April 26-28: NBA, MLB and AFL plays
I dropped my last three picks Wednesday and Thursday. So it figures that I was gun-shy and passed on posting plays for Friday's card and went ahead and bet all three underdogs and went 2-1 with the two victories (76ers over Pistons and Spurs over Suns) not only covering easily but winning outright in routs. I wish I could say it always happens that way, but just as often I'm glad to back off of giving out plays when I'm cold. But in this case obviously I wish I had stayed the course.
Hopefully I don't zig when I should be zagging as I'm jumping back in this weekend.
On Saturday, I'm going back with Orlando +3 vs. Toronto. The Magic got ambushed in Game 3 (one of my losing picks on Thursday) but I think they take control of the series in Game 4 and bounce back with a win just like the 76ers did after losing for me Wednesday and then coming back on Friday.
Also on Saturday, I'm taking the LA Lakers +1 at Denver. The Lakers should keep the pressure on (gotta remember coach Phil Jackson is the Zen master and a great motivator) and set up a potential sweep.
On Sunday, I'll come back with the Cavaliers after losing with them Thursday. As you can see, I generally trust my first instincts and if I lose with a team, I don't knee-jerk and jump to the other team. Hopefully my faith is justified as Cleveland is getting +4 and should be motivated after being up 2-0 and then being embarrassed in Game 3.
Baseball
In Saturday's action, I'll take one over and one under.
The over is the Braves-Mets game over 8.5 runs (most books have the under shaded to -120, so most have over 8.5 at even-money). The pitchers are Tim Hudson vs. John Maine, so the first thought would be under, but that's why we're seeing a slightly lower total. Both offenses are certainly capable of putting runs on the board against any pitcher and the Braves have scored 7 and 6 runs in their last two games, and the Mets only scored 3 on Friday night but had the bases loaded multiple times and just didn't capitalize. In addition, the home-plate umpire will be Larry Vanover, who was 23-14 with the over last year, so that should aid the batters as well.
The under the Cubs-Nationals under 9 runs (several books have it at 8.5 with the over shaded to -120 so again you can take even-money if you go under that number). The Cubs have ace Carlos Zambrano on the mound and he should shut down the Nationals, who throw Matt Chico out there. He's pretty bad (0-4 with a 6.04 ERA) but the Cubs' bats have cooled off lately and they won't have to score much here. Again, we have the umpire working in our favor with Jim Wolf, who was 20-12 with the under last season.
Arena Football
To close out the weekend (though I might post again with more NBA and/or MLB plays before then), I'll take under 104.5 in the Dallas-Philadelphia clash in the Arena Football League on Monday night. This should have a playoff-type atmosphere between the league's two undefeated teams, and in most sports in regular-season games like this you have to look to the under (let's hope Arena Football is like other sports, though we know it's not).
Hopefully I don't zig when I should be zagging as I'm jumping back in this weekend.
On Saturday, I'm going back with Orlando +3 vs. Toronto. The Magic got ambushed in Game 3 (one of my losing picks on Thursday) but I think they take control of the series in Game 4 and bounce back with a win just like the 76ers did after losing for me Wednesday and then coming back on Friday.
Also on Saturday, I'm taking the LA Lakers +1 at Denver. The Lakers should keep the pressure on (gotta remember coach Phil Jackson is the Zen master and a great motivator) and set up a potential sweep.
On Sunday, I'll come back with the Cavaliers after losing with them Thursday. As you can see, I generally trust my first instincts and if I lose with a team, I don't knee-jerk and jump to the other team. Hopefully my faith is justified as Cleveland is getting +4 and should be motivated after being up 2-0 and then being embarrassed in Game 3.
Baseball
In Saturday's action, I'll take one over and one under.
The over is the Braves-Mets game over 8.5 runs (most books have the under shaded to -120, so most have over 8.5 at even-money). The pitchers are Tim Hudson vs. John Maine, so the first thought would be under, but that's why we're seeing a slightly lower total. Both offenses are certainly capable of putting runs on the board against any pitcher and the Braves have scored 7 and 6 runs in their last two games, and the Mets only scored 3 on Friday night but had the bases loaded multiple times and just didn't capitalize. In addition, the home-plate umpire will be Larry Vanover, who was 23-14 with the over last year, so that should aid the batters as well.
The under the Cubs-Nationals under 9 runs (several books have it at 8.5 with the over shaded to -120 so again you can take even-money if you go under that number). The Cubs have ace Carlos Zambrano on the mound and he should shut down the Nationals, who throw Matt Chico out there. He's pretty bad (0-4 with a 6.04 ERA) but the Cubs' bats have cooled off lately and they won't have to score much here. Again, we have the umpire working in our favor with Jim Wolf, who was 20-12 with the under last season.
Arena Football
To close out the weekend (though I might post again with more NBA and/or MLB plays before then), I'll take under 104.5 in the Dallas-Philadelphia clash in the Arena Football League on Monday night. This should have a playoff-type atmosphere between the league's two undefeated teams, and in most sports in regular-season games like this you have to look to the under (let's hope Arena Football is like other sports, though we know it's not).
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