May 10-11: NBA, NHL, Arena Football, Horse Racing, and Lacrosse(?)

    My published plays went 0-3 the past few days as the Cleveland Cavaliers (+8.5) got blown out 89-73 by the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Stars (+180) got routed 4-1 by the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night, and then the Los Angeles Lakers (+4 in this blog) lost 104-99 to the Utah Jazz (at least bettors could have gotten the Lakers +5 on Friday, so hopefully most people got a push).
    Most people who are familiar with my selections over the years should know that I'm much more likely to trust my first instincts and come back with the same team (or individual athlete, or horse) than to waffle back and forth. So it shouldn't come as any surprise that I'm firing back with many of the same teams this weekend (and going against Big Brown again in Triple Crown betting):

NHL

    The silver lining of the NHL playoffs is that I didn't jump on the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 1 of their series even though a lot of people (most of whom know more about hockey than yours truly) were touting me on the +200 money-line price.
    From the blog the other day in which I picked the Stars vs. the Red Wings, I'm already on record as recommending a bet on the Stars in Game 2 if they were to lose Game 1 (hoping to at least make a profit if they can split the first two games in Detroit). So I have to take the +190 on Saturday afternoon. The Red Wings got the early momentum in the opener, so I'm hoping the Stars can keep them more in check and play like they did when upsetting San Jose in the last round.

NBA

    Despite losing the first two games of the series handily at Boston, I'm coming back with the Cavaliers as the series moves back to Cleveland. We saw in the Celtics' last series with the Hawks that they don't play as well away from home, so I'm hoping the trend of the NBA home teams bouncing back in Game 3 (see Magic, Spurs and Jazz in this round) continues here. Home teams are 11-0 straight up and 9-1-1 ATS so far this round.
    The Lakers-Jazz line for Sunday's game wasn't available as of this writing, but it should come around Utah -4 or -5 again, so I'll take the Lakers to regain control of the series (again, definitely shop for the best number you can get).

AFL

    The New Orleans-Tampa Bay game went nearly 30 points under the total of 107 as Tampa Bay, wheeling back from a Monday game, squeaked out a 41-37 victory. I don't my two under picks will win by that margin, but I like the Columbus-Kansas City game to go under the total of 101.5 and the Utah-Colorado game to go under 118.

TRIPLE CROWN

    The odds on Big Brown adding the Preakness and Belmont to his Derby win last week have continued to drop. Before the Derby, he was 10-1 to win the Triple Crown. But this past week he's been offered as low as -110 to accomplish the feat. Most books have had him in the +100 to +120 range, but I've been on the lookout to bet against him.
    I would take anything at -120 and lower (I just don't think I'd want to lay more than -140). After taking five weeks between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, he's now going to be asked to come back and win two route races within 5 weeks after the Run for the Roses. And he's had bad feet and we don't know how he's going to handle all this added wear and tear. I might bet the field against him in the Preakness (+260 at the Wynn), but the main obstacle is likely to be the Belmont, the final leg of the Triple Crown and the longest race at 1.5 miles. Casino Drive, a very Vegas-like name, is running in this Saturday's Peter Pan at Belmont and could be the potential upsetter.

LACROSSE, ANYONE?

    The NCAA men's lacrosse tournament starts with eight first-round matches Saturday and Sunday. The Wynn has odds on all eight games as well as futures. Hey, post it and people will bet. Besides, all games will be televised on ESPNU. The championship match is set for Monday, May 26, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Duke is the 2-5 favorite to win the title, followed by defending champion Johns Hopkins at 9-2, Virginia at 5-1, Syracuse (home of who many consider to be the greatest lacrosse player of all time, a certain Jim Brown) at 6-1, North Carolina at 12-1, Maryland at 18-1 and Cornell at 20-1.
    No, I'm not going to make any predictions since I don't know a lacrosse ball from a pelota (that's the ball in jai alai --  hopefully this has at least been educational). Of course, it reminds me of the bookie who at the end of football season was worried about losing his most consistent losing customer. The bettor said he always lost at basketball so he was taking the rest of the year off until football. The bookie, again not wanting to miss out on his steady income stream, asked the bettor if he wanted to try hockey. The losing bettor said, "What the hell do I know about hockey?"
  
 



      

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