Tuley the Tout

Preakness picks, plus more for weekend of May 14-16, 2010

Tuley the Tout — 2010-05-14T18:08:00Z

It's another big sports weekend with the NBA and NHL playoffs moving into the conference finals, plus baseball rolling along as well as the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Here is a breakdown of the Preakness that I did for Bodog.com in a face-off article vs. fellow journalist Steve Davidowitz: http://www.bodog.com/horse-betting/face-off-review/2010-preakness-stakes.jsp

Here are my sports plays that I'm looking at for the weekend (baseball plays are for Friday, May 14, 2010)...for further updates, be sure to check out my weekly Tuley the Tout thread at the top of the ViewFromVegas.com Forums...here is this week's link: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussion.aspx?id=236507

MLB SIDES
Reds +115 vs. Cardinals...Harang vs. Garcia
Astros +135 vs. Giants...Paulino vs. Wellemeyer
Royals +120 vs. White Sox...Meche vs. Buehrle

NBA PLAYOFFS
Suns +6.5 vs. Lakers...Game 1 of their series is next Monday

NHL PLAYOFFS
Blackhawks +110 vs. Sharks...Game 1 of their series is Saturday

Also, be sure to see who other people in the VFV Forums are picking and join the discussion.

Kentucky Derby 136 plus Saturday, May 1, sports picks

Tuley the Tout — 2010-05-01T08:29:00Z

SATURDAY is Derby Day. I've gone on record on the ViewFromVegas Podcast (it's a one-hour show if you want to download the archive from this past Tuesday, April 27) as well as other radio shows and at the seminar at the Plaza in downtown Las Vegas Friday night as making #5 Line of David my top play in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. My overall view of the race can be read in a "face-off" piece against fellow handicapping Steve Davidowitz at the Bodog.com website .

If you want to make your own picks on the Derby, there's still time to VFV's free Triple Crown Contest in the Forums (must be a member to enter...membership is free). Go to the OFFICIAL Contest Thread for details and to post your $200 in mythical wagers on the Derby.

Here's my sports picks for Saturday:

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS
Reds-Cardinals UNDER 9...Bailey vs. Lohse...Paul Emmel behind the plate
Mets-Phillies UNDER 8 -120...Pelfrey vs. Halladay...Ron Kulpa behind the plate
Nationals-Marlins UNDER 9.5...Stammen vs. Volstad...Ted Barrett behind the plate
Pirates-Dodgers UNDER 8.5 -105...Duke vs. Monasterios...Doug Eddings behind the plate
Red Sox-Orioles UNDER 9.5 -120...Matsuzaka vs. Bergesen...Bill Miller behind the plate

MLB SIDES
Royals +230 vs. Rays...Davies vs. Price
Padres +110 vs. Brewers...Latos vs. Gallardo

NHL PLAYOFFS
Flyers +135 vs. Bruins

NBA PLAYOFFS
Celtics +7.5 vs. Cavaliers...Cavs were 2-3 ATS vs. Bulls...how hurt is LeBron?

Be sure to join us for the ViewFromVegas of everything that's going on Saturday in the VFV Forums .

2010 Final Four picks

Tuley the Tout — 2010-04-02T10:43:00Z

I like one game more than the other. I really like WEST VIRGINIA vs. Duke. The play has been available at +2.5 but I was hoping to get +3, which has popped up here and there but not widely available...in fact, it's looking like the line is more likely to drop to 2. I like the Mountaineers enough to pass on the points and take them +130 on the money line (that juicy price is also vanishing so grab it ASAP).

In the other national semifinal, I lean toward Butler vs. Michigan St...for a more compelling case, download the archive of our ViewFromVegas.com Podcast on March 30 in which well-known Las Vegas radio host John Kelly takes Butler as one of his top plays (he's 4-1 on the show with his top plays this tournament).

There is plenty of other discussions on the Final Four as well as baseball, horse racing and a whole lot more in the VFV Forums. Check out the forums and join the conversation.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

P.S. I can almost guarantee you that after the championship game is determined, I'll be looking to get the best price on the Butler-Michigan St. winner in next Monday's title game. I was hoping to get +5 with either team vs. the winner of Duke-West Virginia, though the Lucky's sports books here in Vegas have posted advance odds and have West Virginia favored by 2.5 over Butler and by 3 over Michigan St. This info can be found in this thread (which has a bunch of other great Final Four odds) and is yet another example of the type of information you can find at ViewFromVegas.com.

Tuley's NCAA opening-round picks

Tuley the Tout — 2010-03-16T15:25:00Z

I ended the college basketball regular season and conference tournaments on a major roll. I went 15-4 against the spread during Championship Week and have been on an extended run of 39-19 over the final 3+ weeks. However, as I warned in my weekly Tuley the Tout thread in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums (http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussion.aspx?id=226722), the NCAA Tournament is a whole different dynamic and I'm losing a lot of the edges I had with being able to look back at team's previous meetings during the regular season and common in-conference opponents, etc.

However, I do feel confident in my handicapping after such a nice run and looking forward to the NCAA Tournament. Here's what I'm looking at for my top 8 plays...I'll be posting all 32 games on Wednesday.

THURSDAY
San Diego St. +3 vs. Tennessee
Old Dominion +2 vs. Notre Dame
Northern Iowa +1 1/2 vs. UNLV
Florida +4 1/2 vs. BYU
UTEP +2 1/2 vs. Butler

FRIDAY
Louisville -1 vs. California
New Mexico St. +13 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
Siena +4 vs. Purdue.

Here's two more VFV programming notes.

Please tune in to the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast Show Tuesday night in which I will be joined by John Kelly and Dr. Odds in going over the NCAA Tournament. The show is live at 7 p.m. Pacific (the link can be found here: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussion.aspx?id=226888) and can also be downloaded after the show is complete.

Also, ViewFromVegas.com is having a bracket contest as well as a spread/total contest on the NCAA Tournament, so check out those threads at the top of the VFV Forums for details: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/User/Discussions.aspx

Best of luck in the tournament.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

NCAA b-ball picks for Friday, March 12 (Tuley on runs of 6-0, 10-2, 34-17)

Tuley the Tout — 2010-03-12T18:38:00Z

Here's hoping you've been following my daily NCAA basketball picks in the "Tuley the Tout" threads at ViewFromVegas.com the past three weeks: http://forums.viewfromvegas.com/user/Discussion.aspx?id=225355. After a slow start to the season, I've heated up the past three weeks as I've gone 34-17 (66.7%) against the spread, including 10-2 since this week's thread started on Monday and 3-0 each of the past two days. Hopefully I can continue that this weekend and into the NCAA Tournament next week.

Here are my 3 plays for Friday (going for third straight 3-0...a bonanza for parlay players

North Carolina St. +6 vs. Florida St....Wolfback won only meeting, and playing better now
Tulsa +3.5 vs. UTEP...lost twice to UTEP, but Tulsa needs game more and has home court
New Mexico St. +7 vs. Nevada...here, I think Nevada given took much for home court

Be sure to be a regular visitor to ViewFromVegas.com and especially the VFV Forums as we get more into March Madness. Another programming note is to mark your calendar for next Tuesday night, from 7-8 p.m. Pacific Time/10-11 p.m. Eastern, for the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast with our special guest co-host John Kelly back in studio to help us preview the NCAA tournament.

The ViewFromVegas website continues to grow. We received a nice boost in visitorship and people signing up this past week after yours truly and the website were mentioned in the sports betting blog of Chad Millman at ESPN.com. That's the link for accessing the story...the text is below for those who aren't an ESPN Insider...Millman didn't mention me and the site as much as the last time I appeared in his column, but I was the only Vegas expert mentioned twice as well as the only one to receive a link to his website, so that was awesome:

Five best sports books for watching the tourney

Monday, March 8, 2010

By CHAD MILLMAN

Know what I'm getting a lot of these days? Questions about where to watch the NCAA tournament in Las Vegas. Seems heading to The Strip for the first four days of March Madness is a really big deal. Who knew?

Anyway, I know how important it is to get expert information about the best places to go. And it's too much for one man -- namely me -- to handle. So I put out feelers to a bunch of wise guys, analysts and Vegas reporters I know to get the inside take on their faves. What's interesting -- and different than what you'd get by asking the average square -- is how they view what matters in a book. Comfort is nice. But they are a lot more interested in odds, limits and action. One thing they all agreed on: Get to the books early, even if it means going there straight from a night of gambling, without stopping in the room to recharge. "If you are in a group of more than two people, that means either camping out or staking your seats before 7 a.m. local time," Teddy Covers says. "Every major book in town is positively packed -- even the locals' joints like Green Valley Ranch or Red Rock."

So, herewith, are the consensus picks:

1. The M Resort -- The newbie on the scene won hands down. The M is on Las Vegas Boulevard, but it's a 15-minute drive from the main drag. It's not that big of a deal. I've made the trek half a dozen times. You'll spend more time stuck in traffic going from Mandalay to Caesars on a Saturday night. The book is nice, the chairs comfy and the food good. But the reasons it gets the nod from the wise guys are the high limits and the in-game wagering -- betting on spreads and odds that change with nearly every play -- which makes the book feel like the floor of a Wall Street trading firm during a game. "The best," Fezzik told me. "Not even close."

2. Hilton SuperBook -- "In this case," says Dave Cokin, a Vegas vet and radio host, "I think size does matter." The Hilton's SuperBook is the biggest sports book in the world. It also is consistently the first book to post point spreads, so any small mistakes can be taken advantage of if you are paying attention. Usually the Hilton opens a theater in the casino for spillover because, even with more than 300 seats, there isn't nearly enough room to accommodate all the degenerates visiting. "The theater," says Dave Tuley, who runs the Web site viewfromvegas.com, "is where Elvis played." If it was good enough for "The King" ...

3. MGM Grand -- This is the most theatrical of all the books, set up like the games are on stage and the bettors are in an amphitheater, one big audience rapt with attention. It's got 47 TVs, including 36 60-inch plasmas and three 16-foot by 12-foot monsters. And if you're lucky, you can get one of 50 or so seats with smaller individual TVs. But what gets the MGM on the list is the sports book skyboxes, the only ones in town. Granted, you'll have to bet like an NBA player to get one. But come on, it's just one weekend. What have you got to lose?

4. Mandalay Bay -- This is where you go when you've been to Vegas more often than you've been to the doctor in the past 10 years. You've done your time at the down-market joints and need some comfort. Mandalay has seats you'd like to steal and put in your house to replace your bed. And there are lots of them, around 300. For a book that's been around a little more than a decade, it still feels relatively new and, for Vegas at least, a little classy. Kind of like hanging out in the basement screening room at your richest high school buddy's house.

5. Caesars Palace -- The classic Vegas standby. Tuley reminded me that, years ago, The Mag did an issue called "99 Things To Do Before You Die." No. 5 on the list was visiting Caesars during the NCAA tourney. Honestly, it's not the most respected book on The Strip according to wise guys, but for four days in March, it will feel more like a tailgate than any other book. Lots of recently graduated frat guys choose it as their go-to spot for yearly trips to Vegas -- the same guys will step up to Mandalay in five years -- so be wary of backward hats and fist bumps. Get a seat around the coffee tables with individual TVs. But you might have to stay up all night to do it. There's no sleeping in the book, and security guards patrol all night to make sure people follow the rules.

Tuley the Tout: Picks for Weekend of Nov. 21-23

Tuley the Tout — 2009-11-20T15:26:00Z

Here are this weekend's free picks as posted in the weekly Tuley the Tout thread in the VFV Forums. Go there for the latest line moves and how they affect the selections.

But before getting to that, a few reminders that the ViewFromVegas.com Podcast has been moved up to 7 p.m. PST Tuesdays for the live show, which can be accessed along with the archives at http://www.lvrocks.com/details.php?id=149. This week's show was again co-hosted by John Kelly and if you missed it you already missed Dave Tuley's lean on Colorado +17 vs. Oklahoma St. Thursday night (the Buffaloes nearly pulled off the huge upset before losing 31-28 but still easily covering the spread) and guest handicapper "tpking" giving the Dolphins over the Panthers. Download the 11/17/09 podcast to hear more analysis of this weekend's games.

Also of note, you can still enter the ViewFromVegas.com weekly football contests to win your choice of a free month of LIVE ODDS service from vegasinsider.com or dinner with Dave Tuley. This is the last weekend of the college contest but the NFL contest will continue through the end of the regular season with college bowl contests and an NFL playoff contest to come. See the VFV Forums for details.

This week's free selections

By Dave Tuley

Plays marked with an asterisk(*) are ones I consider best bets and intending to definitely play in the Leroy's College Challenge and the Hilton SuperContest. Please keep in mind that the lines quoted below often differ from those contest lines, which are locked in earlier in the week. This thread is meant to aid in real-world betting and I will often say I like a game but that I'm waiting for the public to steam it higher (as I play almost exclusively underdogs) to get the best price possible.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL (68-49-1 this season for a net profit of 14.1 units)
Louisville +11.5 vs. South Florida...drifting up but has probably reached peak (tpking had it 27-22)
Iowa St. +15 vs. Missouri...steaming higher so wait for peak (tpking had it 31-23)
*Kentucky +9 vs. Georgia...correction, as makana posted, Dr. Bob went against us so line up to 9.5 (tpking had it 25-23)
UConn +6 vs. Notre Dame...6 looking more solid as M has dropped from 6.5 (tpking had it 26-23)
*Air Force +10 vs. BYU...looks like 10 is best we'll see unless you got rare 10.5 (tpking had Air Force winning outright, 31-30)
Memphis +23.5 vs. Houston...grab +24 if you can get it (tpking had it 33-19)
*Army +2.5 vs. North Texas (wait to see if we get +3 (tpking had Army winning outright, 22-16)

NFL FOOTBALL (48-28-1 this season for a net profit of 17.3 units)
Bills +9 vs. Jaguars...Jags shouldn't be favored by this much over anyone (see two weeks ago vs. Chiefs)
Chiefs +10 vs. Steelers...we're still seeing inflated lines even with dogs barking lately
Ravens +1 vs. Colts...Colts moved to favoritism from earlier in week, I like that, gonna keep fading Colts
Falcons +6.5 vs. Giants...and why are Giants still getting so much respect? +7 looking possible so wait
*49ers +6.5 vs. Packers...not sure we'll get 7 here, but will still play as this should be low-scoring tight game
Seahawks +11 vs. Vikings...Seattle can actually win this if they don't beat themselves, grab 11 before it disappears
Redskins +11 vs. Cowboys...more inflation, though I don't like backing this Skins team
Bears +3 vs. Eagles...grab the 3 with lowest juice possible in case it disappears
*Titans +5 vs. Texans...Tennessee playing like last year; Texans still not reliable as fave

Tuley the Tout's free Breeders' Cup picks plus football games of Nov. 6-7 (and FREE contests)

Tuley the Tout — 2009-11-06T14:03:00Z

Below is a link for my Breeders' Cup analysis of the 14 races being held Friday and Saturday, plus my college and pro football picks for this weekend. But before we get that, I want to let you know about a FREE contest we're holding at ViewFromVegas.com using the 14 races on the two days of the Breeders' Cup. You make $600 in mythical wagers on Friday, Nov. 6, and then $800 in mythical wagers on Saturday, Nov. 7. The person winning the most fake money will win 2-3 nights hotel room in Las Vegas on their next visit (you're on your own getting here), dinner for two with yours truly, and show tickets for two (and I might join you if I like the show LOL). All plays must be posted in the OFFICIAL contest thread so you must sign up (for free) for the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. The deadline for Friday's plays is 12:30 p.m. PST on Friday, so you must sign up and post your plays by then to be eligible. Click here for full details and to enter

We also hold weekly FREE college and pro football contests (picking 7 games against the spread in college football and 5 against the spread in the pros) in the Forums where the winner receives their choice of a free month of LIVE ODDS from vegasinsider.com or dinner with yours truly. Again, you just have to register in the VFV Forums (it's free and requires just a username and a valid e-mail address) and post your plays in the OFFICIAL threads. Here's this week's links:

VFV College Contest
VFV NFLContest

If you're reading this after the weekend of Nov. 6-7, 2009, you can look for current contests in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums
Good luck this weekend.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

Here is my analysis and picks for the 2009 Breeders' Cup starting at 12:35 p.m. PST Friday and continuing on Saturday: tuleythetout's take on 2009 Breeders' Cup

And here are my college and pro football picks for this weekend:

COLLEGE FOOTBALL (60-38-1 this season for a net profit of 18.2 units)
Western Michigan +20 vs. Michigan St. (could go even higher)
UConn +17 vs. Cincinnati (added play, this has been climbing up, +17.5 available, wait for peak)
Illinois +7 vs. Minnesota (pretty solid +7 now, so make sure you get at least that, iffy contest play at +6.5)
Maryland +6.5 vs. North Carolina St. (doubt we'll see 7 here, but let's wait)
Duke +10 vs. North Carolina (this is 10.5 at the Las Vegas Hilton so wait to see if others follow)
LSU +7.5 vs. Alabama (tpking only had it Bama 28-22, so this might be too close to call)
Oregon St. +7.5 vs. California (this should be closer to pick-em or a FG at most, but still grab +7.5 if you can)
Florida St. +8.5 vs. Clemson (Seminoles playing better for Bowden; starting to see +9 so wait)
Purdue +6.5 vs. Michigan (dont' think we'll see 7 here either, get +6.5 or +6 at worst)

NFL FOOTBALL (34-23 this season for a net profit of 3.3 units)
Bengals +3 vs. Ravens (line has been creeping up, hopefully worst we get is +3 -120; have faith Raven backers will steam it)
*Texans +9 vs. Colts (would love this to steam to 10, but anything over TD is OK)
Cardinals +3 vs. Bears (grab +3 now...I'd play back a little at Bears -2.5...also like over 45.5)
*Dolphins +11 vs. Patriots (Miami usually plays Pats well; plenty of +11 available to make it an official play but waiting for peak)
Panthers +14 vs. Saints (+14 is now gone in Vegas; if you didn't bet it early, wait to see if it goes back up)
Titans +4 vs. 49ers (Titans off the schneid; match up well with 49ers)
Chargers +5.5 vs. Giants (Giants struggling big time, get no break from scheduler here, wait for line to peak)
Cowboys +3 vs. Eagles (Cowboys have shown a lot lately; if you missed +3 -110 you'll probably have to lay -120 now)

Check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums for other people's plays, as well as making your own...and join in the handicapping discussions that can help make you a better bettor.

Tuley the Tout: Picks for weekend of Sept. 26-28

Tuley the Tout — 2009-09-25T10:58:00Z

Hey, everyone. I haven't posted on this actual blog in a while -- since I've mostly moved my daily selections to the ViewFromVegas.com Forums since that seems like the preferred method for most people, but I thought it was time to post one of these along with the e-mail blast to "subscribers" of the blog (simply click the SUBSCRIBE button on the page if you found this through some other method).

I'm off to a pretty good start to the football season as I'm 16-11 (59.2%) with all posted college plays and 10-5 (66.7%) in the NFL, though I wrote what I hope was an amusing piece in Saturday's issues of Daily Racing Form about how I'm only 2-4 with my "best bets" in that publication: http://drf.com/news/content/10.html

Here are my plays for this weekend, along with some line analysis for when the best time is to place the wagers. These are the kinds of posts I do every day in my Tuley the Tout posts in the Forums. Please visit every day and join the discussions.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL (16-11 this season for a net profit of 3.9 units)
Buffalo +3 vs. Temple (starting to see some +3.5, wait to make sure you get that)
Central Florida +11 vs. East Carolina (still OK at +10.5)
Fresno St. +16 vs. Cincinnati (actually at +16.5 now)
Army +10 vs. Iowa St. (solid number, not likely to change)
UAB +13.5 vs. Texas A&M (starting to see +14 so make sure you grab that)
Ball St. +32.5 vs. Auburn (also climbing upward, which we like)
Kentucky +21.5 vs. Florida (ditto)
Idaho +16.5 vs. Northern Illinois (ditto, get the +17)
Colorado St. +16.5 vs. BYU (anti-swagger play vs. BYU; also up to +17)
Louisville +14 vs. Utah (ditto on anti-swagger play)
Iowa +10 vs. Penn St. (Penn St.'s soft schedule could haunt them)
New Mexico St. +10 vs. New Mexico (saw my first +11 on this game, so wait)
Washington St. +45.5 vs. USC (anti-swagger, can't pass up all these points)
Arizona +2.5 vs. Oregon St. (looks like it's steaming toward 3, so wait)

NFL FOOTBALL (10-5 this season for a net profit of 4.6 units)
Titans +3 vs. Jets (missed at open, but grab now if can get -120 or -115 on the +3)
Buccaneers +7 vs. Giants (I grabbed +7, so this is official...lots of 6.5 so shop around)
Lions +6.5 vs. Redskins (another play against Skins; didn't see 7; don't need it for official)
Dropped my lean on Seahawks
Bills +6 vs. Saints (hard to jump in front of Saints' train, but took at 6...don't think it's going higher)
Dolphins +? vs. Chargers (currently +6...don't like travel off Monday night...small play for me but not contest play)
Bengals +4 vs. Steelers (grab +4 ASAP, don't get stuck with 3.5)
Cardinals -2 vs. Colts (was hoping for plus-points...layed -2...still playable at -2.5, don't wait to lay -3)

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (123-93-13 on the season and a net profit of 16.85 units)
Phillies-Brewers UNDER 8.5 -105... Brian Knight 22-12 last year, 15-13-1 this year

MLB UNDERDOGS (net loss of 8.65 units)
Reds +115 vs. Astros
Tigers +150 vs. White Sox

ViewFromVegas.com is also the place to go to get the view from the oddsmakers in Las Vegas with the NCAA, NFL and MLB polls from Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the up-to-date future-book odds for sports as well as horse racing's Breeders' Cup and the 2010 Kentucky Derby, plus insights and trends, and the best coverage of the top football handicapping contests in town, including free selections from the top handicappers and consensus plays of all contestants posted each weekend.

NBA down to final four; other picks; podcast preview

Tuley the Tout — 2009-05-19T18:20:00Z

Today's blog starts with the NBA playoffs moving into the conference championships with the Nuggets-Lakers series starting tonight and the Magic-Cavaliers on Wednesday. It should prove to be two interesting series. The Lakers and Cavaliers have been the favorites to reach the NBA Finals for a long time, but I don't see either as being a lock against the upstart Nuggets and Magic.

Before we get to today's plays, I want to post a reminder to tune into tonight's ViewFromVegas.com Podcast at 8 p.m. Pacific Time at: http://www.lvrocks.com/details.php?id=149 (be sure to click on the Cam & Chat to read/take part in the lively discussion that is often as entertaining as the actual show). We'll be giving the ViewFromVegas of Rachel Alexandra's victory over Mine That Bird in the Preakness, plus an update of our Triple Crown contest, plus a look at the NBA and NHL playoffs and everything else that is going on in the world of sports, including a discussion about Delaware approving sports betting last week. If you miss the live show, you can always catch it afterward or in the coming days in the archive at the above site (but with no live chat or webcam).

And now onto the picks:

NBA PLAYOFFS (11-15 for a net loss of 5.5 units)
Nuggets-Lakers UNDER 215 (slight lean to Nuggets +6.5)
Magic +8 vs. Cavaliers (Wednesday)

NHL PLAYOFFS (11-19 for a net loss of 2.45 units)
Blackhawks +300 series price vs. Red Wings (better than taking +180 in Game 2)

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (43-31-2 on the season and a net profit of 7.8 units)
No plays Tuesday...the best home-plate ump going on last year's stats was Dale Scott, who is working the Mets-Dodgers game tonight, at 20-13 with the under, but he's 3-5 this year with the under, plus the total is at 8 with Maine vs. Billingsly, so I have to pass.

MLB UNDERDOGS (41-56 for a net profit of 1.34 units)
Pirates +135 vs. Nationals
Giants +135 vs. Padres
Tigers +115 vs. Rangers
Angels +140 vs. Mariners

Good luck, everyone. And don't forget to check the Forums each day as plays will be posted in the Tuley the Tout thread. Plays also are getting sent more often (and in a more timely fashion) to followers of twitter.com/viewfromvegas and I expect that to become even more common as I can post from my cell phone without having to log on to a computer or laptop.

Preakness picks, plus baseball and NBA/NHL playoffs

Tuley the Tout — 2009-05-16T09:18:00Z

First off on the Tuley the Tout docket this weekend is my Preakness breakdown that I did for Bodoglife.com. Normally, if I miss out on a longshot, I don't like betting them back the next race as a lot of people get on the bandwagon too late when the value on the horse is long gone (like Win Willy in the Arkansas Derby), but in the case of Mine That Bird, a lot of people aren't giving him his due respect after his Derby upset, so I think there could be value on him in the Preakness. Click here if you want to sign up at the Bodog Racebook and get a 10% Bonus.

On Friday, I lost with my lone MLB umpire total as I had the Orioles-Royals UNDER 8.5 and the Royals won 8-1 (so close but yet so far); however, I made up for that with 2 MLB underdogs pulling the upset with the Dodgers +120 vs. the Marlins and the Mets +155 vs. the Giants

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (42-28-1 on the season and a net profit of 9.9 units)

Phillies-Nationals UNDER ???...they were rained out Friday and the scheduled umpire for Saturday was supposed to be Chuck Meriwether (21-12 with the under last year and 5-3 this year), so I want to bet the game he is behind the plate...I'll update this play Saturday in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums and to followers of twitter.com/viewfromvegas
Twins-Yankees UNDER 10...Marty Foster was 22-10-2 with the under last year, 4-2 this year
Royals-Orioles OVER 10 EV...Jerry Meals was 22-12 with the over last year, 5-1 this year

MLB UNDERDOGS (38-53 for a net loss of 0.11 units)

Diamondbacks +115 vs. Braves
Indians +150 vs. Rays

NBA PLAYOFFS (11-15 for a net loss of 5.5 units)

Magic-Celtics UNDER 186 points (Sunday)
Rockets +13 vs. Celtics (Sunday)

NHL PLAYOFFS (11-17 for a net loss of 0.45 units)

Blackhawks +170 vs. Red Wings (Sunday)
Hurricanes +180 vs. Penguins (Monday)

Weekend of May 9-10

Tuley the Tout — 2009-05-09T15:40:00Z

Friday was a losing day for my posted plays in my daily Tuley the Tout thread in the VFV Forums (that's the place to check each day for those interested in my selections...though Twitter is quicker for those with SMS) as I lost with the Capitals +180 vs. the Penguins and the Lakers-Rockets UNDER 195 and managed a split with MLB underdogs as the Giants beat the Dodgers as a +180 dog, but it turned out OK with my late MLB umpire totals going 2-1 with the loss being an even-money bet. Those umpire totals were only available for those who checked the thread late or for followers of twitter.com/viewfromvegas. Note: those plays are not included in the record for MLB umpire totals listed below or that would be another unit of profit.

I'll start the weekend with four MLB umpire totals, all of which are unders (I might have to look for a "grand salami" on under the total number of runs on the day), including the best under ump so far, John Hirschbeck:

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (36-21-1 on the season and a net profit of 11.7 units)

Cardinals-Reds UNDER 8...John Hirschbeck was injured last year, but 5-1 with the under this year
Nationals-Diamonbacks UNDER 9.5 EV...Paul Emmel was 21-13 with the under last year, 2-3 this year
Marlins-Rockies UNDER 9.5...Bill Miller was 21-12-3 with the under last year, 3-2 this year
Tigers-Indians UNDER 9.5...Brian O'Nora was 22-12 with the under last year, 3-3 this year

MLB UNDERDOGS (35-45 for a net profit of 1.41 units)

Cubs +140 vs. Brewers
Tigers +120 vs. Indians

NHL PLAYOFFS (9-12 for a net profit of 1.45 units thanks to the power of plus-money)

Penguins-Capitals UNDER 5.5 +110...burned before but coming back on the back-to-back

NBA PLAYOFFS (7-11 for a net loss of 5.1 units)

Nuggets +4 vs. Mavericks

Good luck, everyone.

Derby 135 selections; plus sports plays heading into weekend

Tuley the Tout — 2009-05-01T09:43:00Z

It's Derby Weekend, but there's a lot more going on with the NBA & NHL playoffs as well as a full slate of Major League Baseball plus the Hatton-Pacquiao fight on Saturday night. I'll be posting my picks in this thread thread throughout the weekend, starting with my Kentucky Derby breakdown that I did for Bodoglife.com along with Steve Davidowitz: http://www.bodoglife.com/horse-betting/expert-face-off/

I'm glad to put Thursday behind me as I went 0-2 with MLB underdogs and also lost with the Blazers vs. the Rockets. I'll start with two MLB umpire totals as that's where I've had the most success lately.

MLB UMPIRE TOTALS (27-11-1 on the season and a net profit of 13.7 units)

Marlins-Cubs UNDER ...Brian O'Nora 22-12 with the under last year, 3-1 this year
Angels-Yankees OVER ...Hunter Wendelstedt 20-12-2 with the over last year, 3-2 this year
Red Sox-Rays UNDER ..John Hirschbeck 3-1 with the under this year

MLB UNDERDOGS (27-35 for a net loss of 0.14 units)

Cardinals EV vs. Nationals
Padres +120 vs. Dodgers
Royals +160 vs. Twins

NHL playoffs (6-7 for a net profit of 2.3 units thanks to the power of plus-money)

Ducks +200 vs. Red Wings

NBA PLAYOFFS (6-7 for a net loss of 1.7 units)

No plays for Friday

Note: Over the weekend, I'll post more plays in the VFV Forums.

Tuley the Tout: picks for Tuesday, April 28, plus podcast

Tuley the Tout — 2009-04-28T13:39:00Z

First, things first, don't miss the ViewFromVegas Podcast at 8 p.m. Pacific on Tuesday night at lvrocks.com (including what should be a lively chat room), or at least catch the archive, which will be available shortly after 9 p.m. and through the week. Crick from our ViewFromVegas Forums will be our special guest to go over the Kentucky Derby field and offer his opinions on the race. We'll also have other guests on, plus discuss the NBA and NHL playoffs and baseball as well. It should be an information-packed show.

Now to the touting. I didn't have any official MLB umpire totals plays yesterday as all but one series was starting anew (note: I did offer up one play to those who Twitter -- the hot, new popular instant messaging website that uses text messages to send people fast updates. The play lost, so this isn't the greatest endorsement, but those who want me to send them last-minute suggested plays can sign up at twitter.com and agree to follow twitter.com/viewfromvegas or go through the link on the ViewFromVegas.com home page).

Otherwise, I had a profitable day on Monday. I split my 4 baseball underdog plays but showed a profit of 0.3 units as the Cardinals +130 and Red Sox EVEN won. In the NHL, I won with both the Blackhawks +120 and the Ducks +110 as they closed out their respective series, and added a win in the NBA with the Nuggets +2.5 as they routed the Hornets 121-63.

TUESDAY'S PLAY

MLB umpire totals (23-10-1 for a net profit of 10.8 units)

Nationals-Phillies UNDER 9.5 -120...Dana DeMuth was 20-13 with unders last year, though 2-3 this year
Marlins-Mets OVER 9.5...Jerry Meals was 22-12 with the over last year, 2-1 this year
Pirates-Brewers UNDER 8.5...Wally Bell was 19-11-6 with unders last year, 2-1 this year
Rays-Twins UNDER 8...Bill Hohn was 16-10 with the under last year, 2-1 this year

MLB underdogs (26-28 but still a profit of 5.26 units)

Pirates +135 vs. Brewers
A's +135 vs. Rangers

NHL playoffs (6-7 for a net profit of 2.3 units thanks to the power of plus-money)

No plays...just going to enjoy the Game 7 drama...plus totals are shaded the right way with Rangers-Caps over and Canes-Devils under

NBA playoffs (6-4 for a net profit of 1.6 units)

Good luck, everyone...and be sure to check the ViewFromVegas.com Forums for my Tuley the Tout threads every day.

Picks for the weekend of April 25-26

Tuley the Tout — 2009-04-25T11:03:00Z

It's Saturday, and the NFL Draft is a big focus today, but there's lots of other sporting action going on today. My picks are below, but be sure to check out the horse racing threads in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums today with a lot of great cards around the country.

I went 2-1 with MLB underdogs on Friday with wins on the Phillies +120 and Dodgers +110 but a loss on the Yankees (due to the Red Sox getting two-run homer in bottom of the ninth and then winning in extra innings) for a profit of +1.3 units. I went 1-0 in the NBA with the Trail Blazers rallying to cover vs. the Rockets but 0-1 in the NHL with the Rangers getting shut out by the Capitals.

We're back with MLB umpire totals after taking Friday off with all weekend series starting anew. For the year, we're 22-8-1 for a net profit of 11.9 units:

SATURDAY'S PLAYS
Braves-Reds UNDER 9...Mike Estabrook 15-7 with the under last year (sorry this one already started, though I'm thinking I won't get any complaints from those receiving this via e-mail or on the tuleythetout.com blog as it's 6-0 in the 2nd inning)
Blue Jays-White Sox UNDER 9.5 EV...Marty Foster 22-10-2 with the under last year

MLB underdogs (21-24 but still a profit of 2.86 units)

Brewers +120 vs. Astros
Twins +120 vs. Indians

NHL playoffs (3-5 but still a profit of 0.8 units thanks to big-priced underdogs)

Penguins +120 vs. Flyers
Flames +140 vs. Blackhawks

NBA playoffs (4-3 for a net profit of 0.7 units)

Spurs +4.5 vs. Mavericks

Be sure to check the VFV Forums every day and find the Tuley the Tout thread to get my current picks.

Dave

Tuley the Tout: 2 MLB plays for Friday, plus weekend NHL/NBA picks

Tuley the Tout — 2009-04-17T21:09:00Z

Thursday was one of those days that every handicapping dreams of where almost everything went right. I went 2-0 with my MLB underdog plays (cashing with the Indians +175 vs. the Yankees -- though followers should have been able to get +190 -- and the Padres +115 vs. the Mets) 3-0 with my umpire totals (the Padres-Mets OVER, the Marlins-Braves UNDER and the Angels-Mariners UNDER), plus 1-1 with two NHL playoff games (losing with the Flames +145 vs. the Blackhawks after the Flames led 1-0 and 2-1 before losing late, but then winning with the Ducks +190 vs. the Sharks in a 2-0 upset of the top seed).

That brings my record in these three categories to :

MLB underdogs: 17-14 for a net profit of 7.46 units thanks to the power of plus-money

MLB umpire totals: 12-5-1 for a net profit of 6.4 units (after starting the season 0-3)

NHL playoffs: 1-1 for a net profit of 0.9 units

I hope a lot of you have been following along. I hope to keep it going, though no one can expect to continue at such a lofty win rate (but I 'll certainly try). Remember that I only write these "Tuley the Tout" blogs about once a week, but my daily plays can be found each day in the ViewFromVegas Forums. We have a lot of other sharp handicappers in all sports, especially in horse racing, so it pays to check back every day.

There are no MLB umpire plays that qualify today with most series starting anew for the weekend, so check back Saturday morning for those plays. Here are some of my plays for the weekend. I welcome any questions in the VFV Forums.

MLB
Dodgers +155 vs. Phillies (Friday)
Braves +105 vs. Pirates (Friday)

NHL
Blues +165 vs. Canucks (Friday)
Flames +135 vs. Blackhawks (Saturday)

NBA
Bulls +8.5 vs. Celtics (Saturday)
Heat +5 vs. Hawks (Sunday)

Good luck, and see you at ViewFromVegas.com

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

went 0-2 with my underdogs Wednesday (an ugly 9-0 loss by the White Sox and an equally embarrassing 19-6 loss by the Orioles), but I still claim a winning record on the season at 15-14 and a net profit of +4.56 profits thanks to the plus-money on dogs.

I was bailed out on the day as I went 2-1 with my umpire totals, winning with the Marlins-Braves OVER 9 and the Padres-Mets UNDER 9.5 while losing earlier in the day with the Red Sox-A's UNDER 9 -120 (which was a bit of a bad beat as Tim Wakefield had a no-hitter through 7 innings and the score was 2-0 until Boston scored 6 runs in the top of the eighth and eventually won 8-2. For the season, my MLB umpire totals are 9-5-1 for a net profit of +3.4 units.

I've got 5 plays for Thursday

Padres +115 vs. Mets
Indians +175 vs. Yankees

Marlins-Braves UNDER 9...Dana DeMuth was 20-13 with the under last year
Padres-Mets OVER 7.5 EV...Gary Darling was 23-11 with the over last year
Angels-Mariners UNDER 8...Marty Foster was 22-10-2 with the under last year

MLB picks getting hot after slow start

Tuley the Tout — 2009-04-12T16:42:00Z

After going 3-1 and +2.9 units on Friday with my underdo, I went 3-1 again on Sunday for +2.45 units (winning with the Mets +130 vs. the Marlins, Dodgers +110 vs. Diamondbacks, and Red Sox +105 vs. Angels while losing with the A's vs. the Mariners) and now stand at 10-9 on the season and more importantly with the plus-money from the dogs putting me at +3.16 units.

I also went 2-0 with my umpire over/under plays withe the Mets-Marlins over 9.5 (barely) and the Nationals-Braves under 9. That got me back to .500 at 3-3 on the season and just -0.3 units.

Here are my plays for Sunday:

Phillies +125 vs. Rockies
Royals +125 vs. Yankees (the first five inning bet might be better)

Mets-Marlins UNDER 7.5...Bob Davidson was 22-10-3 with the under last year
Cubs-Brewers UNDER 8.5...Angel Hernandez was 18-12-4 with the under last year
Rangers-Tigers UNDER 10...Bill Hohn was 16-10 with the under last year (just 7.5 runs per game)

Note: the two totals I passed on Saturday -- because I didn't feel as confident about them despite their home-plate umps hitting at better than 60% -- went 0-2, so I'm glad I made those decisions. For those who are curious, the one I'm passing on Sunday is Brian O'Nora (22-12 with the under last year, 1-0 this year) because the Giants-Padres total is 6.5, which even though it's nice with Lincecum on the mound of S.F., it's still too low for me to try to beat.

Monday, April 6: End of college b-ball season, start of MLB season (sort of)

Tuley the Tout — 2009-04-06T04:20:00Z

Monday is a changing of the seasons in a way as the NCAA basketball season comes to a close as North Carolina faces Michigan St. for the national title, while Major League Baseball starts its season with opening days around the country (OK, so the season technically opened Sunday night in Philadelphia, but I'm sticking to the theme here!!!).

North Carolina is favored by 7.5 points at most Las Vegas sports books as of Sunday night with the Leroy's chain of books holding the line at 7. The total ranges from 152 to 153 depending on where you shop. I have no opinion on the total. Most readers of mine know I love underdogs, but I can't see the Spartans staying with the Tar Heels the entire game. However, I do think Michigan St. can stay close early with the help of what could be a pretty good home-court advantage (despite the fact these teams played earlier in the year on this same court and NC romped 98-63), so I think the best play of the night is Michigan St. +4 in the first half.

If you're looking for more help, check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums where you can find the picks of the top 3 handicappers in our spread/total contest as their competition comes down to the final game as well as checking out all the prop bets offered here in Vegas.

If you had been on the site Sunday, you would have seen I gave out the Braves +120 to upset the Phillies in the first game of the baseball season. Here's my picks for some of Monday's games as I think you have to look for the dogs to bark early as the oddsmakers don't always know which teams are going to jell at the start of the season:

Dodgers +120 vs. Padres
Rockies +155 vs. Diamondbacks
Rays +135 vs. Red Sox
A's +135 vs. Angels

We have a bunch of other handicappers looking at baseball every day in the Forums, too, so be sure to check out the other threads, as well as our upcoming coverage of the Masters (the odds are already posted, and we're going to have our very own Mr.OutsideVegas filing a report from Augusta this week).

I also challenge any website to match the amount of winning horse plays given out lately (our members have shared in big-price winners, exactas, trifectas and pick 4s time and time again this past week). ViewFromVegas is the place to be for day-to-day horse racing threads as well as getting everyone ready for the Kentucky Derby. Follow along with our hot handicappers and join in the discussion.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

P.S. Don't forget to tune into our live podcast each Tuesday night at 8 p.m. VFV Time by clicking the link on the ViewFromVegas.com home page or going directly to lvrocks.com. If you can't listen live, you can download the archive anytime after the show ends.

Final Four (and NIT title) picks, plus WSOP pre-qualifer hosted by VFV

Tuley the Tout — 2009-04-02T09:01:00Z

This has been a very profitable NCAA tournament for yours truly, Dave Tuley, as my top plays have gone 14-6 (70 percent) against the spread as posted in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. I've also done well in the other tourneys, and before we get to Saturday's Final Four in Detroit, I also have a play in Thursday's NIT championship game at Madison Square Garden in New York;

Thursday:
Baylor-Penn St. UNDER 138 points (I've done well with Big 10 teams with the under in postseason games and see no reason to stop now)

Saturday:
Michigan St.-UConn UNDER 134 (same as above)
Villanova +7.5 vs. North Carolina (Villanova plays better defense than N.C., and the Wildcats have many weapons and catch match the Tar Heels depth-wise...also worth a look on the money line as many books are dealing +300 on the underdog

Are you a poker player? Ever dream of playing in the World Series of Poker? If so, read on . . .

The Bodog poker site is hosting a big WSOP qualifer on Sunday and ViewFromVegas.com has been offered a chance to host a pre-qualifer on Friday, April 3, at 5:05 p.m. VFV Time (for the unitiated, that's Pacific time/8:05 p.m. Eastern/7:05 p.m. Central).

Unlike our last free contest, this one will cost $11 to play ($10 buy-in plus $1 entry fee). The top two finishers will earn a $270 ($250+20) seat into the actual WSOP qualifier on Sunday at 1:35 p.m. VFV Time in which Bodog will award WSOP packages worth more than $12,000 (which includes $10,000 entry fee into the WSOP Main Event at the Rio starting on July 3 plus $2,000 in travel expenses) to the top four finishers. Bodog will also provide updates of its qualifiers on its website throughout the WSOP so family/friends can follow along, and I'll also do that at ViewFromVegas.com if we can get someone in the field.

If you're already a member of Bodog and have the poker software downloaded, you can proceed straight to the SCHEDULED TOURNAMENTS area and look under the PRIVATE tab for the "WSOP ViewFromVegas Pre-Qualifer" tournament and sign up. When you go to pay the $11 (which can be done in tournament credits for regular players at Bodog, it'll ask you for the password, which is tuley.

If you don't have an account, you'll have to register at Bodoglife.com and make a deposit. Some credit cards won't be accepted; I've found the VirtualPin option works just fine. You'll need to look to see what works for you.

Note: I know it's short notice and I tried to pick Friday's starting time to accommodate those back East as well as making it doable for those on the West Coast. If for some reason you can't start playing at that exact time, keep in mind that you can pull a Phil Hellmuth. He is known for showing up late at the start of tournaments. All you need to do is pre-register and when the tourney starts, the software will automatically seat you and just rake the blinds, which start out pretty small. It still might be worth your while to take a shot with such a low entry fee and such a high possible payday.

Tuley the Tout: Elite 8 selections

Tuley the Tout — 2009-03-28T13:33:00Z

After going 10-4 in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, I went 2-0 with my plays in the Sweet 16 with Villanova and the UConn-Purdue under, but then went 0-2 on Friday with Syracuse and Gonzaga (it wasn't a good night for underdog players as all four favorites covered).

But now we move on to the Elite 8 with two games on Saturday and two games on Sunday. I'll make a suggestion on each game but specify which is my best bet each day:

SATURDAY
UConn-Missouri UNDER 150
Villanova +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh (BEST BET)

SUNDAY
Michigan St. +7 vs. Louisville (BEST BET)
North Carolina-Oklahoma over 160

For my reasoning behind the picks, check out the ViewFromVegas.com Forums as well as checking out the plays of the other hot handicappers on the site, or to share your own views and plays.

Have a great weekend.

Yours truly,
Dave Tuley

Tuley the Tout 10-4 so far in NCAA tourney; Sweet 16 picks

Tuley the Tout — 2009-03-26T14:07:00Z

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament was a little bit of a roller-coaster ride for yours truly, Dave Tuley, as I went 7-1 against the spread in the Thursday/Friday games with my top selections as published in the Daily Racing Form as well as in the ViewFromVegas.com Forums. I then continued the hot streak with a 3-0 record on Saturday, but followed that with an 0-3 mark on Sunday. It was a bummer to end the weekend on that note, but I'll take a 10-4 record anytime.

Here are my top four plays for the Sweet 16 games on this Thursday and Friday. I'll post again Saturday morning for my selections on the Elite 8.

THURSDAY
UConn-Purdue UNDER 135
Villanova +2.5 vs. Duke

FRIDAY
Syracuse +1 vs. Oklahoma
Gonzaga +8.5 vs. North Carolina

For my comments on all of the Sweek 16 round of games, including my reasoning behind the picks, listen to the archive of the ViewFromVegas Podcast, which can be accessed on the ViewFromVegas.com home page or lvrocks.

And, as always, you can ask questions of yours truly or other handicappers about any games (or share your own views) in the ViewFromVegas Forums.