I had a near perfect day on Thursday (5-0 in MLB and 1-1 in NHL with a +190 winner) and hope to continue it this weekend with two plays apiece in MLB, NHL and the NBA . . .<< MORE >>

After going 3-1 and +2.9 units on Friday with my underdo, I went 3-1 again on Sunday for +2.45 units . . .this blog has 5 baseball plays for Sunday, April 12 . . .<< MORE >>

Monday is a changing of the seasons in a way as the NCAA basketball season comes to a close as North Carolina faces Michigan St. for the national title, while Major League Baseball starts its season with opening days around the country (OK, so the season technically opened Sunday night in Philadelphia, but I'm sticking to the theme here!!!).

North Carolina is favored by 7.5 points at most Las Vegas sports books as of Sunday night with the Leroy's chain of books holding the line at 7. The total ranges from 152 to 153 depending on where you shop. I have no opinion on the total. Most readers of mine know I love underdogs, but I can't see the Spartans staying with the Tar Heels the entire game. However, I do think Michigan St. can stay close early with the help of what could be a pretty good home-court advantage (despite the fact these teams played earlier in the year on this same court and NC romped 98-63), so I think the best play of the night is Michigan St. +4 in the first half.

If you're looking for more help, check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums where you can find the picks of the top 3 handicappers in our spread/total contest as their competition comes down to the final game as well as checking out all the prop bets offered here in Vegas.

If you had been on the site Sunday, you would have seen I gave out the Braves +120 to upset the Phillies in the first game of the baseball season. Here's my picks for some of Monday's games as I think you have to look for the dogs to bark early as the oddsmakers don't always know which teams are going to jell at the start of the season:

Dodgers +120 vs. Padres
Rockies +155 vs. Diamondbacks
Rays +135 vs. Red Sox
A's +135 vs. Angels

We have a bunch of other handicappers looking at baseball every day in the Forums, too, so be sure to check out the other threads, as well as our upcoming coverage of the Masters (the odds are already posted, and we're going to have our very own Mr.OutsideVegas filing a report from Augusta this week).

I also challenge any website to match the amount of winning horse plays given out lately (our members have shared in big-price winners, exactas, trifectas and pick 4s time and time again this past week). ViewFromVegas is the place to be for day-to-day horse racing threads as well as getting everyone ready for the Kentucky Derby. Follow along with our hot handicappers and join in the discussion.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

P.S. Don't forget to tune into our live podcast each Tuesday night at 8 p.m. VFV Time by clicking the link on the ViewFromVegas.com home page or going directly to lvrocks.com. If you can't listen live, you can download the archive anytime after the show ends.

        

This has been a very profitable NCAA tournament for yours truly, Dave Tuley, as my top plays have gone 14-6 (70 percent) against the spread as posted in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. I've also done well in the other tourneys, and before we get to Saturday's Final Four in Detroit, I also have a play in Thursday's NIT championship game at Madison Square Garden in New York;

Thursday:
Baylor-Penn St. UNDER 138 points (I've done well with Big 10 teams with the under in postseason games and see no reason to stop now)

Saturday:
Michigan St.-UConn UNDER 134 (same as above)
Villanova +7.5 vs. North Carolina (Villanova plays better defense than N.C., and the Wildcats have many weapons and catch match the Tar Heels depth-wise...also worth a look on the money line as many books are dealing +300 on the underdog


Are you a poker player? Ever dream of playing in the World Series of Poker? If so, read on . . .

The Bodog poker site is hosting a big WSOP qualifer on Sunday and ViewFromVegas.com has been offered a chance to host a pre-qualifer on Friday, April 3, at 5:05 p.m. VFV Time (for the unitiated, that's Pacific time/8:05 p.m. Eastern/7:05 p.m. Central).

Unlike our last free contest, this one will cost $11 to play ($10 buy-in plus $1 entry fee). The top two finishers will earn a $270 ($250+20) seat into the actual WSOP qualifier on Sunday at 1:35 p.m. VFV Time in which Bodog will award WSOP packages worth more than $12,000 (which includes $10,000 entry fee into the WSOP Main Event at the Rio starting on July 3 plus $2,000 in travel expenses) to the top four finishers. Bodog will also provide updates of its qualifiers on its website throughout the WSOP so family/friends can follow along, and I'll also do that at ViewFromVegas.com if we can get someone in the field.

If you're already a member of Bodog and have the poker software downloaded, you can proceed straight to the SCHEDULED TOURNAMENTS area and look under the PRIVATE tab for the "WSOP ViewFromVegas Pre-Qualifer" tournament and sign up. When you go to pay the $11 (which can be done in tournament credits for regular players at Bodog, it'll ask you for the password, which is tuley.

If you don't have an account, you'll have to register at Bodoglife.com and make a deposit. Some credit cards won't be accepted; I've found the VirtualPin option works just fine. You'll need to look to see what works for you.

Note: I know it's short notice and I tried to pick Friday's starting time to accommodate those back East as well as making it doable for those on the West Coast. If for some reason you can't start playing at that exact time, keep in mind that you can pull a Phil Hellmuth. He is known for showing up late at the start of tournaments. All you need to do is pre-register and when the tourney starts, the software will automatically seat you and just rake the blinds, which start out pretty small. It still might be worth your while to take a shot with such a low entry fee and such a high possible payday.

        

After going 10-4 in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, I went 2-0 with my plays in the Sweet 16 with Villanova and the UConn-Purdue under, but then went 0-2 on Friday with Syracuse and Gonzaga (it wasn't a good night for underdog players as all four favorites covered).

But now we move on to the Elite 8 with two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday. I'll make a suggestion on each game but specify which is my best bet each day:

SATURDAY
UConn-Missouri UNDER 150
Villanova +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh (BEST BET)

SUNDAY
Michigan St. +7 vs. Louisville (BEST BET)
North Carolina-Oklahoma over 160

For my reasoning behind the picks, check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums as well as checking out the plays of the other hot handicappers on the site, or to share your own views and plays. 

Have a great weekend.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

        

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament was a little bit of a roller-coaster ride for yours truly, Dave Tuley, as I went 7-1 against the spread in the Thursday/Friday games with my top selections as published in the Daily Racing Form as well as in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. I then continued the hot streak with a 3-0 record on Saturday, but followed that with an 0-3 mark on Sunday. It was a bummer to end the weekend on that note, but I'll take a 10-4 record anytime. My top four selections for Thursday and Friday's Sweet 16 games are inside . . .<< MORE >>

After going 7-1 in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, I try to keep the momentum going this weekend . . .<< MORE >>

Super Bowl Sunday is here. I've had requests to post my plays in this blog in addition to my multiple posts in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. Go there to see some of the discussion myself and other VFV members have been having leading up to the big game. In addition, if you're online later today during the game, check out the OFFICIAL ViewFromVegas in-game thread that I will be hosting at the top of the forums as I'll discuss the many proposition wagers as they're decided during the course of the game, as well as comments on the game in general.

So, here's my prediction as it appeared  in Saturday's print editions of Daily Racing Form, followed by my recommendations on some of the countless prop bets available. Good luck, everyone.


Cardinals +7 (-120) vs. Steelers

Regular readers of this column may recall that I've been on the Cardinals in all three of their playoff wins, so it should come as no surprise that I'm on them one last time.

But it's not just out of a sense of loyalty but because there's still value in the line. I'm thoroughly convinced this line shouldn't be more than a field goal, and that pick-em might be the fairest line because either team can win.

For most of the past two weeks, this line has sat at the Steelers -7, though earlier this week we started to see some books go to 6 1/2. As much as I like the Cardinals (and I also suggest a wager on them to win the game outright at odds of 2-1 or better), I strongly recommend people take them +7 instead of +6 1/2, even if you have to lay -120 (risking $1.20 for every $1 you want to win) instead of the standard -110.

As Rood alluded to above, the matchup everyone is looking at is the Cardinals' high-flying offense against the Steelers' No. 1-ranked defense. Warner spreads the ball around to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. And while the passing attack has been the focus of the offense as well as opposing defenses, the Cardinals have found a running attack in the postseason with a rejuvenated Edgerrin James.

The Steelers are stout against the run, but if they bring in extra defensive backs to combat the pass, the Cardinals have shown they are capable of picking up big chunks of yards on the ground. This is a more balanced offense than was seen during the regular season.

The Cardinals' defense is also much improved. Its best performance was standing up to the Panthers' running game in the divisional playoffs, and they can do the same here. The key has been the play of the Arizona defensive backs, who have clamped down on opposing receivers, allowing safety Adrian Wilson to come up to support against the run like almost another linebacker.

The Cardinals' pass rush has been relentless, and the Steelers' protection of QB Ben Roethlisberger has been spotty all year. I think this is where the game will be won or lost. As we saw versus the Ravens, Roethlisberger was under pressure but was able to escape and make plays outside the pocket - which he has done his whole career. He's adept at stepping away from the rush and being able to throw on the move. If the Cardinals can wrap him up when they have him dead to rights, they'll probably win. If Big Ben escapes, he'll be able to make big plays downfield.

These teams didn't face each other this season, but they did meet in 2007 with a lesser Arizona team beating an undefeated Pittsburgh team 21-14. At the time, Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt, the former Steelers offensive coordinator who was passed over for the head coaching job that went to Mike Tomlin, said he took pride in beating his former team. In that game, the Cardinals sacked Roethlisberger four times, intercepted him twice (you think Whisenhunt knows how to game plan vs. his former pupil?) and Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 120 yards. I see no reason they can't duplicate that performance.

All this being said, it is just one game, even if it is the Super Bowl, so wager within your budget.

The play: Cardinals for 1 unit.

NFC/AFC title games: 1-1 for net loss of 0.1 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 31-19-2 (62 percent), including 3-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 10.9 units.

 
Cardinals -10.5 +800 (just for a small amount, but would be icing on the cake if they can get the blowout)
Steelers-Cardinals under 41.5 +175 (closer to the truer total, plus better than 8-5)
Kurt Warner first rushing attempt over 0.5 +400 (I think he'll run...whether he gets away from the rush is another matter)
Cardinals to score first +125
First score of game (any other score than TD) +165...I'm thinking Arizona field goal (which is available at 7-2)
Cardinals to score last in first half +120
Will there be a special teams or defensive TD...yes +155 (could be either team)
Game to be tied after 0-0...yes +115
Players to have a pass attempt over 2.5 +190 (either QB could be knocked out, halfback pass, fake punt or FG)
Mewelde Moore under 14.5 rushing yards -110 (Parker to get bulk of work)
Hines Ward under 65.5 yards receiving -110 (especially if he's less than 100%)
Nate Washington to have a rushing attempt +210 (Steelers bound to try some trickaration)
Steelers to have a rushing attempt over 4.5 +150 (kinda ties in with above)
Steelers under 27 points -110 (meshes with my Cards/under wagers)
Will Steelers score in 1st AND 2nd quarters...no +145 (Cards' defense still underrated)
Kurt Warner longest completion over 39.5 -110 (looks off safeties well, will go deep often)
Kurt Warner to throw a TD pass in 3rd quarter +210 (more likely if Cards win toss and defer to 2nd half)
Edgerrin James longest rush...over 8.5 yards -120
Steve Breaston over 39.5 receiving yards (REALLY like this one, 1006 yards this season, Warner likes him...Pitt can't cover everyone)
Total number of Cardinals to score...over 3 -120 (Rackers plus 2 other guarantees push)
Rushing yards by Cardinals...over 68.5 -110 (especially if they grab lead)
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger to throw first TD pass +105
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kurt Warner to throw first interception +175
Steve Breaston vs. Nate Washington most receiving yards -4.5 -110
Hines Ward vs. Larry Fitzgerald to get first reception +165 (shaded too high on assumption Cards get the ball first)
Santonio Holmes vs. Anquan Boldin to get first reception +160 (ditto)
Cards first-half points +17.5 vs. Steelers full-game points -110 (like this better than Cards -7 full-game vs. Steelers' 1st half)
Jersey number of 1st player to score TD...over 38.5 -110 (in addition to QBs, most RBs, also get Fitzgerald and Holmes)
Lebron James points+assists vs. Steelers-Cardinals points +12.5 -110 (meshes with under bet, Lebron to go off)
Edgerrin James to score 1st TD 20-1 (also tempted Warner 20-1 and Roethlisberger 25-1)
First scoring play is Cardinals field goal 7-2
Last scoring play is Cardinals field goal 5-1 (especially if they're ahead)
Double result...tie at halftime/Steelers win 8-1 (not as juicy as year's past)
Double result...tie at halftime/Cardinal win 15-1 (but I can still see tie at halftime to guarantee profit)
Double result...Cardinals score first and win 5-1 (if they score first, ML now pays 5-1)

        

Here are the comments I posted in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums for this upcoming weekend's NFL divisional playoffs. Tune into our podcast on Tuesday at 8 p.m. VFV Time (aka Pacific Standard Time) by accessing the ViewFromVegas.com home page or ask me about the games in the Forums.

AFC

The lines for next weekend's AFC divisional round were put up as the Ravens were wrapping up their 27-9 win over the Dolphins.

The Titans opened -3 vs. the Ravens with a total of 34 with a 30 percent of rain or snow expected. Palms shaded it with -120 on the Ravens +3. Looks like it's more likely to come down as opposed to move up (though it'll take a LOT of money to get books to move off 3 to 2.5). Leroy's has the total at 35 and some books shading to the over 34.

Books were split on line for the Steelers with Leroy's, Stations and Caesars making it Steelers -6 and the Hilton, Palms, MGM Mirage, Venetian and Golden Nugget at 6.5. The consensus total was 39.5 with the Hilton at 39 and Leroy's at 40 with every other book at 39.5. Again, my recommedations for those betting early:

Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup) bet these sooner rather than later:

Ravens +3 -110 vs. Titans...over 34
Steelers -6 vs. Chargers...grab under 40 if you can get it...I'll likely bet the over later in the week if it comes down further (30 percent chance of snow with temps in 10s or 20s)

NFC

After the Eagles defeated the Vikings on Sunday, the lines were posted for this upcoming weekend's NFC divisional playoffs.

The Giants opened -4.5 vs. the Eagles in Saturday night's game with a total of 40 at the Las Vegas Hilton. The spread got bet down to 4 and then back up to 4.5 while the total raised to 41. The Venetian opened at 4 and Stations and the Palms put up 5 (just like Pinny offshore) with the MGM Mirage making it 5.5, which was quickly bet down. The side hasn't settled even by early Tuesday morning. The Hilton, Venetian and Golden Nugget are at Giants -4 with most books at 4.5 and the Palms now at 5. The total ranges from 39.5 at the Hilton with Caesars, Stations and Palms at 40.5.

The Panthers opened -10 vs. the Cardinals with a total of 46.5 at the Hilton. That total was much lower than Stations, which put up 49. The Hilton quickly went to 48 and then 48.5. The side was more stable with Leroy's and Venetian putting up 9.5. The spread has pretty much settled at 10, though the Venetian has it at 9.5 and the Stratosphere has it at 10.5 but with with -120 on the +10.5. The total is a solid 48 though the Hilton has it at 48.5 as of this writing.

Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup), here's what I like. I'll add my analysis later in the week:

Cardinals +10 vs. Panthers...under 48 (48.5 if you can get it)
Giants -4 vs. Eagles...over 40 (again, 39.5 if you can get it)

        

These are my picks for the NFL wild-card games this weekend, plus a reminder to get in a free NFL pointspread/totals contest in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums . . .<< MORE >>