Nov. 24-26: NCAA Week 13; NFL Week 12
Last week, I went 3-4 with my college football bankroll plays again. It seems like a lot of Saturdays this year I've started our really well early in the day and then end up around 3-4 (or worse). Maybe it's that I have a better grasp of teams back east...or maybe it's a coincidence. Anyway, that dropped my college bankroll plays to a dismal 33-47 on the year for a net loss of 18.7 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). In the money-line experiment, I actually fared a little better as Texas Tech knocked off Oklahoma as a +240 dog and Washington beat Cal as a +220 price, but even with those two hits, the five losses meant the money-line plays lost 0.4 units to stand at a net loss of 19.5 units on the season.
The NFL bankroll, on the heels of a 6-0 record the previous week, went 1-4 last week and now stands a 28-28-1 for a net loss of 2.8 units or basically the 10-percent vig on losing wagers. In respect to money lines, the Cardinals over the Bengals was the only outright winner at +150, so I dropped 2.5 units to drop back into the red at a net loss of 1.6 units. I'm hopeful that will all the favorites coming in last week and sweeping the Thanksgiving card as well that the chalk players will continue to drive up the lines for contrarian/underdog bettors to grab some extra points and hopefully end the rest of the football season on an up note.
Another thing I've felt has led to my poor college record this year was because I felt compelled to use all seven of my plays each week in the Leroy's College Challenge, even if I really liked only 3 or 4 games on a Saturday. A lot of times I would do well with my top plays but get dragged down by lesser opinions. So, this week, I'm just going to go with my top four plays. The temptation is to load up on the units to try and dig out of the hole, but that's not good money management to increase bet size when losing.
Kansas -1.5 vs. Missouri (-115 on the money line)
Maryland +2.5 vs. N.C. St. (+110)
Tennessee +3 vs. Kentucky (+125)
Utah +4.5 vs. BYU (+170)
In the NFL, I'm going with some big underdogs. It just looks like the oddsmakers are overadjusting to get money on these lesser teams and I feel there's definite value when that happens. And while the odds are against these teams winning outright -- except for Redskins vs. Bucs -- it will only take one other outright upset to make the weekend profitable.
Bills +8 vs. Jaguars (+300)
Redskins +3 vs. Bucs (+160)
49ers +10.5 vs. Cardinals (+475)
Eagles +234 vs. Patriots (+2500)
Dolphins +16 vs. Steelers (+900)
The NFL bankroll, on the heels of a 6-0 record the previous week, went 1-4 last week and now stands a 28-28-1 for a net loss of 2.8 units or basically the 10-percent vig on losing wagers. In respect to money lines, the Cardinals over the Bengals was the only outright winner at +150, so I dropped 2.5 units to drop back into the red at a net loss of 1.6 units. I'm hopeful that will all the favorites coming in last week and sweeping the Thanksgiving card as well that the chalk players will continue to drive up the lines for contrarian/underdog bettors to grab some extra points and hopefully end the rest of the football season on an up note.
Another thing I've felt has led to my poor college record this year was because I felt compelled to use all seven of my plays each week in the Leroy's College Challenge, even if I really liked only 3 or 4 games on a Saturday. A lot of times I would do well with my top plays but get dragged down by lesser opinions. So, this week, I'm just going to go with my top four plays. The temptation is to load up on the units to try and dig out of the hole, but that's not good money management to increase bet size when losing.
Kansas -1.5 vs. Missouri (-115 on the money line)
Maryland +2.5 vs. N.C. St. (+110)
Tennessee +3 vs. Kentucky (+125)
Utah +4.5 vs. BYU (+170)
In the NFL, I'm going with some big underdogs. It just looks like the oddsmakers are overadjusting to get money on these lesser teams and I feel there's definite value when that happens. And while the odds are against these teams winning outright -- except for Redskins vs. Bucs -- it will only take one other outright upset to make the weekend profitable.
Bills +8 vs. Jaguars (+300)
Redskins +3 vs. Bucs (+160)
49ers +10.5 vs. Cardinals (+475)
Eagles +234 vs. Patriots (+2500)
Dolphins +16 vs. Steelers (+900)
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