April 30-May 1: NBA, NHL plays
It's a great feeling when you're winning, especially when doing it as a public handicapper when you not only get the cash but also the accolades. However, I've written many times about the dangers of getting overconfident. The key is to still stay objective. It's easier said than done, but I've also said that many times the best betting decisions we make are when we decide not to bet.
That was tested Tuesday. I was swamped with Kentucky Derby preparations and another article I was doing for the Daily Racing Form on the National Handicapping Championship and its Tour. But even though I was pressed for time, I really wanted to make some sports bets and post them to "strike while the iron is hot." I went over the basketball, hockey and baseball cards and wasn't blown away by anything. I liked the 76ers to stay within single digits vs. the Pistons and thought the Jazz would close out the Rockets after winning the last three playoff meetings in Houston, and I liked the Suns to stay close to the Spurs. I also liked the NHL's Sharks to bounce back from a 2-0 deficit at the Dallas Stars. I fought the urge throughout the day, but never felt compelled enough to post the plays. I'm sure I would have if I really felt strongly about them, so I decided to pass (which wasn't too hard of a decision as I said I was pretty tied up with other projects).
And I'm glad I had the willpower. The 76ers lost by 16, the Jazz got blown out by 26 and I only would have gotten a push with the Suns as they lost by 5. And the Sharks lost in overtime. It would have been a pretty brutal day, and I would have even felt worse if I had forced the plays just because I felt I was hot or out of some sense of obligation to people who were asking for picks since I had been on a roll. I feel much better about tonight's card as well as a play on Thursday"
NBA
I'll take the Hawks +14 vs. the Celtics. This is the series that has shocked just about everyone (myself included) as it's tied 2-2 with both teams holding serve at home. The Hawks are back in the series with a lot of confidence, and while I don't expect them to win this game or the series, the 14-point spread seems way too high with the Hawks feeling they can play with the Celtics. In addition, Boston has been pretty much expected to run through the Eastern Conference, and you know the NBA and the networks have to be sweating with all the promotional tie-ins with the Celtics. I think they'll be feeling the pressure of all the expectations and this game should come down to the final minutes.
In the other game tonight, I think the Cavaliers will close out their series with the Wizards. They took their best shot (figuratively and literally) and bounced back to win Game 4 and lead the series 3-1. However, I'm not going to lay the 5 points.
On Thursday night, I'll take the Pistons -5 vs. the 76ers. While I think the Hawks will hang with the Celtics, I think the 76ers will be put away by the Pistons despite being at home.
NHL
One of my rare losses lately was the Canadiens vs. the Flyers in Game 3 of their series. However, I still think they're the better team (or maybe it's just a bias vs. the Flyers) and will take the +110 on Wednesday night.
That was tested Tuesday. I was swamped with Kentucky Derby preparations and another article I was doing for the Daily Racing Form on the National Handicapping Championship and its Tour. But even though I was pressed for time, I really wanted to make some sports bets and post them to "strike while the iron is hot." I went over the basketball, hockey and baseball cards and wasn't blown away by anything. I liked the 76ers to stay within single digits vs. the Pistons and thought the Jazz would close out the Rockets after winning the last three playoff meetings in Houston, and I liked the Suns to stay close to the Spurs. I also liked the NHL's Sharks to bounce back from a 2-0 deficit at the Dallas Stars. I fought the urge throughout the day, but never felt compelled enough to post the plays. I'm sure I would have if I really felt strongly about them, so I decided to pass (which wasn't too hard of a decision as I said I was pretty tied up with other projects).
And I'm glad I had the willpower. The 76ers lost by 16, the Jazz got blown out by 26 and I only would have gotten a push with the Suns as they lost by 5. And the Sharks lost in overtime. It would have been a pretty brutal day, and I would have even felt worse if I had forced the plays just because I felt I was hot or out of some sense of obligation to people who were asking for picks since I had been on a roll. I feel much better about tonight's card as well as a play on Thursday"
NBA
I'll take the Hawks +14 vs. the Celtics. This is the series that has shocked just about everyone (myself included) as it's tied 2-2 with both teams holding serve at home. The Hawks are back in the series with a lot of confidence, and while I don't expect them to win this game or the series, the 14-point spread seems way too high with the Hawks feeling they can play with the Celtics. In addition, Boston has been pretty much expected to run through the Eastern Conference, and you know the NBA and the networks have to be sweating with all the promotional tie-ins with the Celtics. I think they'll be feeling the pressure of all the expectations and this game should come down to the final minutes.
In the other game tonight, I think the Cavaliers will close out their series with the Wizards. They took their best shot (figuratively and literally) and bounced back to win Game 4 and lead the series 3-1. However, I'm not going to lay the 5 points.
On Thursday night, I'll take the Pistons -5 vs. the 76ers. While I think the Hawks will hang with the Celtics, I think the 76ers will be put away by the Pistons despite being at home.
NHL
One of my rare losses lately was the Canadiens vs. the Flyers in Game 3 of their series. However, I still think they're the better team (or maybe it's just a bias vs. the Flyers) and will take the +110 on Wednesday night.
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