May 3: Kentucky Derby picks and props, plus an NBA play
It's the First Saturday in May, so that means it's Kentucky Derby Day.
This is the 134th Run For The Roses and it's a very complex handicapping exercise trying to sift through the field of 20 3-year-olds (at an age when they can be very unpredictable, and can improve in a short period of time) going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter for the first time and many of them running a race on regular dirt for the first time (with the emergence of synthetic racing surfaces). Throw in the forecast of rain and we have what many people consider a crapshoot.
And they may be right, but still we try to solve the puzzle because -- in addition to the pride of being able to say you had the Derby winner -- the payoffs are usually very juicy in all pools with the 20-horse field.
My choice to win the Derby (or as I said on several radio shows this week -- my "gun to the head" selection if forced to pick the most likely winner) is COLONEL JOHN. He should get a clean (or as clean as can be expected in a 20-horse field) from the No. 10 post and jockey Corey Nakatani should be able to put him in good position. He has the ability to explode when asked and that's what we look for, especially as it could be tight quarters when turning for home in a crowded field and your horse might only have one chance to make his move. Now, most people who know my horse racing record know that I'm a longshot player, so I'm not going to bet him to win at 4-1 or 5-1 that we're likely to see, but I will have him on top in the most combinations in my exactas, trifectas and supers.
My second choice is PYRO. He was the darling of the preps earlier this spring and I had him atop my rankings at Bodoglife until he finished 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland's synthetic surface. However, I only reluctantly dropped him below Colonel John because all we heard heading into that race was how trainer Steve Asmussen was too concerned about winning the Blue Grass and his main goal was the Derby. So, that race was really just a glorified workout for Pyro and I have no problem throwing it out. He also has the running style that wins Derbys, and could be battling Colonel John for room to make their move.
I have COURT VISION third, and not just because he finished third in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial (actually, I didn't even notice that irony until writing this). He is a deep closer and would benefit from a suicidal speed duel, which I think we could get with Big Brown pretty much having to gun for the lead from the far outside post, and I think the other potential speed horses (Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory and possibly even Gayego and Cool Coal Man) will be forced to go with him as well. Court Vision also has the services of my favorite jockey, Garrett Gomez (who scored with a $44 winner on the Oaks undercard) and he's worth a play at anything around the 14-1 that we saw near the end of Friday's advance wagering.
My longshot play, in addition to Court Vision, is Z FORTUNE. I've been high on this horse all spring, keeping him in my Top 12 despite not winning a race since January. He is a stablemate of Pyro, so he's mostly been flying under the radar and most people dismissed him after he finished 5th in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, but he ran a very strong race in the Arkansas Derby, racing wide but still almost getting to winner Gayego and could win this with a similar improvement. He was 17-1 as of late Friday.
So, again, my top 4 that I've gone record on with many times this week are:
#10 Colonel John
#9 Pyro
#4 Court Vision
#6 Z Fortune
As I've said several times this week, "there aren't a lot of great horses in this year's Derby, but there are a lot of capable horses." An argument can be made for just about every horse, and while there are some I don't like myself, I don't think I'll be shocked if anyone wins it. That being said, while I like the top four and will have the exacta, trifecta and even superfecta several times if they fill out those spots, I'll also be using quite a few horses along with them. With a 20-horse field and with the payoffs being potentially so high if you've able to "connect the dots," it's worth the shot. The others I'll be using most will be Visionaire, Smooth Air, Monba, Gayego and the filly Eight Belles. I'm not too crazy about her chances, but she does get the 5-pound weight break for being a filly taking on the boys, and if she takes to the track like her stablemate Proud Spell did in winning the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, maybe she'll be in the running.
Now, a lot of people will be wondering why I'm not using Big Brown. It's because I believe he's highly overrated and will be overused in all pools. He's 3-for-3 and has won those races by a combined 29 lengths, but who has he beaten? The answer to that is one-time contender Majestic Warrior, Tomcito (neither of which made it to the Derby) and Smooth Air, who is in Saturday's field but was beaten five lengths by Big Brown in the Florida Derby. In my mind, he's taking a big step up in class and his inexperience will come back to haunt him. If he overcomes all those obstacles and wins, I'll tear up my tickets and be the first to applaud him.
Derby Props
Last Sunday night, I posted a Derby prop in my blog: Pyro +210 vs. Big Brown in a head-to-head matchup, meaning it's just on which horse would have the better finish. I hope some people were able to grab it at the Wynn Las Vegas (or elsewhere), and I'm guessing some readers did as it was bet down as low as +140 by midweek. As of today, it's back up to +150 on Pyro, which I still think is a good bet though not as strong as +210. But that's why I chose to post that one early because it seemed too good to be true. Of course, it still has to cash.
In Saturday's Las Vegas Review-Journal, I'm going on record with another prop, also available at the Wynn, that the winner of the race will come from Posts 6-10. The payoff is 7-5 (or +140 for those more used to money lines in sports). The last three Derby winners have come from between posts 6-10, but that's not why I like the bet (though it doesn't hurt). Colonel John (#10) is my top choice, and this wager also includes my second choice Pyro (#9) and my longshot Z Fortune (#6). We also get Big Truck (#7) and Visionaire (#8) for insurance just in case.
Here's some thoughts on some props, none of which I've bet yet but might on Saturday if I get what I think is value:
WILL 134TH KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER WIN THE 133RD PREAKNESS STAKES?
YES +210 (if we go on assumption that the Derby winner will be favored in Preakness, this could be a good bet...though danger is a longshot winning like Giacomo who was still 6-1 in Preakness...or Grindstone who got hurt in winning Derby and didn't run in Preakness)
OFFICIAL WINNING TIME OF THE 134TH KENTUCKY DERBY
UNDER 2:02.20 (if it rains as expected early Saturday, the money could come in on the over and make some value on the under, especially since Churchill track crew will probably seal the track and it could play faster than most people expect)
WINNING SADDLE CLOTH NUMBER OF THE 134TH KENTUCKY DERBY
ODD NUMBER +250 (I do think the even-numbered horses have better chance, but this could be viewed as a "saver" bet)
Oh, there are other sports going on Saturday . . .
I've already bet the Magic +6.5 vs. the Pistons in Game 1 of their series on Saturday night. We saw the Pistons struggle with the 76ers in the first round, and if they don't bring their "A" game the Magic could easily steal one of the first two games in Detroit. I'll start by backing them with the generous plus points.
This is the 134th Run For The Roses and it's a very complex handicapping exercise trying to sift through the field of 20 3-year-olds (at an age when they can be very unpredictable, and can improve in a short period of time) going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter for the first time and many of them running a race on regular dirt for the first time (with the emergence of synthetic racing surfaces). Throw in the forecast of rain and we have what many people consider a crapshoot.
And they may be right, but still we try to solve the puzzle because -- in addition to the pride of being able to say you had the Derby winner -- the payoffs are usually very juicy in all pools with the 20-horse field.
My choice to win the Derby (or as I said on several radio shows this week -- my "gun to the head" selection if forced to pick the most likely winner) is COLONEL JOHN. He should get a clean (or as clean as can be expected in a 20-horse field) from the No. 10 post and jockey Corey Nakatani should be able to put him in good position. He has the ability to explode when asked and that's what we look for, especially as it could be tight quarters when turning for home in a crowded field and your horse might only have one chance to make his move. Now, most people who know my horse racing record know that I'm a longshot player, so I'm not going to bet him to win at 4-1 or 5-1 that we're likely to see, but I will have him on top in the most combinations in my exactas, trifectas and supers.
My second choice is PYRO. He was the darling of the preps earlier this spring and I had him atop my rankings at Bodoglife until he finished 10th in the Blue Grass on Keeneland's synthetic surface. However, I only reluctantly dropped him below Colonel John because all we heard heading into that race was how trainer Steve Asmussen was too concerned about winning the Blue Grass and his main goal was the Derby. So, that race was really just a glorified workout for Pyro and I have no problem throwing it out. He also has the running style that wins Derbys, and could be battling Colonel John for room to make their move.
I have COURT VISION third, and not just because he finished third in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial (actually, I didn't even notice that irony until writing this). He is a deep closer and would benefit from a suicidal speed duel, which I think we could get with Big Brown pretty much having to gun for the lead from the far outside post, and I think the other potential speed horses (Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory and possibly even Gayego and Cool Coal Man) will be forced to go with him as well. Court Vision also has the services of my favorite jockey, Garrett Gomez (who scored with a $44 winner on the Oaks undercard) and he's worth a play at anything around the 14-1 that we saw near the end of Friday's advance wagering.
My longshot play, in addition to Court Vision, is Z FORTUNE. I've been high on this horse all spring, keeping him in my Top 12 despite not winning a race since January. He is a stablemate of Pyro, so he's mostly been flying under the radar and most people dismissed him after he finished 5th in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, but he ran a very strong race in the Arkansas Derby, racing wide but still almost getting to winner Gayego and could win this with a similar improvement. He was 17-1 as of late Friday.
So, again, my top 4 that I've gone record on with many times this week are:
#10 Colonel John
#9 Pyro
#4 Court Vision
#6 Z Fortune
As I've said several times this week, "there aren't a lot of great horses in this year's Derby, but there are a lot of capable horses." An argument can be made for just about every horse, and while there are some I don't like myself, I don't think I'll be shocked if anyone wins it. That being said, while I like the top four and will have the exacta, trifecta and even superfecta several times if they fill out those spots, I'll also be using quite a few horses along with them. With a 20-horse field and with the payoffs being potentially so high if you've able to "connect the dots," it's worth the shot. The others I'll be using most will be Visionaire, Smooth Air, Monba, Gayego and the filly Eight Belles. I'm not too crazy about her chances, but she does get the 5-pound weight break for being a filly taking on the boys, and if she takes to the track like her stablemate Proud Spell did in winning the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, maybe she'll be in the running.
Now, a lot of people will be wondering why I'm not using Big Brown. It's because I believe he's highly overrated and will be overused in all pools. He's 3-for-3 and has won those races by a combined 29 lengths, but who has he beaten? The answer to that is one-time contender Majestic Warrior, Tomcito (neither of which made it to the Derby) and Smooth Air, who is in Saturday's field but was beaten five lengths by Big Brown in the Florida Derby. In my mind, he's taking a big step up in class and his inexperience will come back to haunt him. If he overcomes all those obstacles and wins, I'll tear up my tickets and be the first to applaud him.
Derby Props
Last Sunday night, I posted a Derby prop in my blog: Pyro +210 vs. Big Brown in a head-to-head matchup, meaning it's just on which horse would have the better finish. I hope some people were able to grab it at the Wynn Las Vegas (or elsewhere), and I'm guessing some readers did as it was bet down as low as +140 by midweek. As of today, it's back up to +150 on Pyro, which I still think is a good bet though not as strong as +210. But that's why I chose to post that one early because it seemed too good to be true. Of course, it still has to cash.
In Saturday's Las Vegas Review-Journal, I'm going on record with another prop, also available at the Wynn, that the winner of the race will come from Posts 6-10. The payoff is 7-5 (or +140 for those more used to money lines in sports). The last three Derby winners have come from between posts 6-10, but that's not why I like the bet (though it doesn't hurt). Colonel John (#10) is my top choice, and this wager also includes my second choice Pyro (#9) and my longshot Z Fortune (#6). We also get Big Truck (#7) and Visionaire (#8) for insurance just in case.
Here's some thoughts on some props, none of which I've bet yet but might on Saturday if I get what I think is value:
WILL 134TH KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER WIN THE 133RD PREAKNESS STAKES?
YES +210 (if we go on assumption that the Derby winner will be favored in Preakness, this could be a good bet...though danger is a longshot winning like Giacomo who was still 6-1 in Preakness...or Grindstone who got hurt in winning Derby and didn't run in Preakness)
OFFICIAL WINNING TIME OF THE 134TH KENTUCKY DERBY
UNDER 2:02.20 (if it rains as expected early Saturday, the money could come in on the over and make some value on the under, especially since Churchill track crew will probably seal the track and it could play faster than most people expect)
WINNING SADDLE CLOTH NUMBER OF THE 134TH KENTUCKY DERBY
ODD NUMBER +250 (I do think the even-numbered horses have better chance, but this could be viewed as a "saver" bet)
Oh, there are other sports going on Saturday . . .
I've already bet the Magic +6.5 vs. the Pistons in Game 1 of their series on Saturday night. We saw the Pistons struggle with the 76ers in the first round, and if they don't bring their "A" game the Magic could easily steal one of the first two games in Detroit. I'll start by backing them with the generous plus points.
Comments