Dec. 1-3: NCAA Week 14; NFL Week 13
I felt much better after last week's results as I cut down to just four college plays (I mentioned feeling like I spread myself too thin by going with 7 plays each week and being disappointed with the results as a lot of my top plays succeeded but I ended up with losing overall records due to using all 7 plays that I went with in the Leroy's College Challenge). The results weren't stellar last week as I went 2-2 in the colleges, but that was still an improvement on previous weeks, especially since in addition to the two wins on Maryland and Tennessee, I also had Utah +4.5 vs. BYU and the Utes were ahead 10-9 in the closing minutes. BYU moved into position to kick the winning field goal, which would have kept that as a winning bet, but the Cougars punched it in for a TD and a 17-10 final. Even so, the four plays showed a profit on the money line as Maryland was +110 and Tennessee was +125. Cutting back on the plays won't cut into the season-long losses (35-49 for a net loss of 18.9 units as straight bet and a nearly identical loss of 19.15 units if plays on the money lines) but at least I feel better about giving out more solid selections.
My NFL bankroll plays started out even worse on Sunday as I dropped the Bills +8 vs. the Jaguars and the Redskins +3 vs. the Buccaneers. Both were frustrating as the Bills were only down 8 in the fourth quarter with a chance to cover, but the wheels fell off; and the Redskins, despite six turnovers, had every opportunity to pull out the victory but fell short just like they did the prior week vs. the Cowboys. But at least I rallied as I won with the Cardinals +10.5 vs. the 49ers in the afternoon games, the Eagles +23.5 vs. the Patriots on Sunday night and then the Dolphins +16 vs. the Steelers on Monday night. The 3-2 mark put the season-long record at 31-30-1 for a net loss of 2 units. The 49ers came through at +475 on the money line to show a profit of 0.75 units and the money-line plays on the season are just down 0.85 units. I'd be back in black if the Eagles (as high as +2500 vs. the Pats) or the Dolphins (+900 vs. the Steelers) had pulled out their close games.
It's a really short NCAA card this Saturday, so it stands to reason I'm going with even fewer plays as I only like three games, all out West. I hope to get some momentum going into the bowl seasons (where frankly I usually start strong with the early minor bowls and then struggle with the marquee matchups):
UCLA +20 vs. USC (+800 on the ML)...USC on roll but UCLA defense stepped up last week in shutting out Oregon, even if it was against Ryan Leaf's younger brother...Bruins, who beat USC last year, should cover 20 in rivalry game
Arizona +7 vs. Arizona St. (+220)...Arizona also beat Oregon...ASU is heading in wrong direction
Washington +14 vs. Hawaii (+450)...in year of college football upsets, who says the undefeated Warriors can't lose to a BCS team, even if it is the Huskies
Here's my five plays in the NFL, and I'm again going with the dogs on Sunday and Monday night:
Bills +6 vs. Redskins (+220)...liked the matchup even before Sean Taylor's death putting Skins in state of mourning
Jaguars +7 vs. the Colts (+250)...physical Jags match up well with Colts, who have been struggling of late
Chiefs +6 vs. the Chargers (+230)...K.C. won first meeting in S.D., now back home vs. inconsistent Chargers
Bengals +7 vs. the Steelers (+280)...Pittsburgh still over-rated in my opinion, Bengals show pride in primetime
Ravens +20.5 vs. the Patriots (+900)...numbers still too high on Pats, Ravens also play for pride on national TV
My NFL bankroll plays started out even worse on Sunday as I dropped the Bills +8 vs. the Jaguars and the Redskins +3 vs. the Buccaneers. Both were frustrating as the Bills were only down 8 in the fourth quarter with a chance to cover, but the wheels fell off; and the Redskins, despite six turnovers, had every opportunity to pull out the victory but fell short just like they did the prior week vs. the Cowboys. But at least I rallied as I won with the Cardinals +10.5 vs. the 49ers in the afternoon games, the Eagles +23.5 vs. the Patriots on Sunday night and then the Dolphins +16 vs. the Steelers on Monday night. The 3-2 mark put the season-long record at 31-30-1 for a net loss of 2 units. The 49ers came through at +475 on the money line to show a profit of 0.75 units and the money-line plays on the season are just down 0.85 units. I'd be back in black if the Eagles (as high as +2500 vs. the Pats) or the Dolphins (+900 vs. the Steelers) had pulled out their close games.
It's a really short NCAA card this Saturday, so it stands to reason I'm going with even fewer plays as I only like three games, all out West. I hope to get some momentum going into the bowl seasons (where frankly I usually start strong with the early minor bowls and then struggle with the marquee matchups):
UCLA +20 vs. USC (+800 on the ML)...USC on roll but UCLA defense stepped up last week in shutting out Oregon, even if it was against Ryan Leaf's younger brother...Bruins, who beat USC last year, should cover 20 in rivalry game
Arizona +7 vs. Arizona St. (+220)...Arizona also beat Oregon...ASU is heading in wrong direction
Washington +14 vs. Hawaii (+450)...in year of college football upsets, who says the undefeated Warriors can't lose to a BCS team, even if it is the Huskies
Here's my five plays in the NFL, and I'm again going with the dogs on Sunday and Monday night:
Bills +6 vs. Redskins (+220)...liked the matchup even before Sean Taylor's death putting Skins in state of mourning
Jaguars +7 vs. the Colts (+250)...physical Jags match up well with Colts, who have been struggling of late
Chiefs +6 vs. the Chargers (+230)...K.C. won first meeting in S.D., now back home vs. inconsistent Chargers
Bengals +7 vs. the Steelers (+280)...Pittsburgh still over-rated in my opinion, Bengals show pride in primetime
Ravens +20.5 vs. the Patriots (+900)...numbers still too high on Pats, Ravens also play for pride on national TV
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