Bears (4-6) 3-7 5-5 Raiders (2-8) 3-7 5-5 Rams (2-8) 3-7 3-7 49ers (2-8) 2-8 3-7 Ravens (4-6) 1-9 5-5 Records based on the closing lines at the Las Vegas Hilton. |
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