Jan. 3-6: Orange Bowl, NFL wild-card games
The Orange Bowl goes Thursday night, but I'm thinking more people will be checking this out for NFL plays, so I'll lead with those.
Long-time followers, or those who just observe, might go into shock when they see I'm going with three favorites out of the four NFL wild-card games this weekend (I'll pause for a few seconds here to let those people get up from the floor). OK, now that's we're all back in our chairs, I just can't talk myself to back more of the underdogs this week, though I can still claim my "contrarian" title as a lot of the public money is coming in on some of the dogs (Redskins and Giants) that I'm fading. Here's a quick look at all four games:
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Redskins: When I first saw this line at 5, I was tempted to jump on the underdog, but couldn't pull the trigger. The Seahawks are a much better team at home, and they have the loudest fans, and that gets amped up in the playoffs. Todd Collins has played admirably for the Skins, but the magic ends here against an experienced team. The fact that the public continues to bet this line down actually gives me more confidence that the Seahawks are the right side. As of this writing, the most common line was Seattle -3.5 but a few books have gone to -3 (with -120 vig attached) and I'm hopeful we'll only have to lay -3 (with the standard -110) by Saturday.
Jaguars (-2.5) over STEELERS: I've gone against the Steelers many times this year as I've felt all along they weren't as good as their gaudy start vs. a weak schedule would indicate, so I knew when this matchup was imminent that I would be on the Jaguars. I didn't think I would be laying points on the road, however. I did re-handicap the game to see if I could make a case for fading the public and flipping to the home dog (which are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times in wild-card games), but with the way the Jaguars went into Pittsburgh last month and dominated in a 29-22 victory in the snow to dispel any thoughts of them being a "soft warm-weather" team and now with the injuries piling up for the Steelers, the Jaguars are a play at any price under a field goal.
BUCCANEERS (-3 EV) over Giants: The Bucs are my darkhorse team in the NFC as they have the defense to match up with the Giants (and then the Cowboys and/or Packers) as well as a strong running game and the veteran leadership of Jeff Garcia. I can see Monday's headlines
TITANS (+9) over Chargers: With or without Vince Young (and he has been upgraded to probable), the Titans are a live dog. Just four weeks ago (albeit in Nashville), the Titans shut down the Chargers most of the game before letting them rally late. Credit goes to the Chargers for the comeback, but considering that game was around pick-em, why are they favored by nearly 10 points now? I can't help but think this number if overinflated by the oddsmakers, who know the public is looking to back L.T. and the Chargers. The Titans also play much better as an underdog (3-2-1 ATS this season, though one of those losses was that fluky loss to the Chargers, and 12-3-1 since Young took over as the starter last year). And we've got Jeff Fisher vs. Norv Turner.
In the colleges, I started the New Year nicely with wins on Missouri and Michigan before losing with Hawaii. The 2-1 mark raised my overall bowl bankroll record, including the under in the UConn-Wake Forest game, to 7-5 for a net profit of 1.5 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Thanks to Michigan beating Florida outright as a +360 underdog, if you had played all my plays on the money line, you'd be up around 2.8 units (wish I had followed my own advice).
Anyway, I don't have a strong opinion on the BCS title game (or the two anti-climactic bowls), so Thursday night's game is the last college release of the season.
ORANGE BOWL
Kansas +3 vs. Virginia Tech (o/u 52.5)
This is a matchup between Kansas, the No. 2 scoring offense in the country, and Virginia Tech, the No. 2 scoring defense. However, I think the key to the game is the much-less-publicized battle between the Virginia Tech offense and the Kansas defense, which is fourth nationally in scoring defense. And that's where the mismatch is as the Hokies' offense has been inconsistent all year. I'm not saying the Kansas offense will run roughshod over Tech, but Todd Reesing & Co. have a much better chance of breaking through than the Hokies with their rotating two-QB system with Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. I'm sure you've heard the saying: if you think you have two starting quarterbacks, you really have none. At the risk of losing all of my modest profits this bowl season, I'm also going to go on record with a play on the under 52.5 based on what I've written above. Hopefully there's no special teams touchdowns, especially from Virginia Tech.
PLAY: Kansas +3 and Under 52.5
Note: the following chart show my early bowl recommendations that were posted on Dec. 17, the Monday before the start of the bowl season. Please note that some lines have moved and are graded against those Dec. 17 lines. Best bets are in bold.
Long-time followers, or those who just observe, might go into shock when they see I'm going with three favorites out of the four NFL wild-card games this weekend (I'll pause for a few seconds here to let those people get up from the floor). OK, now that's we're all back in our chairs, I just can't talk myself to back more of the underdogs this week, though I can still claim my "contrarian" title as a lot of the public money is coming in on some of the dogs (Redskins and Giants) that I'm fading. Here's a quick look at all four games:
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Redskins: When I first saw this line at 5, I was tempted to jump on the underdog, but couldn't pull the trigger. The Seahawks are a much better team at home, and they have the loudest fans, and that gets amped up in the playoffs. Todd Collins has played admirably for the Skins, but the magic ends here against an experienced team. The fact that the public continues to bet this line down actually gives me more confidence that the Seahawks are the right side. As of this writing, the most common line was Seattle -3.5 but a few books have gone to -3 (with -120 vig attached) and I'm hopeful we'll only have to lay -3 (with the standard -110) by Saturday.
Jaguars (-2.5) over STEELERS: I've gone against the Steelers many times this year as I've felt all along they weren't as good as their gaudy start vs. a weak schedule would indicate, so I knew when this matchup was imminent that I would be on the Jaguars. I didn't think I would be laying points on the road, however. I did re-handicap the game to see if I could make a case for fading the public and flipping to the home dog (which are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times in wild-card games), but with the way the Jaguars went into Pittsburgh last month and dominated in a 29-22 victory in the snow to dispel any thoughts of them being a "soft warm-weather" team and now with the injuries piling up for the Steelers, the Jaguars are a play at any price under a field goal.
BUCCANEERS (-3 EV) over Giants: The Bucs are my darkhorse team in the NFC as they have the defense to match up with the Giants (and then the Cowboys and/or Packers) as well as a strong running game and the veteran leadership of Jeff Garcia. I can see Monday's headlines
TITANS (+9) over Chargers: With or without Vince Young (and he has been upgraded to probable), the Titans are a live dog. Just four weeks ago (albeit in Nashville), the Titans shut down the Chargers most of the game before letting them rally late. Credit goes to the Chargers for the comeback, but considering that game was around pick-em, why are they favored by nearly 10 points now? I can't help but think this number if overinflated by the oddsmakers, who know the public is looking to back L.T. and the Chargers. The Titans also play much better as an underdog (3-2-1 ATS this season, though one of those losses was that fluky loss to the Chargers, and 12-3-1 since Young took over as the starter last year). And we've got Jeff Fisher vs. Norv Turner.
In the colleges, I started the New Year nicely with wins on Missouri and Michigan before losing with Hawaii. The 2-1 mark raised my overall bowl bankroll record, including the under in the UConn-Wake Forest game, to 7-5 for a net profit of 1.5 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Thanks to Michigan beating Florida outright as a +360 underdog, if you had played all my plays on the money line, you'd be up around 2.8 units (wish I had followed my own advice).
Anyway, I don't have a strong opinion on the BCS title game (or the two anti-climactic bowls), so Thursday night's game is the last college release of the season.
ORANGE BOWL
Kansas +3 vs. Virginia Tech (o/u 52.5)
This is a matchup between Kansas, the No. 2 scoring offense in the country, and Virginia Tech, the No. 2 scoring defense. However, I think the key to the game is the much-less-publicized battle between the Virginia Tech offense and the Kansas defense, which is fourth nationally in scoring defense. And that's where the mismatch is as the Hokies' offense has been inconsistent all year. I'm not saying the Kansas offense will run roughshod over Tech, but Todd Reesing & Co. have a much better chance of breaking through than the Hokies with their rotating two-QB system with Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. I'm sure you've heard the saying: if you think you have two starting quarterbacks, you really have none. At the risk of losing all of my modest profits this bowl season, I'm also going to go on record with a play on the under 52.5 based on what I've written above. Hopefully there's no special teams touchdowns, especially from Virginia Tech.
PLAY: Kansas +3 and Under 52.5
Note: the following chart show my early bowl recommendations that were posted on Dec. 17, the Monday before the start of the bowl season. Please note that some lines have moved and are graded against those Dec. 17 lines. Best bets are in bold.
| Date | Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Selection | Result |
| Dec. 20 | Poinsettia | Utah | Navy | 8 | Utah | Loss |
| Dec. 21 | New Orleans | Fla. Atlantic | Memphis | 3 | Memphis | Loss |
| Dec. 22 | Papajohns.com | Cincinnati | Southern Miss | 10.5 | Cincinnati | Loss |
| New Mexico | New Mexico | Nevada | 3 | Nevada | Loss | |
| Las Vegas | BYU | UCLA | 6 | BYU | Loss | |
| Dec. 23 | Hawaii | Boise St. | E Carolina | 10.5 | Boise St. | Loss |
| Dec. 26 | Motor City | Purdue | C. Michigan | 9 | C. Michigan | Win |
| Dec. 27 | Holiday | Texas | Arizona St. | 2 | Texas | Win |
| Dec. 28 | Champs Sports | Boston Coll. | Michigan St. | 3.5 | Boston Coll. | Loss |
| Texas | TCU | Houston | 3 | Houston | Loss | |
| Emerald | Oregon St. | Maryland | 4.5 | Oregon St. | Win | |
| Dec. 29 | Meineke Car Care | Wake Forest | Connecticut | 3 | Connecticut | Loss |
| Liberty | Miss. St. | Central Florida | 3 | Miss. St. | Win | |
| Alamo | Penn St. | Texas A&M | 6 | Texas A&M | Loss | |
| Dec. 30 | Independence | Alabama | Colorado | 4 | Alabama | Win |
| Dec. 31 | Sun | South Florida | Oregon | 6 | South Florida | Loss |
| Chick-fil-A | Clemson | Auburn | 1.5 | Clemson | Loss | |
| Armed Forces | California | Air Force | 4 | Air Force | Loss | |
| Humanitarian | Georgia Tech | Fresno St. | 4.5 | Fresno St. | Win | |
| Music Bowl | Kentucky | Florida St. | 3 | Kentucky | Win | |
| Insight | Oklahoma St. | Indiana | 4 | Oklahoma St. | Win | |
| Jan. 1 | Outback | Tennessee | Wisconsin | 3 | Tennessee | Win |
| Cotton | Missouri | Arkansas | 3 | Missouri | Win | |
| Gator | Texas Tech | Virginia | 5.5 | Texas Tech | Loss | |
| Capital One | Florida | Michigan | 10.5 | Michigan | Win | |
| Rose | Southern Cal | Illinois | 13.5 | Southern Cal | Win | |
| Sugar | Georgia | Hawaii | 9 | Hawaii | Loss | |
| Jan. 2 | Fiesta | Oklahoma | West Virginia | 7 | Oklahoma | Loss |
| Jan. 3 | Orange | Virginia Tech | Kansas | 3.5 | Kansas | |
| Jan. 5 | International | Rutgers | Ball St. | 10 | Rutgers | |
| Jan. 6 | GMAC | Tulsa | Bowling Green | 4.5 | Tulsa | |
| Jan. 7 | BCS Title | LSU | Ohio St. | 4.5 | LSU |
Comments