Dec,. 26: Motor City Bowl
I lost my first two official bowl plays on Nevada and BYU, so I'm 0-2 for a net loss of 2.2 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). The silver lining is if played on the money line, I would have won 1 unit on BYU and lost 1 on Nevada and would be even (unfortunately, that's now how I bet them). The other black cloud is that in all bowl games (see chart below), I'm 0-6 with my early recommendations. Hopefully I'll start to turn it around with tonight's play.
MOTOR CITY BOWL
Central Michigan (+8) vs. Purdue (+260 on the money line)
These teams met on Sept. 15 with Purdue jumping out to a 31-0 lead and then coasting to a 45-22 victory (note: Central Michigan did cover the second half). Central Michigan went out the next week and lost 44-14 to Division I-AA North Dakota St., but then they turned their season around, winning 7 of 9 games, including the MAC Championship. Purdue, on the other hand, rolled to a 5-0 start but after beating Notre Dame, they've won only two of their last seven games, so these are totally different teams. Granted, Purdue played a better schedule in the Big 10 than Central Michigan in the MAC, but I'll still take the hotter (CMU has averaged 38 points a game in their last five games and are led by quarterback Dan Levour, who is just the second player in NCAA history to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for more than 1,000 in the same season)) and more confident team, especially since I can't imagine Purdue is too thrilled about playing in the Motor City Bowl. Of course, Purdue isn't too good at getting up for bowl anyway as they're 1-6 straight up and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven bowl games under coach Joe Tiller. Handicapper Marc Lawrence (playbook.com) has a trend that says that MAC teams are 4-0 ATS in bowl games against teams that limped into their bowl off back-to-back-losses. I'll take the motivated, improving underdog vs. a (hopefully) unmotivated favorite. And the revenge angle doesn't hurt.
I'll post again on Friday with my bowl games through the end of the year, plus Week 17 in the NFL. The goal is then to post the rest of the bowl games on Monday with NFL wild-card playoff picks later next week.
MOTOR CITY BOWL
Central Michigan (+8) vs. Purdue (+260 on the money line)
These teams met on Sept. 15 with Purdue jumping out to a 31-0 lead and then coasting to a 45-22 victory (note: Central Michigan did cover the second half). Central Michigan went out the next week and lost 44-14 to Division I-AA North Dakota St., but then they turned their season around, winning 7 of 9 games, including the MAC Championship. Purdue, on the other hand, rolled to a 5-0 start but after beating Notre Dame, they've won only two of their last seven games, so these are totally different teams. Granted, Purdue played a better schedule in the Big 10 than Central Michigan in the MAC, but I'll still take the hotter (CMU has averaged 38 points a game in their last five games and are led by quarterback Dan Levour, who is just the second player in NCAA history to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for more than 1,000 in the same season)) and more confident team, especially since I can't imagine Purdue is too thrilled about playing in the Motor City Bowl. Of course, Purdue isn't too good at getting up for bowl anyway as they're 1-6 straight up and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven bowl games under coach Joe Tiller. Handicapper Marc Lawrence (playbook.com) has a trend that says that MAC teams are 4-0 ATS in bowl games against teams that limped into their bowl off back-to-back-losses. I'll take the motivated, improving underdog vs. a (hopefully) unmotivated favorite. And the revenge angle doesn't hurt.
I'll post again on Friday with my bowl games through the end of the year, plus Week 17 in the NFL. The goal is then to post the rest of the bowl games on Monday with NFL wild-card playoff picks later next week.
| Date | Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Selection | Result |
| Dec. 20 | Poinsettia | Utah | Navy | 8 | Utah | Loss |
| Dec. 21 | New Orleans | Fla. Atlantic | Memphis | 3 | Memphis | Loss |
| Dec. 22 | Papajohns.com | Cincinnati | Southern Miss | 10.5 | Cincinnati | Loss |
| New Mexico | New Mexico | Nevada | 3 | Nevada | Loss | |
| Las Vegas | BYU | UCLA | 6 | BYU | Loss | |
| Dec. 23 | Hawaii | Boise St. | E, Carolina | 10.5 | Boise St. | Loss |
| Dec. 26 | Motor City | Purdue | C. Michigan | 9 | C. Michigan | |
| Dec. 27 | Holiday | Texas | Arizona St. | 2 | Texas | |
| Dec. 28 | Champs Sports | Boston Coll. | Michigan St. | 3.5 | Boston Coll. | |
| Texas | TCU | Houston | 3 | Houston | ||
| Emerald | Oregon St. | Maryland | 4.5 | Oregon St. | ||
| Dec. 29 | Meineke Car Care | Wake Forest | Connecticut | 3 | Connecticut | |
| Liberty | Miss. St. | Central Florida | 3 | Miss. St. | ||
| Alamo | Penn St. | Texas A&M | 6 | Texas A&M | ||
| Dec. 30 | Independence | Alabama | Colorado | 4 | Alabama | |
| Sun | South Florida | Oregon | 6 | South Florida | ||
| Chick-fil-A | Clemson | Auburn | 1.5 | Clemson | ||
| Dec. 31 | Armed Forces | California | Air Force | 4 | Air Force | |
| Humanitarian | Georgia Tech | Fresno St. | 4.5 | Fresno St. | ||
| Music Bowl | Kentucky | Florida St. | 3 | Kentucky | ||
| Insight | Oklahoma St. | Indiana | 4 | Oklahoma St. | ||
| Jan. 1 | Outback | Tennessee | Wisconsin | 3 | Tennessee | |
| Cotton | Missouri | Arkansas | 3 | Missouri | ||
| Gator | Texas Tech | Virginia | 5.5 | Texas Tech | ||
| Capital One | Florida | Michigan | 10.5 | Michigan | ||
| Rose | Southern Cal | Illinois | 13.5 | Southern Cal | ||
| Sugar | Georgia | Hawaii | 9 | Hawaii | ||
| Jan. 2 | Fiesta | Oklahoma | West Virginia | 7 | Oklahoma | |
| Jan. 3 | Orange | Virginia Tech | Kansas | 3.5 | Kansas | |
| Jan. 5 | International | Rutgers | Ball St. | 10 | Rutgers | |
| Jan. 6 | GMAC | Tulsa | Bowling Green | 4.5 | Tulsa | |
| Jan. 7 | BCS Title | LSU | Ohio St. | 4.5 | LSU |
When I first read your bowl picks, I wondered if something was wrong with my brain, perhaps too many free casino cocktails. Then I decided to bet against ALL of your touts, and have another cocktail.
No offense, Dave, but I think you are on a roll! Keep it going and I will get back all my 2007 parimutual losses.
Jim L
Reno
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No offense taken. It has been pretty brutal, but when posting plays in public you have to be willing to take the abuse as well as the accolades. Sorry to end the streak with Central Michigan tonight
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Hey looks like your lucks turning around . Hopfully this weekend will treat you alot better. I need some of those free casino Cocktails jimbo was talking about. I'll take a case........It will make it easier to place my bets
Craig
Denver
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