Tuley the Tout
Tuley the Tout
Tuley goes 7-1 in opening round; second-round picks
After going 7-1 in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, I try to keep the momentum going this weekend . . .<< MORE >>
Tuley the Tout: Super Bowl picks and props
Super Bowl Sunday is here. I've had requests to post my plays in this blog in addition to my multiple posts in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. Go there to see some of the discussion myself and other VFV members have been having leading up to the big game. In addition, if you're online later today during the game, check out the OFFICIAL ViewFromVegas in-game thread that I will be hosting at the top of the forums as I'll discuss the many proposition wagers as they're decided during the course of the game, as well as comments on the game in general.
So, here's my prediction as it appeared in Saturday's print editions of Daily Racing Form, followed by my recommendations on some of the countless prop bets available. Good luck, everyone.
Cardinals +7 (-120) vs. Steelers
Regular readers of this column may recall that I've been on the Cardinals in all three of their playoff wins, so it should come as no surprise that I'm on them one last time.
But it's not just out of a sense of loyalty but because there's still value in the line. I'm thoroughly convinced this line shouldn't be more than a field goal, and that pick-em might be the fairest line because either team can win.
For most of the past two weeks, this line has sat at the Steelers -7, though earlier this week we started to see some books go to 6 1/2. As much as I like the Cardinals (and I also suggest a wager on them to win the game outright at odds of 2-1 or better), I strongly recommend people take them +7 instead of +6 1/2, even if you have to lay -120 (risking $1.20 for every $1 you want to win) instead of the standard -110.
As Rood alluded to above, the matchup everyone is looking at is the Cardinals' high-flying offense against the Steelers' No. 1-ranked defense. Warner spreads the ball around to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. And while the passing attack has been the focus of the offense as well as opposing defenses, the Cardinals have found a running attack in the postseason with a rejuvenated Edgerrin James.
The Steelers are stout against the run, but if they bring in extra defensive backs to combat the pass, the Cardinals have shown they are capable of picking up big chunks of yards on the ground. This is a more balanced offense than was seen during the regular season.
The Cardinals' defense is also much improved. Its best performance was standing up to the Panthers' running game in the divisional playoffs, and they can do the same here. The key has been the play of the Arizona defensive backs, who have clamped down on opposing receivers, allowing safety Adrian Wilson to come up to support against the run like almost another linebacker.
The Cardinals' pass rush has been relentless, and the Steelers' protection of QB Ben Roethlisberger has been spotty all year. I think this is where the game will be won or lost. As we saw versus the Ravens, Roethlisberger was under pressure but was able to escape and make plays outside the pocket - which he has done his whole career. He's adept at stepping away from the rush and being able to throw on the move. If the Cardinals can wrap him up when they have him dead to rights, they'll probably win. If Big Ben escapes, he'll be able to make big plays downfield.
These teams didn't face each other this season, but they did meet in 2007 with a lesser Arizona team beating an undefeated Pittsburgh team 21-14. At the time, Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt, the former Steelers offensive coordinator who was passed over for the head coaching job that went to Mike Tomlin, said he took pride in beating his former team. In that game, the Cardinals sacked Roethlisberger four times, intercepted him twice (you think Whisenhunt knows how to game plan vs. his former pupil?) and Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 120 yards. I see no reason they can't duplicate that performance.
All this being said, it is just one game, even if it is the Super Bowl, so wager within your budget.
The play: Cardinals for 1 unit.
NFC/AFC title games: 1-1 for net loss of 0.1 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 31-19-2 (62 percent), including 3-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 10.9 units.
Cardinals -10.5 +800 (just for a small amount, but would be icing on the cake if they can get the blowout)
Steelers-Cardinals under 41.5 +175 (closer to the truer total, plus better than 8-5)
Kurt Warner first rushing attempt over 0.5 +400 (I think he'll run...whether he gets away from the rush is another matter)
Cardinals to score first +125
First score of game (any other score than TD) +165...I'm thinking Arizona field goal (which is available at 7-2)
Cardinals to score last in first half +120
Will there be a special teams or defensive TD...yes +155 (could be either team)
Game to be tied after 0-0...yes +115
Players to have a pass attempt over 2.5 +190 (either QB could be knocked out, halfback pass, fake punt or FG)
Mewelde Moore under 14.5 rushing yards -110 (Parker to get bulk of work)
Hines Ward under 65.5 yards receiving -110 (especially if he's less than 100%)
Nate Washington to have a rushing attempt +210 (Steelers bound to try some trickaration)
Steelers to have a rushing attempt over 4.5 +150 (kinda ties in with above)
Steelers under 27 points -110 (meshes with my Cards/under wagers)
Will Steelers score in 1st AND 2nd quarters...no +145 (Cards' defense still underrated)
Kurt Warner longest completion over 39.5 -110 (looks off safeties well, will go deep often)
Kurt Warner to throw a TD pass in 3rd quarter +210 (more likely if Cards win toss and defer to 2nd half)
Edgerrin James longest rush...over 8.5 yards -120
Steve Breaston over 39.5 receiving yards (REALLY like this one, 1006 yards this season, Warner likes him...Pitt can't cover everyone)
Total number of Cardinals to score...over 3 -120 (Rackers plus 2 other guarantees push)
Rushing yards by Cardinals...over 68.5 -110 (especially if they grab lead)
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger to throw first TD pass +105
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kurt Warner to throw first interception +175
Steve Breaston vs. Nate Washington most receiving yards -4.5 -110
Hines Ward vs. Larry Fitzgerald to get first reception +165 (shaded too high on assumption Cards get the ball first)
Santonio Holmes vs. Anquan Boldin to get first reception +160 (ditto)
Cards first-half points +17.5 vs. Steelers full-game points -110 (like this better than Cards -7 full-game vs. Steelers' 1st half)
Jersey number of 1st player to score TD...over 38.5 -110 (in addition to QBs, most RBs, also get Fitzgerald and Holmes)
Lebron James points+assists vs. Steelers-Cardinals points +12.5 -110 (meshes with under bet, Lebron to go off)
Edgerrin James to score 1st TD 20-1 (also tempted Warner 20-1 and Roethlisberger 25-1)
First scoring play is Cardinals field goal 7-2
Last scoring play is Cardinals field goal 5-1 (especially if they're ahead)
Double result...tie at halftime/Steelers win 8-1 (not as juicy as year's past)
Double result...tie at halftime/Cardinal win 15-1 (but I can still see tie at halftime to guarantee profit)
Double result...Cardinals score first and win 5-1 (if they score first, ML now pays 5-1)
So, here's my prediction as it appeared in Saturday's print editions of Daily Racing Form, followed by my recommendations on some of the countless prop bets available. Good luck, everyone.
Cardinals +7 (-120) vs. Steelers
Regular readers of this column may recall that I've been on the Cardinals in all three of their playoff wins, so it should come as no surprise that I'm on them one last time.
But it's not just out of a sense of loyalty but because there's still value in the line. I'm thoroughly convinced this line shouldn't be more than a field goal, and that pick-em might be the fairest line because either team can win.
For most of the past two weeks, this line has sat at the Steelers -7, though earlier this week we started to see some books go to 6 1/2. As much as I like the Cardinals (and I also suggest a wager on them to win the game outright at odds of 2-1 or better), I strongly recommend people take them +7 instead of +6 1/2, even if you have to lay -120 (risking $1.20 for every $1 you want to win) instead of the standard -110.
As Rood alluded to above, the matchup everyone is looking at is the Cardinals' high-flying offense against the Steelers' No. 1-ranked defense. Warner spreads the ball around to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. And while the passing attack has been the focus of the offense as well as opposing defenses, the Cardinals have found a running attack in the postseason with a rejuvenated Edgerrin James.
The Steelers are stout against the run, but if they bring in extra defensive backs to combat the pass, the Cardinals have shown they are capable of picking up big chunks of yards on the ground. This is a more balanced offense than was seen during the regular season.
The Cardinals' defense is also much improved. Its best performance was standing up to the Panthers' running game in the divisional playoffs, and they can do the same here. The key has been the play of the Arizona defensive backs, who have clamped down on opposing receivers, allowing safety Adrian Wilson to come up to support against the run like almost another linebacker.
The Cardinals' pass rush has been relentless, and the Steelers' protection of QB Ben Roethlisberger has been spotty all year. I think this is where the game will be won or lost. As we saw versus the Ravens, Roethlisberger was under pressure but was able to escape and make plays outside the pocket - which he has done his whole career. He's adept at stepping away from the rush and being able to throw on the move. If the Cardinals can wrap him up when they have him dead to rights, they'll probably win. If Big Ben escapes, he'll be able to make big plays downfield.
These teams didn't face each other this season, but they did meet in 2007 with a lesser Arizona team beating an undefeated Pittsburgh team 21-14. At the time, Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt, the former Steelers offensive coordinator who was passed over for the head coaching job that went to Mike Tomlin, said he took pride in beating his former team. In that game, the Cardinals sacked Roethlisberger four times, intercepted him twice (you think Whisenhunt knows how to game plan vs. his former pupil?) and Fitzgerald caught 10 passes for 120 yards. I see no reason they can't duplicate that performance.
All this being said, it is just one game, even if it is the Super Bowl, so wager within your budget.
The play: Cardinals for 1 unit.
NFC/AFC title games: 1-1 for net loss of 0.1 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 31-19-2 (62 percent), including 3-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 10.9 units.
Cardinals -10.5 +800 (just for a small amount, but would be icing on the cake if they can get the blowout)
Steelers-Cardinals under 41.5 +175 (closer to the truer total, plus better than 8-5)
Kurt Warner first rushing attempt over 0.5 +400 (I think he'll run...whether he gets away from the rush is another matter)
Cardinals to score first +125
First score of game (any other score than TD) +165...I'm thinking Arizona field goal (which is available at 7-2)
Cardinals to score last in first half +120
Will there be a special teams or defensive TD...yes +155 (could be either team)
Game to be tied after 0-0...yes +115
Players to have a pass attempt over 2.5 +190 (either QB could be knocked out, halfback pass, fake punt or FG)
Mewelde Moore under 14.5 rushing yards -110 (Parker to get bulk of work)
Hines Ward under 65.5 yards receiving -110 (especially if he's less than 100%)
Nate Washington to have a rushing attempt +210 (Steelers bound to try some trickaration)
Steelers to have a rushing attempt over 4.5 +150 (kinda ties in with above)
Steelers under 27 points -110 (meshes with my Cards/under wagers)
Will Steelers score in 1st AND 2nd quarters...no +145 (Cards' defense still underrated)
Kurt Warner longest completion over 39.5 -110 (looks off safeties well, will go deep often)
Kurt Warner to throw a TD pass in 3rd quarter +210 (more likely if Cards win toss and defer to 2nd half)
Edgerrin James longest rush...over 8.5 yards -120
Steve Breaston over 39.5 receiving yards (REALLY like this one, 1006 yards this season, Warner likes him...Pitt can't cover everyone)
Total number of Cardinals to score...over 3 -120 (Rackers plus 2 other guarantees push)
Rushing yards by Cardinals...over 68.5 -110 (especially if they grab lead)
Kurt Warner vs. Ben Roethlisberger to throw first TD pass +105
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Kurt Warner to throw first interception +175
Steve Breaston vs. Nate Washington most receiving yards -4.5 -110
Hines Ward vs. Larry Fitzgerald to get first reception +165 (shaded too high on assumption Cards get the ball first)
Santonio Holmes vs. Anquan Boldin to get first reception +160 (ditto)
Cards first-half points +17.5 vs. Steelers full-game points -110 (like this better than Cards -7 full-game vs. Steelers' 1st half)
Jersey number of 1st player to score TD...over 38.5 -110 (in addition to QBs, most RBs, also get Fitzgerald and Holmes)
Lebron James points+assists vs. Steelers-Cardinals points +12.5 -110 (meshes with under bet, Lebron to go off)
Edgerrin James to score 1st TD 20-1 (also tempted Warner 20-1 and Roethlisberger 25-1)
First scoring play is Cardinals field goal 7-2
Last scoring play is Cardinals field goal 5-1 (especially if they're ahead)
Double result...tie at halftime/Steelers win 8-1 (not as juicy as year's past)
Double result...tie at halftime/Cardinal win 15-1 (but I can still see tie at halftime to guarantee profit)
Double result...Cardinals score first and win 5-1 (if they score first, ML now pays 5-1)
NFL divisional playoff picks (Jan. 10-11, 2009)
Here are the comments I posted in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums for this upcoming weekend's NFL divisional playoffs. Tune into our podcast on Tuesday at 8 p.m. VFV Time (aka Pacific Standard Time) by accessing the ViewFromVegas.com home page or ask me about the games in the Forums.
AFC
The lines for next weekend's AFC divisional round were put up as the Ravens were wrapping up their 27-9 win over the Dolphins.
The Titans opened -3 vs. the Ravens with a total of 34 with a 30 percent of rain or snow expected. Palms shaded it with -120 on the Ravens +3. Looks like it's more likely to come down as opposed to move up (though it'll take a LOT of money to get books to move off 3 to 2.5). Leroy's has the total at 35 and some books shading to the over 34.
Books were split on line for the Steelers with Leroy's, Stations and Caesars making it Steelers -6 and the Hilton, Palms, MGM Mirage, Venetian and Golden Nugget at 6.5. The consensus total was 39.5 with the Hilton at 39 and Leroy's at 40 with every other book at 39.5. Again, my recommedations for those betting early:
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup) bet these sooner rather than later:
Ravens +3 -110 vs. Titans...over 34
Steelers -6 vs. Chargers...grab under 40 if you can get it...I'll likely bet the over later in the week if it comes down further (30 percent chance of snow with temps in 10s or 20s)
NFC
After the Eagles defeated the Vikings on Sunday, the lines were posted for this upcoming weekend's NFC divisional playoffs.
The Giants opened -4.5 vs. the Eagles in Saturday night's game with a total of 40 at the Las Vegas Hilton. The spread got bet down to 4 and then back up to 4.5 while the total raised to 41. The Venetian opened at 4 and Stations and the Palms put up 5 (just like Pinny offshore) with the MGM Mirage making it 5.5, which was quickly bet down. The side hasn't settled even by early Tuesday morning. The Hilton, Venetian and Golden Nugget are at Giants -4 with most books at 4.5 and the Palms now at 5. The total ranges from 39.5 at the Hilton with Caesars, Stations and Palms at 40.5.
The Panthers opened -10 vs. the Cardinals with a total of 46.5 at the Hilton. That total was much lower than Stations, which put up 49. The Hilton quickly went to 48 and then 48.5. The side was more stable with Leroy's and Venetian putting up 9.5. The spread has pretty much settled at 10, though the Venetian has it at 9.5 and the Stratosphere has it at 10.5 but with with -120 on the +10.5. The total is a solid 48 though the Hilton has it at 48.5 as of this writing.
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup), here's what I like. I'll add my analysis later in the week:
Cardinals +10 vs. Panthers...under 48 (48.5 if you can get it)
Giants -4 vs. Eagles...over 40 (again, 39.5 if you can get it)
AFC
The lines for next weekend's AFC divisional round were put up as the Ravens were wrapping up their 27-9 win over the Dolphins.
The Titans opened -3 vs. the Ravens with a total of 34 with a 30 percent of rain or snow expected. Palms shaded it with -120 on the Ravens +3. Looks like it's more likely to come down as opposed to move up (though it'll take a LOT of money to get books to move off 3 to 2.5). Leroy's has the total at 35 and some books shading to the over 34.
Books were split on line for the Steelers with Leroy's, Stations and Caesars making it Steelers -6 and the Hilton, Palms, MGM Mirage, Venetian and Golden Nugget at 6.5. The consensus total was 39.5 with the Hilton at 39 and Leroy's at 40 with every other book at 39.5. Again, my recommedations for those betting early:
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup) bet these sooner rather than later:
Ravens +3 -110 vs. Titans...over 34
Steelers -6 vs. Chargers...grab under 40 if you can get it...I'll likely bet the over later in the week if it comes down further (30 percent chance of snow with temps in 10s or 20s)
NFC
After the Eagles defeated the Vikings on Sunday, the lines were posted for this upcoming weekend's NFC divisional playoffs.
The Giants opened -4.5 vs. the Eagles in Saturday night's game with a total of 40 at the Las Vegas Hilton. The spread got bet down to 4 and then back up to 4.5 while the total raised to 41. The Venetian opened at 4 and Stations and the Palms put up 5 (just like Pinny offshore) with the MGM Mirage making it 5.5, which was quickly bet down. The side hasn't settled even by early Tuesday morning. The Hilton, Venetian and Golden Nugget are at Giants -4 with most books at 4.5 and the Palms now at 5. The total ranges from 39.5 at the Hilton with Caesars, Stations and Palms at 40.5.
The Panthers opened -10 vs. the Cardinals with a total of 46.5 at the Hilton. That total was much lower than Stations, which put up 49. The Hilton quickly went to 48 and then 48.5. The side was more stable with Leroy's and Venetian putting up 9.5. The spread has pretty much settled at 10, though the Venetian has it at 9.5 and the Stratosphere has it at 10.5 but with with -120 on the +10.5. The total is a solid 48 though the Hilton has it at 48.5 as of this writing.
Based on the market (and my own thoughts on the matchup), here's what I like. I'll add my analysis later in the week:
Cardinals +10 vs. Panthers...under 48 (48.5 if you can get it)
Giants -4 vs. Eagles...over 40 (again, 39.5 if you can get it)
NFL wild-card picks (Jan. 3-4, 2009)
These are my picks for the NFL wild-card games this weekend, plus a reminder to get in a free NFL pointspread/totals contest in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums . . .<< MORE >>
Bowl picks through Dec. 30, media appearances, etc.
This entry includes my bowl selections through Tuesday, Dec. 30, plus an update of my status in two NFL handicapping contests in Las Vegas and some upcoming radio/podcast appearances . . .<< MORE >>
Football picks (college bowls and NFL) for Dec. 20 through 23
This blog has college bowl picks from Saturday, Dec. 20, through Tuesday, Dec. 23, to coincide with the pointspread/totals contest at ViewFromVegas.com along with Week 16 NFL picks for Sunday, Dec. 21 . . .<< MORE >>
NFL picks for Sunday, Dec. 14 (bowl contest announcements)
NOTE TO THOSE WHO JUST GET THIS E-MAIL BLAST BUT DON'T FREQUENT THE VIEWFROMVEGAS.COM FORUMS: ViewFromVegas.com is holding two free college bowl contests. The first that can be entered right away is the ESPN Bowl Mania...our group is "View From Vegas" and the password is "tuley" and it's only open to people who receive these Tuley the Tout blogs or are members of the VFV Forums. That's a straight-up contest with no point spreads. The second contest will be hosted in the VFV Forums and involve point spreads and totals on each game. Prizes for the top two winners of each will include dinner for two with yours truly, show tickets for two, a poker set, etc. (champ gets first choice; runner-up gets second choice). If someone wins both contests, they'll receive a ticket to the Final Four in Detroit in April as my guest. Full details, including line for the first block of bowl games, to be posted Monday).
Thanks to everyone for understanding my need to keep my plays under my hat a little bit with me being in contention in the Hilton SuperContest (currently tied for 11th place) and Leroy's Pro Challenge (currently tied for 2nd with Dr. Odds), though between my comments on the Tuesday night podcast, discussions in threads here throughout the week, and my picks published in Daily Racing Form it certainly wouldn't be too hard for my competition to figure out the majority of my plays. But I do want to keep some mystery.
Anyway, with the Hilton releasing contest plays on Friday afternoons, these are certainly no secret:
Buccaneers +3 at Falcons...Bucs' D nowhere near as bad as everyone making them out to be after MNF
49ers +6.5 at Dolphins...see below
Rams +3 vs. Seahawks...Rams getting healthier, Seahawks not to be trusted traveling with Wallace
Chiefs +5 v. Chargers...see below
Giants +3 at Cowboys...see below
Here is my brief write-ups that appear in today's print editions of Daily Racing Form and have been online since Thursday night:
49ers +6 1/2 at Dolphins: The Dolphins have overachieved this year, but with that success has come an overinflation of their lines from oddsmakers and bettors. They won last week going up to Toronto to beat the Bills, but while they've been a live underdog all season, they've failed to cover in their last four games as a favorite vs. the Ravens, Seahawks, Raiders, and Rams. And now along comes the resurgent 49ers, who two weeks ago traveled to Buffalo for a road victory and then knocked off the Jets at home. Anything over a field goal looks like value.
PLAY: 49ers for 1 unit.
Chiefs +5 1/2 vs. Chargers: Yes, the Chiefs are 2-11 in the standings, but they're 7-6 against the spread and nearly upset the Broncos last week. The Chiefs have played their best at home and now face the underachieving Chargers, who beat them only 20-19 in San Diego in Week 10.
PLAY: Chiefs for 1 unit.
Giants +3 at Cowboys: I won't hang the Giants for their loss to the Eagles last week (especially since I was on Philly). They're still the best overall team in the league. If anything, that loss gives them added incentive with the Panthers breathing down their neck for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, not that the Giants needed any home games to sweep through last year's playoffs. With renewed focus, I think they'll take their act on the road and take great joy in putting a nail in the coffin of the Cowboys' season.
PLAY: Giants for 1 unit.
Last week: 2-1 for a net profit 0.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 21-11-2, including 1-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 7.7 units.
I haven't totally decided which games I'm using in the Leroy's College Challenge because unfortunately some of my Hilton plays (Bucs +3, Rams +3, Giants +3) are line at only +2.5 at Leroy's...that key number is hard to give up.
Here are other games I'm considering using that I've either already bet or I'm waiting to bet. The numbers below are current market numbers:
Lions +17 vs. Colts
Bills +7.5 vs. Jets (unfortunately +6.5 in Leroy's contest)
Texans +3 (unfortunately +2.5 in Leroy's contest)
Steelers +3 (unfortunately +1.5 in Leroy's contest...they're killing me!!!)
Broncos +7.5 vs. Panthers
Vikings +3 EV (at least I get +3.5 in Leroy's contest)
With so many lines not being in my favor, I'm looking strongly at totals today.
Good luck, everyone.
Thanks to everyone for understanding my need to keep my plays under my hat a little bit with me being in contention in the Hilton SuperContest (currently tied for 11th place) and Leroy's Pro Challenge (currently tied for 2nd with Dr. Odds), though between my comments on the Tuesday night podcast, discussions in threads here throughout the week, and my picks published in Daily Racing Form it certainly wouldn't be too hard for my competition to figure out the majority of my plays. But I do want to keep some mystery.
Anyway, with the Hilton releasing contest plays on Friday afternoons, these are certainly no secret:
Buccaneers +3 at Falcons...Bucs' D nowhere near as bad as everyone making them out to be after MNF
49ers +6.5 at Dolphins...see below
Rams +3 vs. Seahawks...Rams getting healthier, Seahawks not to be trusted traveling with Wallace
Chiefs +5 v. Chargers...see below
Giants +3 at Cowboys...see below
Here is my brief write-ups that appear in today's print editions of Daily Racing Form and have been online since Thursday night:
49ers +6 1/2 at Dolphins: The Dolphins have overachieved this year, but with that success has come an overinflation of their lines from oddsmakers and bettors. They won last week going up to Toronto to beat the Bills, but while they've been a live underdog all season, they've failed to cover in their last four games as a favorite vs. the Ravens, Seahawks, Raiders, and Rams. And now along comes the resurgent 49ers, who two weeks ago traveled to Buffalo for a road victory and then knocked off the Jets at home. Anything over a field goal looks like value.
PLAY: 49ers for 1 unit.
Chiefs +5 1/2 vs. Chargers: Yes, the Chiefs are 2-11 in the standings, but they're 7-6 against the spread and nearly upset the Broncos last week. The Chiefs have played their best at home and now face the underachieving Chargers, who beat them only 20-19 in San Diego in Week 10.
PLAY: Chiefs for 1 unit.
Giants +3 at Cowboys: I won't hang the Giants for their loss to the Eagles last week (especially since I was on Philly). They're still the best overall team in the league. If anything, that loss gives them added incentive with the Panthers breathing down their neck for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, not that the Giants needed any home games to sweep through last year's playoffs. With renewed focus, I think they'll take their act on the road and take great joy in putting a nail in the coffin of the Cowboys' season.
PLAY: Giants for 1 unit.
Last week: 2-1 for a net profit 0.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season DRF record: 21-11-2, including 1-2-1 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 7.7 units.
I haven't totally decided which games I'm using in the Leroy's College Challenge because unfortunately some of my Hilton plays (Bucs +3, Rams +3, Giants +3) are line at only +2.5 at Leroy's...that key number is hard to give up.
Here are other games I'm considering using that I've either already bet or I'm waiting to bet. The numbers below are current market numbers:
Lions +17 vs. Colts
Bills +7.5 vs. Jets (unfortunately +6.5 in Leroy's contest)
Texans +3 (unfortunately +2.5 in Leroy's contest)
Steelers +3 (unfortunately +1.5 in Leroy's contest...they're killing me!!!)
Broncos +7.5 vs. Panthers
Vikings +3 EV (at least I get +3.5 in Leroy's contest)
With so many lines not being in my favor, I'm looking strongly at totals today.
Good luck, everyone.
Football picks for weekend of Dec. 5-7
The Thanksgiving weekend started shaky as I lost with the Lions and Seahawks, but fortunately I was able to bounce back with college football winners on Saturday with Baylor +21.5 vs. Texas Tech and Syracuse +21.5 vs. Cincinnati (the latter was a lucky back-door cover but I'll take it). Sunday was an even better day as I went 3-0 with my top plays (the Rams lost to the Dolphins but covered and the Panthers and Falcons pulled outrigth upsets of the Packers and Chargers, respectively).
In my Vegas football contests under the ViewFromVegas.com name, ...<< MORE >>
In my Vegas football contests under the ViewFromVegas.com name, ...<< MORE >>
Early Turkey Weekend football picks: Nov. 27-29
Today's blog includes two NFL games on Thanksgiving Day, two on Friday and two more on Saturday as we have a weekend football feast . . .<< MORE >>
NFL plays for Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 23
My apologies for posting this so late. I don't have time this morning to figure out why it didn't post Friday morning, but I don't think I'll hear any complaints from those who missed my 3-4 record against the spread in Saturday's college football.
I've been hotter in the NFL anyway, so hopefully that continues. Below are the 8 plays I did post in the "Tuley the Tout" thread on Friday morning in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums, where I'm always available to discuss my picks or other games as well. In addition, if you want detail on my reasoning for ...<< MORE >>
I've been hotter in the NFL anyway, so hopefully that continues. Below are the 8 plays I did post in the "Tuley the Tout" thread on Friday morning in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums, where I'm always available to discuss my picks or other games as well. In addition, if you want detail on my reasoning for ...<< MORE >>
