Jan. 1: New Year's Day Bowls
First of all, Happy New Year to everyone, and hopefully we kick off 2008 with some New Year's Day winners.
2007 ended with a 2-2 mark from four plays. Fortunately I didn't make Air Force a 2-unit play as I loved the Falcons and it looked like a great play when they jumped out to a 21-0 lead. So far in the bowls, my bankrolls plays are still above .500 at 5-4 for a net profit of 0.6 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1).
I've got three selections on Tuesday. I'm not releasing a play on Wednesday's Oklahoma-West Virginia game as I bet Oklahoma -6.5 when it was announced that Rich Rodriguez was leaving WVU for Michigan and I bet back West Virginia +8 after the line predictably steamed, so I'm just cheering for it to land on Oklahoma by 7 to win both bets (or on 8 to win one and push the other). I'll post my Jan. 3 Orange Bowl selection on Thursday morning along with my NFL wild-card plays.
COTTON BOWL
Missouri -3.5 vs. Arkansas (grab -3 if you can get it)
Missouri still has something to prove as it got passed over for the Orange Bowl in favor of Kansas, which the Tigers beat. Arkansas obviously finished the season strong, winning five of their last six games including an upset of No. 1 LSU, but it wasn't enough to keep coach Houston Nutt around, and we've seen how abysmal teams have performed this bowl season after losing their head coach. From a fundamental handicapping standpoint, we have a contrast of styles with Arkansas' running attack and Missouri's aerial arsenal, but Missouri's defense allows only 118 rushing yards per game, so they at least have a chance to contain the Arkansas duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones while Missouri QB Chase Daniel shouldn't have any problem airing it out to his talented receivers, especially Jeremy Maclin.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Michigan +11 vs. Florida
This is a rare coach of a coach resigning or being fired and actually sticking around (or being allowed to stick around) to coach the bowl game as Floyd Carr will be on the Michigan sidelines. I think that will make this result difference from all the other coaching changes. But basically I just think this line is too high for a New Year's Day bowl (though you'll note I'm not taking Illinois +14 vs. USC in the Rose Bowl), especially as Florida's defense has had problems holding teams down. We also have the anti-Heisman angle working for us as Tim Tebow will have a bull's-eye on his back.
SUGAR BOWL
Hawaii +8 vs. Georgia
This should be an exciting way to end a day of good bowl matchups. It should be very high-scoring as Hawaii's passing game should have success moving the ball despite Georgia's size advantage up front, and Hawaii's defense will have a hard time slowing down Georgia's running game. But I think the Warriors can trade scores with the Bulldogs in the perfect conditions of the Louisiana Superdome as they also have something to prove to show their season wasn't a fluke (think Boise St. vs. Oklahoma last year).
Note: the following chart show my early bowl recommendations that were posted on Dec. 17, the Monday before the start of the bowl season. Please note that some lines have moved and are graded against those Dec. 17 lines. Best bets are in bold.
2007 ended with a 2-2 mark from four plays. Fortunately I didn't make Air Force a 2-unit play as I loved the Falcons and it looked like a great play when they jumped out to a 21-0 lead. So far in the bowls, my bankrolls plays are still above .500 at 5-4 for a net profit of 0.6 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1).
I've got three selections on Tuesday. I'm not releasing a play on Wednesday's Oklahoma-West Virginia game as I bet Oklahoma -6.5 when it was announced that Rich Rodriguez was leaving WVU for Michigan and I bet back West Virginia +8 after the line predictably steamed, so I'm just cheering for it to land on Oklahoma by 7 to win both bets (or on 8 to win one and push the other). I'll post my Jan. 3 Orange Bowl selection on Thursday morning along with my NFL wild-card plays.
COTTON BOWL
Missouri -3.5 vs. Arkansas (grab -3 if you can get it)
Missouri still has something to prove as it got passed over for the Orange Bowl in favor of Kansas, which the Tigers beat. Arkansas obviously finished the season strong, winning five of their last six games including an upset of No. 1 LSU, but it wasn't enough to keep coach Houston Nutt around, and we've seen how abysmal teams have performed this bowl season after losing their head coach. From a fundamental handicapping standpoint, we have a contrast of styles with Arkansas' running attack and Missouri's aerial arsenal, but Missouri's defense allows only 118 rushing yards per game, so they at least have a chance to contain the Arkansas duo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones while Missouri QB Chase Daniel shouldn't have any problem airing it out to his talented receivers, especially Jeremy Maclin.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
Michigan +11 vs. Florida
This is a rare coach of a coach resigning or being fired and actually sticking around (or being allowed to stick around) to coach the bowl game as Floyd Carr will be on the Michigan sidelines. I think that will make this result difference from all the other coaching changes. But basically I just think this line is too high for a New Year's Day bowl (though you'll note I'm not taking Illinois +14 vs. USC in the Rose Bowl), especially as Florida's defense has had problems holding teams down. We also have the anti-Heisman angle working for us as Tim Tebow will have a bull's-eye on his back.
SUGAR BOWL
Hawaii +8 vs. Georgia
This should be an exciting way to end a day of good bowl matchups. It should be very high-scoring as Hawaii's passing game should have success moving the ball despite Georgia's size advantage up front, and Hawaii's defense will have a hard time slowing down Georgia's running game. But I think the Warriors can trade scores with the Bulldogs in the perfect conditions of the Louisiana Superdome as they also have something to prove to show their season wasn't a fluke (think Boise St. vs. Oklahoma last year).
Note: the following chart show my early bowl recommendations that were posted on Dec. 17, the Monday before the start of the bowl season. Please note that some lines have moved and are graded against those Dec. 17 lines. Best bets are in bold.
| Date | Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Selection | Result |
| Dec. 20 | Poinsettia | Utah | Navy | 8 | Utah | Loss |
| Dec. 21 | New Orleans | Fla. Atlantic | Memphis | 3 | Memphis | Loss |
| Dec. 22 | Papajohns.com | Cincinnati | Southern Miss | 10.5 | Cincinnati | Loss |
| New Mexico | New Mexico | Nevada | 3 | Nevada | Loss | |
| Las Vegas | BYU | UCLA | 6 | BYU | Loss | |
| Dec. 23 | Hawaii | Boise St. | E Carolina | 10.5 | Boise St. | Loss |
| Dec. 26 | Motor City | Purdue | C. Michigan | 9 | C. Michigan | Win |
| Dec. 27 | Holiday | Texas | Arizona St. | 2 | Texas | Win |
| Dec. 28 | Champs Sports | Boston Coll. | Michigan St. | 3.5 | Boston Coll. | Loss |
| Texas | TCU | Houston | 3 | Houston | Loss | |
| Emerald | Oregon St. | Maryland | 4.5 | Oregon St. | Win | |
| Dec. 29 | Meineke Car Care | Wake Forest | Connecticut | 3 | Connecticut | Loss |
| Liberty | Miss. St. | Central Florida | 3 | Miss. St. | Win | |
| Alamo | Penn St. | Texas A&M | 6 | Texas A&M | Loss | |
| Dec. 30 | Independence | Alabama | Colorado | 4 | Alabama | Win |
| Dec. 31 | Sun | South Florida | Oregon | 6 | South Florida | Loss |
| Chick-fil-A | Clemson | Auburn | 1.5 | Clemson | Loss | |
| Armed Forces | California | Air Force | 4 | Air Force | Loss | |
| Humanitarian | Georgia Tech | Fresno St. | 4.5 | Fresno St. | Win | |
| Music Bowl | Kentucky | Florida St. | 3 | Kentucky | Win | |
| Insight | Oklahoma St. | Indiana | 4 | Oklahoma St. | Win | |
| Jan. 1 | Outback | Tennessee | Wisconsin | 3 | Tennessee | |
| Cotton | Missouri | Arkansas | 3 | Missouri | ||
| Gator | Texas Tech | Virginia | 5.5 | Texas Tech | ||
| Capital One | Florida | Michigan | 10.5 | Michigan | ||
| Rose | Southern Cal | Illinois | 13.5 | Southern Cal | ||
| Sugar | Georgia | Hawaii | 9 | Hawaii | ||
| Jan. 2 | Fiesta | Oklahoma | West Virginia | 7 | Oklahoma | |
| Jan. 3 | Orange | Virginia Tech | Kansas | 3.5 | Kansas | |
| Jan. 5 | International | Rutgers | Ball St. | 10 | Rutgers | |
| Jan. 6 | GMAC | Tulsa | Bowling Green | 4.5 | Tulsa | |
| Jan. 7 | BCS Title | LSU | Ohio St. | 4.5 | LSU |
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