Jan. 12-13: NFL divisional playoffs
Last week, I went 1-3 in the wild-card round. I won with the Seahawks over the Redskins but lost with the Buccaneers vs. the Giants and the Titans vs. the Chargers (I wish I had both of the Titans-Chargers games this season only in the first halves). The other loss was the Jaguars -2.5 vs. the Steelers, which caused me to have mixed feelings. I had bet the Jaguars -1 last Monday but didn't release it as a play. By the time I did post it, the line had gone to 2.5, so I was obligated to use the line that was readily available. I still liked the play at that number as it was still under a field goal, but it caused me great consternation when the Jaguars won 31-29 and I thought of the people who might have taken my advice or who I had confirmed their feelings about the game and went ahead and bet it.
The sports betting market is fluid it's hard to not only time your bets at the best time, but if you're a public handicapper, it's hard to release them in a moving market, especially when you have a standard deadline like I usually use of Friday morning for my weekend football selections (maybe that's another reason I rarely take favorites with my public plays because the lines typically heads higher on favorites during the course of the week and I'd be laying a lot more bad numbers).
Anyway, this week I've delayed releasing my plays because I've been waiting and hoping to get an extra half-point here or there. However, I don't want to wait until Saturday with the NFL divisional playoffs starting in the afternoon, so I'm posting them Friday night and will note which lines I'm still waiting on.
Here's a quick look at all four games this weekend:
Seahawks (+7.5) over PACKERS (over/under 43.5): This line opened as high as 8.5 at some books and +8 was available around Las Vegas as recently as Thursday, so while I think the Seahawks are the right side, I'm gun shy about releasing that as an official play for anyone who didn't get better than the current +7.5. Besides, the bet I like better in this game is under 43.5 points. The total opened as low as 40 last Sunday night with most books going with 40.5. During the week, with a non-inclement forecast (at least by Green Bay standards), the number has crept up to 43.5. It looks like that's where it will plateau so it's time to buy high. I really like both defenses and I think both teams will be trying to establish the running games. I mentioned first-half betting above, so I'll toss out another suggestion to look at under 21.5 in the first half, but record-keeping purposes I'll just release my top play: UNDER 43.5 points.
Jaguars (+13.5) over PATRIOTS (o/u 50): This is the main line I've been waiting on. It opened Patriots -12 on Sunday and has been steadily climbing. I was hoping to take the Jaguars +14 (and I'm still waiting with my own money) but need to get these plays posted, so I'll live and die with the +13.5. I just think that while the Patriots haven't lost a game, the Jaguars have actually been playing better overall and I like that they mix the run with the pass (not that the Pats should have to apologize for throwing on everyone) and a defense that is physical and can give the Pats everything they can handle. And, even though it's safe to assume that the Patriots will be motivated to continue their perfect season, let's not forget that they were 2-6 against the spread in the second half of the season (1-5 in their last six) and that among the teams that stayed close to them -- besides the excusable Colts and Giants -- were the Eagles, Ravens and Jets. I'll probably pass on the total, though with both being "over" teams all season long, the 50 looks a tad low even with their stellar defenses. Play: JAGUARS +13.5 and hopefully +14.
Chargers (+9.5) over COLTS (o/u 45.5): I'm posting a shorter number because as of this writing the line is mostly Chargers +9.5, but the Wynn has gone to 10 (though you have to lay -115 to get San Diego +10) and it's looking like as more tourists come in town that 10's will be more readily available. The Chargers have turned their season around and they always match up well with the Colts, having beaten them each of the past two seasons. Granted, they had two kick returns for TDs to grab a big lead earlier this season, but the six interceptions of Peyton Manning weren't a fluke as they'll bring pressure and have an athletic secondary to hopefully get a few this game as well. And hopefully they keep feeding
COWBOYS (-7.5) over Giants (o/u 46.5): This line opened as Cowboys -8 at a lot of Vegas books and it's leveled off at 7.5 most of the week, but some pressure appears to be on the Giants side and we could see it dip to 7 by Sunday, at which time I'll probably back the Cowboys. I haven't been sold on the Giants, plus I can't help but think the Cowboys are going to be out to back Tony Romo to show that his trip to Cancun with Jessica Simpson was blown out of proportion. Besides, Terrell Owens is now expected to play (did anyone have any doubt?) and I see this being a shootout like the first two games, which had 80 and 51 combined points. Whether or not I get the Cowboys -7, I know I'll be on the over (I already got over 46). PLAY: OVER 46.5.
Bowl postmortem
After a horrendous 0-6 overall start to the bowl season and losing my first two bankroll plays, I'm happy to report my top plays, capped with both Kansas +3 over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl as well as the under in the game, finished the bowl season at 9-5 (7-5 on sides, 2-0 on totals) for a net profit of 3.5 units and the overall ledger evened out at 16-16. Below is the chart I posted way back on Dec. 17 when giving plays on all 32 bowl games. Best bets are in bold.
The sports betting market is fluid it's hard to not only time your bets at the best time, but if you're a public handicapper, it's hard to release them in a moving market, especially when you have a standard deadline like I usually use of Friday morning for my weekend football selections (maybe that's another reason I rarely take favorites with my public plays because the lines typically heads higher on favorites during the course of the week and I'd be laying a lot more bad numbers).
Anyway, this week I've delayed releasing my plays because I've been waiting and hoping to get an extra half-point here or there. However, I don't want to wait until Saturday with the NFL divisional playoffs starting in the afternoon, so I'm posting them Friday night and will note which lines I'm still waiting on.
Here's a quick look at all four games this weekend:
Seahawks (+7.5) over PACKERS (over/under 43.5): This line opened as high as 8.5 at some books and +8 was available around Las Vegas as recently as Thursday, so while I think the Seahawks are the right side, I'm gun shy about releasing that as an official play for anyone who didn't get better than the current +7.5. Besides, the bet I like better in this game is under 43.5 points. The total opened as low as 40 last Sunday night with most books going with 40.5. During the week, with a non-inclement forecast (at least by Green Bay standards), the number has crept up to 43.5. It looks like that's where it will plateau so it's time to buy high. I really like both defenses and I think both teams will be trying to establish the running games. I mentioned first-half betting above, so I'll toss out another suggestion to look at under 21.5 in the first half, but record-keeping purposes I'll just release my top play: UNDER 43.5 points.
Jaguars (+13.5) over PATRIOTS (o/u 50): This is the main line I've been waiting on. It opened Patriots -12 on Sunday and has been steadily climbing. I was hoping to take the Jaguars +14 (and I'm still waiting with my own money) but need to get these plays posted, so I'll live and die with the +13.5. I just think that while the Patriots haven't lost a game, the Jaguars have actually been playing better overall and I like that they mix the run with the pass (not that the Pats should have to apologize for throwing on everyone) and a defense that is physical and can give the Pats everything they can handle. And, even though it's safe to assume that the Patriots will be motivated to continue their perfect season, let's not forget that they were 2-6 against the spread in the second half of the season (1-5 in their last six) and that among the teams that stayed close to them -- besides the excusable Colts and Giants -- were the Eagles, Ravens and Jets. I'll probably pass on the total, though with both being "over" teams all season long, the 50 looks a tad low even with their stellar defenses. Play: JAGUARS +13.5 and hopefully +14.
Chargers (+9.5) over COLTS (o/u 45.5): I'm posting a shorter number because as of this writing the line is mostly Chargers +9.5, but the Wynn has gone to 10 (though you have to lay -115 to get San Diego +10) and it's looking like as more tourists come in town that 10's will be more readily available. The Chargers have turned their season around and they always match up well with the Colts, having beaten them each of the past two seasons. Granted, they had two kick returns for TDs to grab a big lead earlier this season, but the six interceptions of Peyton Manning weren't a fluke as they'll bring pressure and have an athletic secondary to hopefully get a few this game as well. And hopefully they keep feeding
COWBOYS (-7.5) over Giants (o/u 46.5): This line opened as Cowboys -8 at a lot of Vegas books and it's leveled off at 7.5 most of the week, but some pressure appears to be on the Giants side and we could see it dip to 7 by Sunday, at which time I'll probably back the Cowboys. I haven't been sold on the Giants, plus I can't help but think the Cowboys are going to be out to back Tony Romo to show that his trip to Cancun with Jessica Simpson was blown out of proportion. Besides, Terrell Owens is now expected to play (did anyone have any doubt?) and I see this being a shootout like the first two games, which had 80 and 51 combined points. Whether or not I get the Cowboys -7, I know I'll be on the over (I already got over 46). PLAY: OVER 46.5.
Bowl postmortem
After a horrendous 0-6 overall start to the bowl season and losing my first two bankroll plays, I'm happy to report my top plays, capped with both Kansas +3 over Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl as well as the under in the game, finished the bowl season at 9-5 (7-5 on sides, 2-0 on totals) for a net profit of 3.5 units and the overall ledger evened out at 16-16. Below is the chart I posted way back on Dec. 17 when giving plays on all 32 bowl games. Best bets are in bold.
| Date | Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Spread | Selection | Result |
| Dec. 20 | Poinsettia | Utah | Navy | 8 | Utah | Loss |
| Dec. 21 | New Orleans | Fla. Atlantic | Memphis | 3 | Memphis | Loss |
| Dec. 22 | Papajohns.com | Cincinnati | Southern Miss | 10.5 | Cincinnati | Loss |
| New Mexico | New Mexico | Nevada | 3 | Nevada | Loss | |
| Las Vegas | BYU | UCLA | 6 | BYU | Loss | |
| Dec. 23 | Hawaii | Boise St. | E Carolina | 10.5 | Boise St. | Loss |
| Dec. 26 | Motor City | Purdue | C. Michigan | 9 | C. Michigan | Win |
| Dec. 27 | Holiday | Texas | Arizona St. | 2 | Texas | Win |
| Dec. 28 | Champs Sports | Boston Coll. | Michigan St. | 3.5 | Boston Coll. | Loss |
| Texas | TCU | Houston | 3 | Houston | Loss | |
| Emerald | Oregon St. | Maryland | 4.5 | Oregon St. | Win | |
| Dec. 29 | Meineke Car Care | Wake Forest | Connecticut | 3 | Connecticut | Loss |
| Liberty | Miss. St. | Central Florida | 3 | Miss. St. | Win | |
| Alamo | Penn St. | Texas A&M | 6 | Texas A&M | Loss | |
| Dec. 30 | Independence | Alabama | Colorado | 4 | Alabama | Win |
| Dec. 31 | Sun | South Florida | Oregon | 6 | South Florida | Loss |
| Chick-fil-A | Clemson | Auburn | 1.5 | Clemson | Loss | |
| Armed Forces | California | Air Force | 4 | Air Force | Loss | |
| Humanitarian | Georgia Tech | Fresno St. | 4.5 | Fresno St. | Win | |
| Music Bowl | Kentucky | Florida St. | 3 | Kentucky | Win | |
| Insight | Oklahoma St. | Indiana | 4 | Oklahoma St. | Win | |
| Jan. 1 | Outback | Tennessee | Wisconsin | 3 | Tennessee | Win |
| Cotton | Missouri | Arkansas | 3 | Missouri | Win | |
| Gator | Texas Tech | Virginia | 5.5 | Texas Tech | Loss | |
| Capital One | Florida | Michigan | 10.5 | Michigan | Win | |
| Rose | Southern Cal | Illinois | 13.5 | Southern Cal | Win | |
| Sugar | Georgia | Hawaii | 9 | Hawaii | Loss | |
| Jan. 2 | Fiesta | Oklahoma | West Virginia | 7 | Oklahoma | Loss |
| Jan. 3 | Orange | Virginia Tech | Kansas | 3.5 | Kansas | Win |
| Jan. 5 | International | Rutgers | Ball St. | 10 | Rutgers | Win |
| Jan. 6 | GMAC | Tulsa | Bowling Green | 4.5 | Tulsa | Win |
| Jan. 7 | BCS Title | LSU | Ohio St. | 4.5 | LSU | Win |
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