Dec. 29-30: NFL Week 17 plus bowls
Last week, the 2-3 mark dropped my record in this column to 42-40-1 on the year for a net loss of 2 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). In the money-line experiment, the Bengals were the only team that came through as a +130 price, so after subtracting the four losses, the money-line plays are now showing a loss of 2.6 units (virtually the same as playing them straight).
This week, I'm fading five teams that are in must-win situations with playoff berths on the line. The basic feeling is that these teams are in "must-win" situations because they haven't gotten the job done earlier in the season, and now that everyone knows they need to win, the oddsmakers have inflated the lines to the point where there is definitely value going against them (note: I don't trust the Broncos enough to take them vs. the Vikings):
Cowboys +9 over Redskins (+350 on the ML)
Bears +2 over Saints (+110)
49ers +11.5 over Browns (+500)
Colts +5.5 over Titans (+200)
Raiders +8 over Chargers (+325)
I bounced back from my 0-2 start in college bowl games (and 0-6 in overall recommendations) with Central Michigan covering vs. Purdue the other night. I've only got two plays this weekend, with one being a side and another being a total:
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest UNDER 48
I had considered using UConn as a small underdog play getting +2 in a game that should be close, but I think the better play is taking the game to stay under the 48 points. Neither team has an explosive offense and has a stellar defense. Wake has a lot of speed on the defensive side of the ball and should contain UConn's attack, while UConn has held all but two opponents to under 20 points. West Virginia scored 66 on them, but Wake is no West Virginia. This total is pretty low among bowl games, but just like the UCLA-BYU matchup in the Las Vegas Bowl that had a similar number (and BYU prevailed 17-16), this should also come in comfortably under.
LIBERTY BOWL
Mississippi St. +3 vs. Central Florida
I'll take the underdog from the SEC over the favorite from Conference USA. I feel that the fact Central Florida is favored has a lot to do with the public perception after finally getting to see the nation's leading running back, Kevin Smith, in the CUSA title game. He is a great player, but with extra time to prepare, I'll take my chances with the Bulldogs' defense. Besides, MSU has a decent running back in Anthony Dixon who might very well outrush Smith in this matchup.
I'll post again on Monday with my early-week games as we ring in the new year.
This week, I'm fading five teams that are in must-win situations with playoff berths on the line. The basic feeling is that these teams are in "must-win" situations because they haven't gotten the job done earlier in the season, and now that everyone knows they need to win, the oddsmakers have inflated the lines to the point where there is definitely value going against them (note: I don't trust the Broncos enough to take them vs. the Vikings):
Cowboys +9 over Redskins (+350 on the ML)
Bears +2 over Saints (+110)
49ers +11.5 over Browns (+500)
Colts +5.5 over Titans (+200)
Raiders +8 over Chargers (+325)
I bounced back from my 0-2 start in college bowl games (and 0-6 in overall recommendations) with Central Michigan covering vs. Purdue the other night. I've only got two plays this weekend, with one being a side and another being a total:
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest UNDER 48
I had considered using UConn as a small underdog play getting +2 in a game that should be close, but I think the better play is taking the game to stay under the 48 points. Neither team has an explosive offense and has a stellar defense. Wake has a lot of speed on the defensive side of the ball and should contain UConn's attack, while UConn has held all but two opponents to under 20 points. West Virginia scored 66 on them, but Wake is no West Virginia. This total is pretty low among bowl games, but just like the UCLA-BYU matchup in the Las Vegas Bowl that had a similar number (and BYU prevailed 17-16), this should also come in comfortably under.
LIBERTY BOWL
Mississippi St. +3 vs. Central Florida
I'll take the underdog from the SEC over the favorite from Conference USA. I feel that the fact Central Florida is favored has a lot to do with the public perception after finally getting to see the nation's leading running back, Kevin Smith, in the CUSA title game. He is a great player, but with extra time to prepare, I'll take my chances with the Bulldogs' defense. Besides, MSU has a decent running back in Anthony Dixon who might very well outrush Smith in this matchup.
I'll post again on Monday with my early-week games as we ring in the new year.
| Date | Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Selection | Result |
| Dec. 20 | Poinsettia | Utah | Navy | 8 | Utah | Loss |
| Dec. 21 | New Orleans | Fla. Atlantic | Memphis | 3 | Memphis | Loss |
| Dec. 22 | Papajohns.com | Cincinnati | Southern Miss | 10.5 | Cincinnati | Loss |
| New Mexico | New Mexico | Nevada | 3 | Nevada | Loss | |
| Las Vegas | BYU | UCLA | 6 | BYU | Loss | |
| Dec. 23 | Hawaii | Boise St. | E, Carolina | 10.5 | Boise St. | Loss |
| Dec. 26 | Motor City | Purdue | C. Michigan | 9 | C. Michigan | Win |
| Dec. 27 | Holiday | Texas | Arizona St. | 2 | Texas | Win |
| Dec. 28 | Champs Sports | Boston Coll. | Michigan St. | 3.5 | Boston Coll. | Loss |
| Texas | TCU | Houston | 3 | Houston | Loss | |
| Emerald | Oregon St. | Maryland | 4.5 | Oregon St. | Win | |
| Dec. 29 | Meineke Car Care | Wake Forest | Connecticut | 3 | Connecticut | |
| Liberty | Miss. St. | Central Florida | 3 | Miss. St. | ||
| Alamo | Penn St. | Texas A&M | 6 | Texas A&M | ||
| Dec. 30 | Independence | Alabama | Colorado | 4 | Alabama | |
| Dec. 31 | Sun | South Florida | Oregon | 6 | South Florida | |
| Chick-fil-A | Clemson | Auburn | 1.5 | Clemson | ||
| Armed Forces | California | Air Force | 4 | Air Force | ||
| Humanitarian | Georgia Tech | Fresno St. | 4.5 | Fresno St. | ||
| Music Bowl | Kentucky | Florida St. | 3 | Kentucky | ||
| Insight | Oklahoma St. | Indiana | 4 | Oklahoma St. | ||
| Jan. 1 | Outback | Tennessee | Wisconsin | 3 | Tennessee | |
| Cotton | Missouri | Arkansas | 3 | Missouri | ||
| Gator | Texas Tech | Virginia | 5.5 | Texas Tech | ||
| Capital One | Florida | Michigan | 10.5 | Michigan | ||
| Rose | Southern Cal | Illinois | 13.5 | Southern Cal | ||
| Sugar | Georgia | Hawaii | 9 | Hawaii | ||
| Jan. 2 | Fiesta | Oklahoma | West Virginia | 7 | Oklahoma | |
| Jan. 3 | Orange | Virginia Tech | Kansas | 3.5 | Kansas | |
| Jan. 5 | International | Rutgers | Ball St. | 10 | Rutgers | |
| Jan. 6 | GMAC | Tulsa | Bowling Green | 4.5 | Tulsa | |
| Jan. 7 | BCS Title | LSU | Ohio St. | 4.5 | LSU |
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