Early Turkey Weekend football picks: Nov. 27-29

Happy Thanksgiving to all VFV members, even non-Americans who don't celebrate this holiday. As we get ready to dig into our turkey dinners, here are some picks for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. I'll post the rest of my NFL picks for Sunday on Friday afternoon after the deadline for the Hilton SuperContest in the ViewFromVegas Forums, where you can feel free to ask me about these plays or any other games on the weekend schedule.

I'm trying to bounce back from a subpar record last week in which I went 3-4 in college football and 2-3 in the pros (2-4 if counting the Thursday night non-cover by the Bengals vs. the Steelers).

Let's start with some Turkey Day NFL football:

Lions +11 vs. Titans: I'll jump back on this double-digit underdog. We've seen the Lions keep trying despite their 0-11 record (they are 5-6 against the spread) and they won't want to be embarrassed on national TV. The Titans are in a situation where teams that have started an NFL season 10-0 or better and lost a game have gone 2-5 ATS the following week. We expect them to get the grind out a win. I lean to the UNDER 44.

Seahawks +12.5 vs. Cowboys: Seattle is much improved with Matt Hasselback back at QB. The Cowboys are still inconsistent even though they looked better after falling behind the 49ers early. This is mostly a case of a line being inflated a little too much.

I'll post the rest of my NFL plays on Friday afternoon. Here are my college picks for the weekend:

Mississippi St. +18 vs. Mississippi (Fri.)
UTEP +5.5 vs. East Carolina (Fri.)
Baylor +21.5 vs. Texas Tech (Sat.)
Syracuse +22 vs. Cincinnati (Sat.)

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Posted by Tuley the Tout at 11/27/2008 8:30 AM
Categories: football
 

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  • 11/27/2008 5:06 PM David wrote:
    Hi Dave,

    Please don't take this query as criticism but I was wondering why the majority of your picks tend to be dogs?

    I stumbled across the site today and look forward to reading more. Good luck with the weekend games!

    David.
    Reply to this
    1. 11/28/2008 8:58 PM Tuley the Tout wrote:
      Thanks for writing. No offense taken. Very fair question.
       
      I've always had a lot more success betting underdogs...when I find a favorite that I like, I win a lot less of those, so mostly if I like a fave I'll just pass and look for a better game. However, a bunch of people have told me over the years that when they hear me say (either in print, or online, or on a radio show) that I can' make a case for an underdog, they say they bet the favorite and have done very well. Again, not sure why it doesn't work when I bet those faves LOL
       
      I mostly prefer when I find an underdog that I think can win the game outright, and then the added points are a bonus...obviously it's a different mindset when taking a 14-point dog vs. a 3-point dog.
       
      Anyway, I'm glad you found the site (was it through a Google search or something?)...have you checked out the forums at all??? Here's the link: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/user/discussions.aspx

      Reply to this
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