Feb. 29-March 1: Arena Football League & NHC
Back in the one and only XFL season in 2001, the games started out high scoring, not as much as the Arena Football League, but the games dragged on and on. In fact, NBC was broadcasting Saturday night games and they were running so long that it was cutting into Saturday Night Live. Some people would say that's no great loss since the Golden Age of SNL had long past, but the network complained and got the XFL to change some of its clock rules (the clock continued to run after out-of-bounds plays and incomplete passes until the final minutes of each half) to cut down the length of the games. I remember it fondly because I started betting the under in every game and did very well as the oddsmakers were slow to adjust the totals to account for the shortened games. I just wish I had bet more money or tied more games up in parlays.
Anyway, we have a similar situation with this weekend's start of the Arena Football League season as the defenses are going to have a fighting chance as middle linebackers will no longer be restricted to staying within the tackle box and will be able to rush the passer (a special thanks to "gcotton" in the ViewFromVegas Forums for reminding me of this angle that I thought of when first reading of the rule changes...note: I'm doing more of a market analysis way of betting whereas gcotton follows the teams and players better and I'd trust him more with fundamental handicapping of the sides, at least until I watch more of the games). It's not as slam-dunk as that XFL season was, but it should be profitable as oddsmakers don't seem to have adjusted the totals on this opening weekend's games.
I'm going to go with the unders in each game Friday and Saturday (and also took a small parlay on all four games just in case) and see how the games play out; I'm thinking I can't do worse than 2-2. As of this writing at noon Friday, the Stratosphere has the best numbers for under bettors. I'll also post the widely available numbers. But I'm thinking you'll want to bet these sooner rather than later.
Friday
New Orleans-LA UNDER 112 (111 most places, Leroy's just went to 110)
Saturday
Dallas-Georgia UNDER 111.5 (110 most places)
Tampa Bay-Kansas City UNDER 97 (96 most places)
Orlando-Philadelphia UNDER 103 (102 most places)
NHC Tour
The other early best bet of the weekend is to sign up for the NHC Tour if you're a regular or even semi-regular horse handicapping contest player like yours truly. The Tour, which uses the qualifying tourneys for the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship, has a $100,000 top prize for the person who accumulates the most contest points from their five best tournaments and a $2 million bonus if that person goes on to win the NHC next January at the Red Rock Resort in Las Vegas. There is no deadline to enter the Tour at ntra.com/nhc tour but if you sign up by Saturday morning you can play in a freeroll tournament that is only open to Tour members and will award NHC spots to the top three finishers. I wrote about it in the Daily Racing Form. I think it's worth it even if you view Saturday's contest as a $125 entry fee contest and decide to see how you do as to whether or not you'll play more.
Anyway, we have a similar situation with this weekend's start of the Arena Football League season as the defenses are going to have a fighting chance as middle linebackers will no longer be restricted to staying within the tackle box and will be able to rush the passer (a special thanks to "gcotton" in the ViewFromVegas Forums for reminding me of this angle that I thought of when first reading of the rule changes...note: I'm doing more of a market analysis way of betting whereas gcotton follows the teams and players better and I'd trust him more with fundamental handicapping of the sides, at least until I watch more of the games). It's not as slam-dunk as that XFL season was, but it should be profitable as oddsmakers don't seem to have adjusted the totals on this opening weekend's games.
I'm going to go with the unders in each game Friday and Saturday (and also took a small parlay on all four games just in case) and see how the games play out; I'm thinking I can't do worse than 2-2. As of this writing at noon Friday, the Stratosphere has the best numbers for under bettors. I'll also post the widely available numbers. But I'm thinking you'll want to bet these sooner rather than later.
Friday
New Orleans-LA UNDER 112 (111 most places, Leroy's just went to 110)
Saturday
Dallas-Georgia UNDER 111.5 (110 most places)
Tampa Bay-Kansas City UNDER 97 (96 most places)
Orlando-Philadelphia UNDER 103 (102 most places)
NHC Tour
The other early best bet of the weekend is to sign up for the NHC Tour if you're a regular or even semi-regular horse handicapping contest player like yours truly. The Tour, which uses the qualifying tourneys for the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship, has a $100,000 top prize for the person who accumulates the most contest points from their five best tournaments and a $2 million bonus if that person goes on to win the NHC next January at the Red Rock Resort in Las Vegas. There is no deadline to enter the Tour at ntra.com/nhc tour but if you sign up by Saturday morning you can play in a freeroll tournament that is only open to Tour members and will award NHC spots to the top three finishers. I wrote about it in the Daily Racing Form. I think it's worth it even if you view Saturday's contest as a $125 entry fee contest and decide to see how you do as to whether or not you'll play more.
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