Dec. 16: NFL Week 15
As mentioned in my Daily Racing Form column that is in the Saturday, Dec. 15 issue (and available online here), my picks in Week 15 the past five years have gone 23-6 against the spread for a ridiculous 79 percent. At first glance, one must think of it as a statistical anomaly, but there's no reason to fight it (and maybe, just maybe, my success in this week is due to the 14 weeks of watching all these teams in action and finally figuring things out, or maybe it's because the public's perceptions have been percolating all season and this just happens to be when the lines are most skewed).
Anyway, last week I had my third straight 3-2 week to improve to 37-34-1 for a net loss of 0.4 units as I found the rare dogs that covered with the Lions, Giants and Texans (in fact, the Rams were the only other underdog to cover last week, but that was only against the closing number of +10 as the line was lower for much of the week before the Bengals' 19-10 victory). In our season-long money-line experiment, the Giants came through at +130 and the Texans at +140 (the Lions fell just short vs. the Cowboys or it would have been a very good week) so the ML plays lost 0.3 units and stand at -2.1 units.
Anyway, last week I had my third straight 3-2 week to improve to 37-34-1 for a net loss of 0.4 units as I found the rare dogs that covered with the Lions, Giants and Texans (in fact, the Rams were the only other underdog to cover last week, but that was only against the closing number of +10 as the line was lower for much of the week before the Bengals' 19-10 victory). In our season-long money-line experiment, the Giants came through at +130 and the Texans at +140 (the Lions fell just short vs. the Cowboys or it would have been a very good week) so the ML plays lost 0.3 units and stand at -2.1 units.
Here are my six Week 15 plays, all of which are on Sunday:
Cardinals +4 vs. the Saints (+170 on the ML)
Bills +5.5 vs. the Browns (+200)
Jaguars +3.5 vs. the Steelers (+170)
Jets +23.5 vs. the Patriots (+1100)
Lions +10 vs. the Chargers (+400)
Eagles +10.5 vs. the Cowboys. (+450)
NOTE: All of my college bowl selections will be posted by Monday with full analysis of my top selections available in the days leading up to those games.
Cardinals +4 vs. the Saints (+170 on the ML)
Bills +5.5 vs. the Browns (+200)
Jaguars +3.5 vs. the Steelers (+170)
Jets +23.5 vs. the Patriots (+1100)
Lions +10 vs. the Chargers (+400)
Eagles +10.5 vs. the Cowboys. (+450)
NOTE: All of my college bowl selections will be posted by Monday with full analysis of my top selections available in the days leading up to those games.
Comments