March 15: NCAA and AFL
For basketball (and betting) purists, this past week and the current is just as exciting as the NCAA tournament next week. Next week is do-or-die once the Big Dance starts, but the same holds true for a lot of teams this week that were on the bubble, plus you have teams that are playing to improve their seeds...oh, and there's the pride factor of winning the conference tournament.
I've got a few plays this afternoon and evening. I've been trading money most of the season but I'm hoping it all comes together with the postseason looming:
Arkansas +6.5 vs. Tennessee...the Vols can look great one night, then mediocre...Arkansas needs this game more and I expect them to keep in close (unless Tennessee is having one of those "on" night in which case it could get ugly, but I'm betting against it)
BYU pick-em vs. UNLV...both teams traded blowout wins at home, but even with UNLV playing Mountain West tourney on home court, BYU is bigger and better, plus I'm Rebels have had two battles and I just have the feeling they don't have the depth for three high-level games in three nights
And one more...the winner of the Georgia-Kentucky game that is going on right now will have to come back and play tonight vs. Mississippi St. in an SEC semifinal. Obviously this is a rare occurrence but I think we're going to see an overreaction from oddsmakers and bettors against the team playing twice in the same day, so I'll take the Georgia-Kentucky winner in tonight's game at the best number I can find (and I do think it will steam once it gets posted).
ARENA FOOTBALL
I went 1-1 with unders last week as we've see the new rules haven't had the impact that was expected. Still, I'll go with the under 115 in the Arizona-San Jose game on Saturday night as the Arizona starter might not play.
I've got a few plays this afternoon and evening. I've been trading money most of the season but I'm hoping it all comes together with the postseason looming:
Arkansas +6.5 vs. Tennessee...the Vols can look great one night, then mediocre...Arkansas needs this game more and I expect them to keep in close (unless Tennessee is having one of those "on" night in which case it could get ugly, but I'm betting against it)
BYU pick-em vs. UNLV...both teams traded blowout wins at home, but even with UNLV playing Mountain West tourney on home court, BYU is bigger and better, plus I'm Rebels have had two battles and I just have the feeling they don't have the depth for three high-level games in three nights
And one more...the winner of the Georgia-Kentucky game that is going on right now will have to come back and play tonight vs. Mississippi St. in an SEC semifinal. Obviously this is a rare occurrence but I think we're going to see an overreaction from oddsmakers and bettors against the team playing twice in the same day, so I'll take the Georgia-Kentucky winner in tonight's game at the best number I can find (and I do think it will steam once it gets posted).
ARENA FOOTBALL
I went 1-1 with unders last week as we've see the new rules haven't had the impact that was expected. Still, I'll go with the under 115 in the Arizona-San Jose game on Saturday night as the Arizona starter might not play.
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