April 23-24: Fading zig-zag theory with NBA plays
After starting out 1-3 with my plays on Sunday, I bounced back with a 2-0 mark on Monday and then split two plays in this blog on Tuesday to stand at 4-4 (though I did post a recommended play on Orlando -6 vs. Toronto in the ViewFromVegas Forum on Tuesday, so I'll stick with a 4-5 mark so far in the NBA playoffs).
But it could be worse. Followers of the zig-zag theory, aka the "loser of the last" theory in which bettors are advised to take the team that lost the previous game outright in the very next game, are off to a 1-4 start ATS with the Raptors being the only team to succeed in covering in Game 2 of their respective series so far. Of course, that means there are still three more Game 2's to be played. We'll see how this plays out. For those who are curious: according to ComptrBob, a poster at LVAsports.com whose figures I trust, the zig-zag was 29-33-3 (45.9 percent) last year and 174-166-7 (51.2 percent) over the past 5 years.
Obviously, with oddsmakers having caught up to the once-popular trend and factoring that into the line, it's become a coin-flip situation over the years.
I'm not going to be picking every game, hoping that selectivity leads to a higher winning percentage, but I am landing on three teams over the next two days that won their previous games:
WEDNESDAY
76ers +10 at Pistons
THURSDAY
Cavaliers +5 at Wizards
Magic +? at Raptors (line was unavailable Tuesday night, but it should come low)
But it could be worse. Followers of the zig-zag theory, aka the "loser of the last" theory in which bettors are advised to take the team that lost the previous game outright in the very next game, are off to a 1-4 start ATS with the Raptors being the only team to succeed in covering in Game 2 of their respective series so far. Of course, that means there are still three more Game 2's to be played. We'll see how this plays out. For those who are curious: according to ComptrBob, a poster at LVAsports.com whose figures I trust, the zig-zag was 29-33-3 (45.9 percent) last year and 174-166-7 (51.2 percent) over the past 5 years.
Obviously, with oddsmakers having caught up to the once-popular trend and factoring that into the line, it's become a coin-flip situation over the years.
I'm not going to be picking every game, hoping that selectivity leads to a higher winning percentage, but I am landing on three teams over the next two days that won their previous games:
WEDNESDAY
76ers +10 at Pistons
THURSDAY
Cavaliers +5 at Wizards
Magic +? at Raptors (line was unavailable Tuesday night, but it should come low)
Comments