March 8: NCAA b-ball, Arena & horses
This is shaping up as a great sports weekend with the "mid-majors" having conference tournament games with tickets to the Big Dance on the line, major conference wrapping up their regular seasons before their tourneys next week (and highlighted by Duke-North Carolina), and a lot of good horse racing across the country with the Louisiana Derby on Saturday being the marquee Kentucky Derby prep race. And there's NBA basketball, Arena Football League, golf, tennis, boxing, hockey, auto racing and even exhibition baseball for fans of those sports or those looking for betting action.
Here's a glance at some of the plays I've made or I'm looking to make this weekend. The college picks don't go until 1 p.m. VFV time, 4 p.m. EST:
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
I'm still trying to cash in the Leroy's College Challenge here in town but probably need at least a 5-2 and more likely a 6-1 week to get back in the money after a disappointing 2-5 mark last week. I'm not listing my seventh selection this week as an official play because I'm taking Cal-Riverside -4.5 vs. UC Davis in their night in the contest but that's mostly just a "game strategy" type play in case I'm in position late to bet back the other side to guarantee a profit on the contest and possibly hit a middle (the line has steamed to 6 and is even 6.5 at a few books as of this posting at 10 a.m. Saturday).
Kansas St. -5 vs. IOWA ST. (not thrilled laying points on road, but better team that needs win)
Mississippi +1 vs. GEORGIA (same as above, except getting a point)
MARSHALL -2 vs. Southern Miss (for whatever reason, Marshall has been good to me as a short home fave)
Richmond +17 vs. XAVIER (Xavier overrated and nothing to play for, Richmond vying for tourney position)
GEORGE WASHINGTON +5.5 vs. UMass (sneaky bad team, Colonels 4-0 ATS as home dog this year)
DUKE -1 vs. North Carolina (Devils shot out lights in first meeting, now at home)
ARENA FOOTBALL
The rule change of allowing the middle linebacker more freedom didn't result in more unders last week as it appeared the offenses were the first to adjust when they saw the middle of the field open up if the MLB roamed too far. I'm certainly not sticking with unders in all games, but will still be looking for spot plays.
Kansas City-New York UNDER 103 (two bad teams, not sure why total over 100)
Orlando-New Orleans UNDER 104.5 (NO QB Bellisari now probable but still like it under)
HORSE RACING
Saturday's Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds (scheduled post time 2:48 p.m. VFV time, 5:48 Eastern) has a bunch of Kentucky Derby hopefuls, including hot-horse Pyro. I'm looking at J Be K as the speed of the speed with a chance to steal it on the lead, though I don't think we'll see his 12-1 morning-line odds by post time (there's also the fact he's also trained by Pyro's trainer Steve Asmussen and I tend to like those "hidden entries" by taking the higher-priced horse). I'm also taking a look at deep-closer Blackberry Road at 10-1 if he gets a fast pace to run at and can avoid trouble.
But the best horse racing stuff I can tout right now is the threads in the ViewFromVegas Forums where a group has been trading plays back and forth during the race cards (mostly Santa Anita, but also touching on other races across the country including even Los Alamitos on Friday night). Most of us have hit a pick 3 or pick 4 the past week with too many winners to count. The forum is much more conducive to giving out horse racing plays, especially with late odds fluctuations and any scratches. Check it out for great picks and great conversation.
Here's a glance at some of the plays I've made or I'm looking to make this weekend. The college picks don't go until 1 p.m. VFV time, 4 p.m. EST:
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
I'm still trying to cash in the Leroy's College Challenge here in town but probably need at least a 5-2 and more likely a 6-1 week to get back in the money after a disappointing 2-5 mark last week. I'm not listing my seventh selection this week as an official play because I'm taking Cal-Riverside -4.5 vs. UC Davis in their night in the contest but that's mostly just a "game strategy" type play in case I'm in position late to bet back the other side to guarantee a profit on the contest and possibly hit a middle (the line has steamed to 6 and is even 6.5 at a few books as of this posting at 10 a.m. Saturday).
Kansas St. -5 vs. IOWA ST. (not thrilled laying points on road, but better team that needs win)
Mississippi +1 vs. GEORGIA (same as above, except getting a point)
MARSHALL -2 vs. Southern Miss (for whatever reason, Marshall has been good to me as a short home fave)
Richmond +17 vs. XAVIER (Xavier overrated and nothing to play for, Richmond vying for tourney position)
GEORGE WASHINGTON +5.5 vs. UMass (sneaky bad team, Colonels 4-0 ATS as home dog this year)
DUKE -1 vs. North Carolina (Devils shot out lights in first meeting, now at home)
ARENA FOOTBALL
The rule change of allowing the middle linebacker more freedom didn't result in more unders last week as it appeared the offenses were the first to adjust when they saw the middle of the field open up if the MLB roamed too far. I'm certainly not sticking with unders in all games, but will still be looking for spot plays.
Kansas City-New York UNDER 103 (two bad teams, not sure why total over 100)
Orlando-New Orleans UNDER 104.5 (NO QB Bellisari now probable but still like it under)
HORSE RACING
Saturday's Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds (scheduled post time 2:48 p.m. VFV time, 5:48 Eastern) has a bunch of Kentucky Derby hopefuls, including hot-horse Pyro. I'm looking at J Be K as the speed of the speed with a chance to steal it on the lead, though I don't think we'll see his 12-1 morning-line odds by post time (there's also the fact he's also trained by Pyro's trainer Steve Asmussen and I tend to like those "hidden entries" by taking the higher-priced horse). I'm also taking a look at deep-closer Blackberry Road at 10-1 if he gets a fast pace to run at and can avoid trouble.
But the best horse racing stuff I can tout right now is the threads in the ViewFromVegas Forums where a group has been trading plays back and forth during the race cards (mostly Santa Anita, but also touching on other races across the country including even Los Alamitos on Friday night). Most of us have hit a pick 3 or pick 4 the past week with too many winners to count. The forum is much more conducive to giving out horse racing plays, especially with late odds fluctuations and any scratches. Check it out for great picks and great conversation.
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