May 15-17: NBA, MLB, AFL, Preakness
Posted by Tuley the Tout at 5/15/2008 1:53 PM and is filed under football,Basketball,Baseball,Horse Racing 
People ask me all the time the easiest/quickest way to get my plays, and the clear answer is to check the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. I try to do these "Tuley the Tout" blogs but sometimes I don't have the time with my other projects. When that happens, I definitely try to post them like I did Tuesday night. I went with the four road underdogs in Tuesday and Wednesday night's games, despite the fact that home teams/favorites were 15-1 straightup and 14-2 against the spread, and covered three of the four even though none of them pulled the outright upset.
Part of the reason I took those underdogs was that's what I do. But, in addition, it just seemed like a good time to jump in front of the trend. We see this all the time in sports betting, the market usually corrects itself. Oddsmakers don't like it when teams/trends go on runs like we saw in the first half of this round. Bettors tend to bet the favorites, and to have them covering game after game had to have them looking to adjust to take value away from the chalk bettors. Think about it: with most of the series tightening up, you would think the lines would be going down but they were staying high because bookmakers didn't want to give any value to favorite bettors. So, now, while home teams are 19-1 SU, they're just 15-5 ATS, which is still 75 percent. I'll tread a little lighter.
On Thursday night, we just have one game as the Pistons-Magic series is over. I'll take the Hornets +7 at the Spurs as they try to close out the series instead of having to go home for a Game 7 against the more experienced defending champions. They may or may not get it done, but I think they stay within the number.
On Friday, I'll pass on the early game as the Cavaliers are 3-point favorites over the Celtics. With Boston having such a wide home/road dichotomy, I just can't back them as the dog (but don't feel like laying the short price with the Cavs either). In the second game, I'll take the Lakers +4. The Jazz have had the strongest home court this season, but I also think the Lakers are the best team in the West and will break through by clinching on the road.
MLB
I haven't been posting any baseball plays lately, but the underdogs have been coming in nicely, so I'll toss out some short dogs on Friday's card as we get into some interleague action.
Yankees +120 vs. Mets (they're facing Santana, but I'll take Yankees as home dog almost every time)
Rays +100 vs. Cardinals (break up the Rays!!!, leaders of the AL East)
Dodgers +115 vs. Angels (Dodgers' ninth-inning rally Wednesday night carried over into Thursday win)
Check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums late Friday or early Saturday to see if I find any live underdogs for Saturday.
ARENA FOOTBALL
I've done well with my unders lately. I'm leaning toward the Tampa Bay-Grand Rapids under 112.5 on Friday night, and the Utah-San Jose under 119.5 on Saturday night. Again, I might expand on these in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums.
HORSE RACING
My selections in Saturday's Preakness (as well as Friday's Pimlico Special and the Black-Eyed Susan) and the analysis behind the picks will be available at Bodoglife.com either later Thursday or first thing Friday, but I'll repeat here what I've been posting in the forums for the better part of the past two weeks: I'm looking to bet against Big Brown once again and make him prove he's a superhorse to continue to excel with a relative lack of experience and continue to take on all comers. He also has a history of foot problems, and that could take a toll as he had five weeks off after the Florida Derby and now has to come back two weeks after the Kentucky Derby to run in the Preakness (and if he survives this test, he'll have to come back in three weeks in the Belmont for two races in that same five-week span in which trainer Richard Dutrow only had to get him ready for one).
I can see any number of horses knocking him off in the Preakness. My top pick is Behindatthebar, who won the Grade 2 at Lexington and could have run in the Derby but trainer Todd Pletcher (to his credit) made the right decision for the horse and rested him for this race. Gayego certainly had an excuse with a poor start in the Derby and could revert to his form in the Arkansas Derby that could put him right in the mix. And my longshot play is Icabad Crane, who is the only horse with a win over the Pimlico course. Trainer Graham Motion has also won 5 of the last 7 times he's used jockey Jeremy Rose, who won this race with Afleet Alex three years ago.
Part of the reason I took those underdogs was that's what I do. But, in addition, it just seemed like a good time to jump in front of the trend. We see this all the time in sports betting, the market usually corrects itself. Oddsmakers don't like it when teams/trends go on runs like we saw in the first half of this round. Bettors tend to bet the favorites, and to have them covering game after game had to have them looking to adjust to take value away from the chalk bettors. Think about it: with most of the series tightening up, you would think the lines would be going down but they were staying high because bookmakers didn't want to give any value to favorite bettors. So, now, while home teams are 19-1 SU, they're just 15-5 ATS, which is still 75 percent. I'll tread a little lighter.
On Thursday night, we just have one game as the Pistons-Magic series is over. I'll take the Hornets +7 at the Spurs as they try to close out the series instead of having to go home for a Game 7 against the more experienced defending champions. They may or may not get it done, but I think they stay within the number.
On Friday, I'll pass on the early game as the Cavaliers are 3-point favorites over the Celtics. With Boston having such a wide home/road dichotomy, I just can't back them as the dog (but don't feel like laying the short price with the Cavs either). In the second game, I'll take the Lakers +4. The Jazz have had the strongest home court this season, but I also think the Lakers are the best team in the West and will break through by clinching on the road.
MLB
I haven't been posting any baseball plays lately, but the underdogs have been coming in nicely, so I'll toss out some short dogs on Friday's card as we get into some interleague action.
Yankees +120 vs. Mets (they're facing Santana, but I'll take Yankees as home dog almost every time)
Rays +100 vs. Cardinals (break up the Rays!!!, leaders of the AL East)
Dodgers +115 vs. Angels (Dodgers' ninth-inning rally Wednesday night carried over into Thursday win)
Check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums late Friday or early Saturday to see if I find any live underdogs for Saturday.
ARENA FOOTBALL
I've done well with my unders lately. I'm leaning toward the Tampa Bay-Grand Rapids under 112.5 on Friday night, and the Utah-San Jose under 119.5 on Saturday night. Again, I might expand on these in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums.
HORSE RACING
My selections in Saturday's Preakness (as well as Friday's Pimlico Special and the Black-Eyed Susan) and the analysis behind the picks will be available at Bodoglife.com either later Thursday or first thing Friday, but I'll repeat here what I've been posting in the forums for the better part of the past two weeks: I'm looking to bet against Big Brown once again and make him prove he's a superhorse to continue to excel with a relative lack of experience and continue to take on all comers. He also has a history of foot problems, and that could take a toll as he had five weeks off after the Florida Derby and now has to come back two weeks after the Kentucky Derby to run in the Preakness (and if he survives this test, he'll have to come back in three weeks in the Belmont for two races in that same five-week span in which trainer Richard Dutrow only had to get him ready for one).
I can see any number of horses knocking him off in the Preakness. My top pick is Behindatthebar, who won the Grade 2 at Lexington and could have run in the Derby but trainer Todd Pletcher (to his credit) made the right decision for the horse and rested him for this race. Gayego certainly had an excuse with a poor start in the Derby and could revert to his form in the Arkansas Derby that could put him right in the mix. And my longshot play is Icabad Crane, who is the only horse with a win over the Pimlico course. Trainer Graham Motion has also won 5 of the last 7 times he's used jockey Jeremy Rose, who won this race with Afleet Alex three years ago.
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