Jan. 20: NFL conference championships
Last week, I went 2-0 on sides as I tabbed the Jaguars +13.5 vs. the Patriots and the Chargers +9.5 over the Colts Z(and was able to get +11 on game day, though that didn't matter as the Chargers won outright). That was the good news, the bad news was I went 0-2 with totals as I took the under in the Seahawks-Packers game and the over in the Giants-Cowboys matchup.
Last Sunday night, the Patriots opened -16 over the Chargers at the Leroy's sports books. I missed that number, but I took the Chargers +15 as reports came in that Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson were expected to be able to play. The number went down to 14 and even some 13.5s were available and I felt like a genius, but then reports came out on Friday that Rivers was listed as doubtful and will be a game-time decision. As of this writing late Friday night, some books are still at 14, but the Station Casinos and the Wynn here in Vegas have gone to 14.5 while the MGM Mirage properties are still at -14 but with added juice at -120. If Rivers is out, the line could go back to 15 or 16, and I think the value remains on the San Diego side. I've long been a fan of Billy Volek from the end of the 2004 season with the Titans when he had back-to-back 400-yard games in relief of Steve McNair. At this point in their careers (and Rivers, despite his obvious talent, also getting a reputation as a hot head), I'd trust Volek more with my money in this spot.
With the Packers sitting as 7-point favorites over the Giants in the NFC Championship Game, I was pretty much on the fence as I really like this Green Bay team with the balance on offense and a solid defense, but since I usually only bet underdogs, I was conflicted and thought I might actually pass the game (or go to the total, which as stated above didn't work out so well last week). I was really thinking the 7-point spread was a solid number and a 50/50 play either way. However, just like the Pats-Chargers line, this one has started drifting upward with every book in town going to at least 7.5 and the Las Vegas Hilton moving it to 8. At 8 or higher, that swings the pendulum enough for me to take the Giants, who are obviously playing with a lot of confidence, especially with nine straight wins on the road.
PLAYS: Chargers +14.5 or higher. Giants +8 or higher.
LEANS: Unders in both games. Title games tend to be lower scoring and the weather could come into play in both New England, where the total is 46, and Green Bay, were the total is 40. But those aren't the only reasons. The Chargers are dinged up, plus I like how their defense is playing and the Patriots haven't been pulling away from foes the second half of the season and I don't see a shootout. In Green Bay, the defenses should also step up and both teams will try to control the clock to keep their defenses warmer on the sidelines.
Last Sunday night, the Patriots opened -16 over the Chargers at the Leroy's sports books. I missed that number, but I took the Chargers +15 as reports came in that Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson were expected to be able to play. The number went down to 14 and even some 13.5s were available and I felt like a genius, but then reports came out on Friday that Rivers was listed as doubtful and will be a game-time decision. As of this writing late Friday night, some books are still at 14, but the Station Casinos and the Wynn here in Vegas have gone to 14.5 while the MGM Mirage properties are still at -14 but with added juice at -120. If Rivers is out, the line could go back to 15 or 16, and I think the value remains on the San Diego side. I've long been a fan of Billy Volek from the end of the 2004 season with the Titans when he had back-to-back 400-yard games in relief of Steve McNair. At this point in their careers (and Rivers, despite his obvious talent, also getting a reputation as a hot head), I'd trust Volek more with my money in this spot.
With the Packers sitting as 7-point favorites over the Giants in the NFC Championship Game, I was pretty much on the fence as I really like this Green Bay team with the balance on offense and a solid defense, but since I usually only bet underdogs, I was conflicted and thought I might actually pass the game (or go to the total, which as stated above didn't work out so well last week). I was really thinking the 7-point spread was a solid number and a 50/50 play either way. However, just like the Pats-Chargers line, this one has started drifting upward with every book in town going to at least 7.5 and the Las Vegas Hilton moving it to 8. At 8 or higher, that swings the pendulum enough for me to take the Giants, who are obviously playing with a lot of confidence, especially with nine straight wins on the road.
PLAYS: Chargers +14.5 or higher. Giants +8 or higher.
LEANS: Unders in both games. Title games tend to be lower scoring and the weather could come into play in both New England, where the total is 46, and Green Bay, were the total is 40. But those aren't the only reasons. The Chargers are dinged up, plus I like how their defense is playing and the Patriots haven't been pulling away from foes the second half of the season and I don't see a shootout. In Green Bay, the defenses should also step up and both teams will try to control the clock to keep their defenses warmer on the sidelines.
good analysis Dave, i got the 14.5 and 7.5 on the dogs, exactly what i was looking for after reading your opinion - see you in Vegas
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